Top Tiql Tips: 22nd to 26th Jan 2018

Guess who got her Tiql Tips?

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

EUR: hotting up on the continent
When did the Eurozone start looking so good? Bearish attitudes to the US dollar this week make the euro an even better prospect. Some analysts are surprised as surging stock markets and booming economies are a world away from where many though Europe would be right now. A quick glance at the European indices on Monday morning showed green from top to bottom. But what will the rest of the week bring? Two main events stand out.

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th) is a hub of business bigwigs and political heavyweights from across the globe. Meetings shaping economic policy and international business agendas go alongside whispered conversations that could be worth billions in the coffee bars and corridors. Listen out for any news concerning eurozone countries, currencies and businesses.

This event is likely to affect EURUSD and Dax.

Also big news this week, the European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 25th January at 7.45am GMT) currently stands at 0.00%. No change is forecast, which sounds like nothing. However, if the zone’s economy is doing well and inflation is looming, there is an argument for rates to rise. Pay very close attention to the ECB Press Conference (Thursday 25th at 8.30am GMT) for clues to the future direction of the central bank’s interest rate policy. Traders will react if there are suggestions of a rise on the way and the EUR could go on a ride.

Likely to affect all EUR pairs.

USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week
There are lots of trading events affecting the dollar and US stock markets this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP. It seems not even political catastrophes like a shut down government are going to put traders off their business. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, USD traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.

One global event any USD players might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!

Although Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question due to domestic trouble, his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets.

Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).

Crude Oil Inventories has been in major decline since mid-November 2017 with an astonishing -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were slightly off-key with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to believe them this week either (Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT). If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.

Finally, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP (Friday 26th at 8.30am GMT). Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.

JPY: what’s the outlook for the Bank of Japan?
Things are rather depressed. The current long-term monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan has seen inflation creeping upwards but it’s not getting anywhere near the 2% target. Recent growth in the economy and rather too rosy expectations of medium to long-term rise in economic output makes Bank insiders think no change in policy is the way to go.

December’s solitary voice of dissent, newcomer Goushi Kataoka, argued that additional quantitive easing should be implemented to bolster the economy as the likelihood of inflation speeding up was so remote. The target for 10-year-bonds is 0% yield while interest rates stand at -0.1%. It’s not a pretty picture.

With the next update in March, few see a change in policy this month. Some analysts are even predicting current policy will stick until at least 2019. But Kataoka has cracked open the door to allow different opinions so the 8-1 ratio may change. If that happens, you can be sure markets will react.

After the Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and Rate are announced (lunchtime Monday 22nd), the Press Conference (1.30am GMT Tuesday 23rd) should provide the most action on the markets for this event.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Jan 23
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    03:55:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
  • Wed Jan 24
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q
  • Thu Jan 25
    12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Fri Jan 26
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Prelim GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Advance GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
    14:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    14:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: The Aussie has come up against some supply. While there may be more upside to go on this pair, it makes sense that there may be some correction on this pair. The half way back near the 200 SMA and previous supply might be of interest to the buyers. Right now, 0.80 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Gold: Gold has had a good run and is trading near some potential supply. Traders will be watching the 1345 zone to see how price behaves this week. If we get a move down, 1300 would make a good target for the bears and a likely place for the buyers to leg into any potential moves up.

GBPUSD: We are trading near a key level on cable. 1.40 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Crude Oil: The bulls have had a good run and we could imagine some covering going on at this level perhaps. The chart below outlines the key levels on crude as we approach the end of January.

USDJPY: Still range bound for now. The key levels to watch are 110.00 and 111.75 to see where traders can push this to. Bank of Japan news out early Tuesday and the speech on Friday might give this pair enough volatility to test these levels.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week

US trading fun

Traders are excited about US currency and stock market trading opportunities this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP so it seems no political mishaps are going to put them off. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, dollar traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.

World Economic Forum

One global event you might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!

Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question as the US government shut down started last week. But his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets. Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).

Oil

Crude Oil Inventories has been in terminal decline since mid-November 2017 with a stonking -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were completely wrong with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to listen on Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT either. If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.

