Canada’s GDP suffered a decline in growth from 0.4% to 0.1% at the start of March. With its second data release in a month giving it a blue moon quality, does anyone expect things to get better? Nope – well, maybe one or two pundits. But CAD may just go a little crazy. Check out the action on Thursday 29th March at 1.30pm GMT.
Canada hasn’t had the best month. Trump openly admitted to making up stats in a meeting with Trudeau while Crude Oil has given the Loonie a good ride. Talk at the moment suggests a rate hike could be on the cards next week; inflation hit a 3-year high and Trump’s new deadline for NAFTA puts both Mexico and Canada under threat of steel tariffs.
The dollar jumped half a cent as the week closed on Friday 24th and markets are likely to be choppy as local markets open on Monday 27th.
CAD sank to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2017 at the end of last week (76.41cents) signalling troubling times for the north American currency.
Clashes over oil stockpiles between OPEC and the States have ricocheted sending the Looney (CADs alter ego) into a spiral. Deeply dependent on their oil reserves, Wednesday’s Crude Oil Inventories at 2.30pm GMT, could change its fortunes again.
But oil isn’t the half of it. Unhappy grumblings about the NAFTA in Canadian economic circles and the potential looming trade war with their southern neighbour weren’t helped by Trump’s glibly delivered false news data in his meeting with Trudeau. Admitting he made up details about a trade deficit, Trump seems to have no qualms about upsetting the States’ friends around the world.
A speech by Reserve Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins could have a few tidbits to entice traders to make a call on how to close the week at 6.45pm GMT on 22nd. But CAD investors will be watching two key figures apart from Trudeau and Trump this Friday.
Rocky CPI figures (23rd 12.30pm GMT) will be watched hoping for another gain after the surprisingly large 0.7% against the 0.4% predicted last month. Core Retail Sales, Friday 23rd March at 12.30pm GMT, are more volatile heading down to -1.8% against 0.1 gain predicted last month. This month it could go either way but another negative would sting Looney bulls badly.
Getting shoppers through the door and hearing the ring of the tills is the great driver of almost every domestic economy. This week Canada’s shopping habits are under the spotlight on Friday 22nd with six events at 12.30pm GMT.
The monthly Consumer Price Index is one of only a few non-seasonally adjusted figures and is taken very seriously due to its wide remit and early release. It has a direct connection to inflation. Last month it crept from negative to neutral (0.0%) and that should stay the same though a positive figure would be well received.
Core Retails Sales is far less stable having gone from 1.5% down to -0.1% and back to 0.7% in the last three months. Forecasts are anybody’s guess at this point.
Also out at the same time are Common CPI yearly change, Median CPI yearly change, Retails Sales monthly figures and Trimmed CPI yearly change. Both Median CPI and Trimmed CPI have been regaining ground, while Common CPI hasn’t changed for some time, but Retails Sales is volatile and heading towards the negative if the current curve is any indication.
Some are worried that Trudeau’s changes could lead them towards recession so traders will be poring over the data to see if the public are confident about spending.
The main market news for CAD tops and tails the week. Wholesale sales (1.30pm GMT) look set to drop back from 1.0% to 0.5% on Monday 24th while the big news is the monthly GDP figures at 1.30pm on Friday 28th. These have seen a lot of movement over the first half of the year but forecasters suggest no movement this time around sticking at 0.2%.
The Canadian dollar is a cheeky little market that spells serious fun for Tiql players looking to spread their wings from USD and oil. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is doing his darnedest to put Canada on the big stage globally and with a safe stash of oil and other potential reserves, there are plenty of countries looking to do business with ‘Murka’s saintly looking northern neighbour.