US Advance GDP

If all that isn’t enough, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP on Friday 26the at 8.30am GMT. Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.

 

 

Top Tiql Tips: your weekly market guide (8th to 12th Jan)

Here’s to a new year of trading in 2018

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and highlighting some dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: PPI & CPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) (Thursday 11th January 1.30pm GMT) has been stable at 0.4% for three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Friday 12th January 1.30pm GMT) has been rather more volatile with no clear trend for many years.

Both data impact how the markets view USD because of their connection to the domestic economy, which is the key factor in USD value. PPI impacts inflation and it’s interesting to note recent news, according to the FT, that market investors are currently choosing funds that protect against inflation. The target rate of 2% inflation is close to how things stand so the forecast seems reasonably steady for Federal Reserve Bank’s new Chair, Powell, when he starts next month.

We are sure Powell will be keeping a close eye on the less-predictable CPI due the Reserve Bank’s mandate to contain inflation. A low figure this week will probably be seen by most as a good result.

Oil: politics affects prices
This week Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 10th January 3.30pm GMT) is likely to see another drop but what that does to USD remains to be seen.

In 2017 OPEC worked hard to manipulate the price of oil by agreeing to reduce production levels. Other like-minded oil producers, such as Russia, joined them. Stock levels were high for a long time and prices didn’t recover as well as they’d have liked leading to a change in how things work in Saudi Arabia. This hit the news last week as 11 Saudi princes were arrested for demonstrating against their newly imposed utility bills. Life is so hard as a modern Middle East prince. So hard.

There are mixed views on whether oil production overall will rise this year and that is a determining factor in price. To ensure its arms sales to the Middle East go smoothly, Russia is unlikely to renege on its deal with OPEC. Other oil-producing countries face war, poor infrastructure and natural declines in production leading some to declare supplies will fall and prices will increase.

On the other hand, the US has not been working with OPEC to reduce output and shale production is on the rise boosting US oil inventories. Trump’s America First policy means it is likely to push forward with production and that could keep prices low. This would be good news for US domestic gas guzzlers as well as manufacturers in the heartland of Trump’s power base. In an election year, he is sure to have this in mind.

GBP: Manufacturing Production monthly
Post-Brexit Britain has been on a bumpy economic ride. Confusion over what Brexit actually means and posturing in the EU negotiations has resulted in nervous markets. While UK unemployment is at its lowest for 40 years, productivity appears so subdued that the Bank of England raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.

It would be fair to say that the UK has been the slowest to recover from the crash of 2008 of all the advanced economies. This week Manufacturing Production monthly (Wednesday 10th January 9.30am GMT) will shed light on progress. If the Brits start making more and selling more both domestically and internationally, some of those jitters might calm down. And for the last 3 months manufacturing production has been rising nicely. Maybe the EU market isn’t such a big deal?

Only joking – news that broke on 7th January 2018 suggested UK importers may face massive increases in upfront cost increases. And it’s a shame then that analysts saw December’s Manufacturing Production monthly figure of 0.7% as something of a peak. They reckon it is going to fall back to as low as 0.1%. Let’s be positive – at least it is in the black. But if they’re right or if it’s even worse than that, markets really won’t like it. Manufacturing Production makes up about 80% of total industrial production and it’s quick to react to consumer conditions. All in all, GBP is starting 2018 on the back foot.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Mon Jan 08
    • 15:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
  • Wed Jan 10
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Jan 11
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
  • Fri Jan 12
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin almost reached the $20,000 level before falling off dramatically before the end of the year. Right now we are ping-ponging in a range between $13,000 and $17,000. Any breaks below the $13,000 support and $12,000 and $11,000 has attracted buyers before.

USDJPY: This pair has been moving in a range now for some time. We have resistance at 113.75 and significant previous demand at 1114.50. 112 is supporting with the 200 simple moving average close by.

Crude Oil: Looking at the weekly and we can can there may be some supply near $63. We might see some tactical shorting here but this looks bullish above $60.

EURUSD: we have come off of the highs with sellers coming in at the August highs. A retracement to the halfway back and previous demand may see this pair pull back to 118 before retesting the highs.

GBPUSD: Cable is still technically in a channel making higher highs and higher lows. There could be some unfinished business at 1.38 on this pair, which was the support level dramatically broken on the Brexit vote. If you’d been long on this pair for a while, it might be a level to cover. The bears might be eyeing this level as well as a point of interest for a short play.​

Gold: Gold bugs will be bullish on this market above 1300. We have moved back into the channel again and the recent highs of 1357 could be retested. Below 1300, this starts to look bearish and we may start to see a deeper correction.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

2017: 3 events that shook the trading world

2017 – surprise!

Are natural disasters in the top three?

Mother nature showed her power this year sending Hurricanes Maria, Harvey and Irma across US territory and beyond, a massive earthquake to Mexico, monsoon flooding in Bangladesh. mudslides in Colombia and landslides in Sierra Leone. The human toll has been unfathomable and the markets didn’t like them either, though the US administration seems to think we don’t need to worry. But these weren’t the biggest events to hit the markets in 2017.

Bitcoin shock: a strong contender

December has brought a late contender to event of the year with the Bitcoin surge. Prompted by the cryptocurrency’s ascendency to two major futures exchanges in the U.S., investors flooded to buy Bitcoin though a few days after the launch prices looked like they were subsiding.

Sky-rocketing prices

Bitcoin reached a high of $19,375 on the Coinbase exchange on December 18th as trading launched on the giant CME exchange and its Chicago rival CboE Global Markets. The decision to list the currency legitimised Bitcoin and raised its profile enormously. Since the announcement was made, demand pushed the price through ceiling after ceiling and the media shouted frantic headlines warning potential investors about bubbles. At the time of writing, there has been no crash.

The problem with Bitcoin

The problem with Bitcoin for some is that it is outside the control of the existing authorities. Like the internet under net neutrality is equally accessible by all, Bitcoin is not the currency of one nation or even one region. It has no physical form and none of the established national or international authorities are in control of the supply. They don’t like that.

Bitcoin pros and cons

Bitcoin is limited by design to a maximum of 21 million coins. Supporters see it as a natural global successor to national physical currencies and exchange rates. Features of cryptocurrencies called blockchain will mean they can also securely replace other functions in banking and business so the potential is astronomical. Critics, including Singapore’s financial watchdog, warn that the lack of physical properties mean it is inherently valueless and investors will lose out when they come to withdraw their funds. Some say these critics are running scared.

Should everyone take Bitcoin seriously now?

The short answer is yes. In stark contrast to the doom and gloom of the threatened financial system, Ronnie Moas, the independent analyst who forecast this rise, now says he sees values reaching a meteoric $400,000 in 2018 saying the “mind-blogging supply and demand imbalance is what is going to drive the higher price.” He was right before; will he be right again? Either way, plenty are jumping on the bandwagon.

Brexit: the Brits want out

A review of market-moving events in 2017 has to include the Brexit tidal wave, which continues to punish GBP markets. Brexit is the snappy moniker bestowed by the British press on the British exit from the European Union decided by referendum in June 2016. 2017 has been a battle waged between varying factions in the UK government, who are justifiably concerned that washing their laundry in public puts them at a disadvantage in negotiations over the terms of the exit.

Europe, 20 June 2016
Brexit.
Markus Grolik/Cartoon Movement/Hollandse Hoogte

Who is responsible for Brexit?

In 2016, rampant propaganda, fervent canvassing and decidedly dodgy claims resulted in the United Kingdom agreeing to crash out of the thriving economic and political union that has blossomed since the 1970s. Why would one of the world’s biggest economies decide to commit economic suicide? Good question and it’s one many continue to scratch their heads over. The pound plummeted immediately sending imported product prices rocketing and the beleaguered currency has failed to yet make a full recovery over 18 months later.

What’s next for GBP?

The future for the British currency is unclear. A large part of its economy is funded by revenue from the City of London. However, many international banks are setting up subsidiaries in Frankfurt and other key European cities, all keen to become the new home of passporting. This key facility was located in the UK capital and allowed banks to work across Europe without needing authorisation in each individual country. It is highly unlikely passporting will continue to run from London when it leaves the Union and the banks are likely to cut many jobs and reduce their contribution to the economy in the UK from then on.

Will Brexit be calmer in 2018?

Political news around the exit negotiations are likely to impact both sterling and the Euro. Inside the Union, leaders will be keen to ensure Great Britain isn’t seen to get a good deal in order to deter other nations from making similar exit plans. It will be essential that countries who are in look better off than those who opt out. It’s looking cold outside the E.U and Britain will need to negotiate individual trade agreements with everyone. The deadline is 2019 so 2018 will be a rollercoaster ride through negotiations.

Trump

That word has so many meanings. It can be the winning card in a game. It can mean doing better than your rival. It can mean something altogether more foul-smelling connected to digestion. But this year Trump gained a new meaning as Donald became the 45th POTUS in an election that put the Brexit Leavers campaign to shame.

Sheneman Dec 2017

How did Donald Trump win?

Donald won by wooing the electorate that mattered in a battle against Washington insider, Hillary Clinton. While the rest of the world saw a privileged white man; a man with inherited money that he frittered away on poor business deals who was paying his way to the top spot on the Republican ticket, voters in key States believed the nationalist ‘America First’ propaganda and insular rhetoric pouring from his Twitter feed. Despite winning fewer votes than his rival, Donald won the White House. Look up the electoral college system if you’re keen to see how it’s rigged set up.

What did the markets think of Trump?

Trump revealed a change in attitude from the markets towards geopolitical risk. The shockwaves from the election were relatively minor. Although the rising value of safe haven gold suggests they’re not entirely keen.

Markets and politics

Since Trump was elected, the markets have learned to weather the Twitter spats between Kim and Trump, watched the military posturing across the east Asian region with a bucket of popcorn, ignored the implications of Russian interference in key Western democracies, and will see the year out analysing Trump’s ham-fisted diplomacy in Jerusalem and the U.N. with great interest. Interestingly, at no point have any of the indices tanked suggesting there may be a growing separation between geopolitics and market valuation. Or things haven’t got crazy enough to worry them yet.

2017 was characterised by massive geopolitical upheaval that didn’t always translate into market movement. But the biggest upset for the year was Bitcoin. Will other cryptocurrencies now gain value? Will the bubble burst or is BTC finding its true level? Let’s see in 2018.

 

Top Tiql Tips 30th Oct to 3rd Nov

Too exciting

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week just for you. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. And this week there’s plenty of action!

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Non-Farm on 3rd
A new month means Non-Farm Employment Change (12.30pm GMT Friday 3rd November). Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States, and this month’s release looks extra interesting.

We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative against a substantial predicted increase (82k). Yet analysts are forecasting an even more meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed. They reckon a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

USD: FOMC rate decision
November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise (6pm GMT Wednesday 1st). Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high. The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong, but of course, not everyone agrees.

The other news due from the Fed will be huge. The clock is ticking and everybody wants to know who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

GBP: rates and speeches
Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button (12pm GMT Thursday 2nd) and opinion is divided about whether he should. The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting.

There is a large amount of key BoE trading data on Thursday – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced.

Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. But no matter what he says, the Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding (12.30pm GMT Thursday 2nd) should lead to some volatile action on the markets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Oct 31
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    19:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
  • Wed Nov 01
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    20:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • Thu Nov 02
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
    12:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Fri Nov 03
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: We’ve begun the trading week by trading back above the 6000 and making new highs; completing the ABCD pattern we have been watching. Where next for Bitcoin? All eyes will be on $6000 to see if we hold going into the week. If BTCUSD is looking a bit rich for you, we have just added Ethereum and Litecoin for you to trade!

USDJPY: Traders are excited about this pair as we once again retest resistance at 114.50. This level is the line in the sand for traders and the risk events this week from Japan and the USA should move this cross one way or the other.

EURUSD: Towards the end of last week this pair traded outside of the chop zone formed over the last few months. The weekly chart shows some of the key levels that traders may be watching. A daily close below the 1.16 may entice the sellers to push this lower to the next support level of 1.13 and a retest of the descending trend line. A move back up and we might see more rotation on this pair.

Copper: This metal has failed at a retest of the highs and previous chart structure. Might we see a deeper correction if we can’t take out the highs? Next support zone near 2.8950.

Gold: We traded close to the October lows on Friday and we are currently trading above the key 1260 level and the 61.8 Fibonacci. Will the buyers hold the channel? 1260 is key for the long and short thesis on this market.

Crude Oil: Friday saw this market pop to the $54 zone. We are at an interesting level here with the completion of the ABCD pattern, the 50% extension and previous supply at around $55. The old highs look vulnerable for now and we could imagine the longs covering their positions on any weakness at these highs. The $52/$53 zone might attract some more buyers if they are going to make another run at the highs.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD non-farm drama

We may need a lie down

Get ready as a new month starts this week and we all know what that means –  Non-Farm Employment Change is out on Friday 3rd November. Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States and this week it’s hot on the heels of a US Fed Rate decision.

FX EURUSD
EURUSD holds the 1.16 demand zone for now

This month’s release looks extra interesting. We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative. Yet analysts are forecasting a meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed in October predicting a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

Gold market
Buyers hold the support zone in Gold

Hump Day fun with USD

Watching the Fed

November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise at 6pm GMT on Wednesday 1st. Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high.

The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong. The other big news to come out of the Fed will be who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

Your helpful weekly guide to the markets: 16th to 20th Oct

Just your average helpful friend

Helpful! That’s us. So to help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and some key dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. You will receive $1 the very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

CPI: 3 dates this week
New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (Monday 16th at 9.45pm) could rise from its flat 0.0% to 0.4% or possibly even 1.8% depending on who you ask. Either result should give the NZDUSD pair a boost.

Great Britain‘s yearly CPI change (Tuesday 17th at 8.30am GMT) isn’t setting traders pulses racing with predictions along the lines of ‘nothing happening.’ The sluggish economy may see a nudge up from 2.9% to 3.0%, but with targets set at 2%, no-one is going to like that much.

Canada’s monthly CPI (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) concerned analysts when it shrank from 0.2% to 0.1% last month. Combined with worries over the strength of NAFTA the currency isn’t looking as strong as it was. Could it drop to 0.0% this week?

AUD: rate rise news
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (17th at 12.30am) should explain the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate decision. The rate maintained its record low position of 1.5% at the start of October and some feels this is holding the currency down. Opinions about how wise the current policy is are rather varied though ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’ was one recent judgement.

Employment: 4 key figures
GBP could see movement from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT.) British workers’ wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation casting doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. We will be watching closely when Bank of England’s Mark Carney talks to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and attitude towards the employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

The United States‘ weekly Unemployment Claims (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) has predictions for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

Australia also reveals its monthly Unemployment Rate this week (Thursday 19th at 12.30am GMT). At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Slow and steady wins the race or stalls the economy?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Monday 16th October
21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q

Tuesday 17th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
08:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
10:15:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Wednesday 18th October
08:10:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 19th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims

​Friday 20th October
12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
23:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its steam roll upwards making new highs in the last week. If BTC continues its momentum, could we see $6000 this week? Downside support levels where the bulls might take action are shown in the chart below. Retracements tend to be fast and deep on this market so take care and always use a stop loss.

GBPUSD: Broke through the key price level 1.3250 and is now trading just below last week’s high. This pair has been moving in a channel making higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the year and had broken through the 50% retracement at 1.35. Some daily closes above the 1.3250 and we might see the bulls push on to retest the yearly highs and top of the channel. If the bears can push this market down, we might see a retracement to old support and the 200 simple moving average.

Gold: It looks like the bulls have this market for now. The symmetrical pattern we were watching played out and we have had a daily close above the key resistance level at 1295. Watching to see if the bulls can push this to retest the recent highs.

USDJPY: Make or break level for the USDJPY here. Could be a good price for the buyers to load and continue this year’s upward move on gold.

Crude: Still watching the ABCD pattern play out for a retest into the $54.5 level and the 50% extension of the upward move which began in mid June. $53 is the level to watch this week for any defence by the shorts.

USDCAD: this pair is trading above key support at 1.24. We have resistance at 1.2750 and the next demand level at 1.2050.

 

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets are often volatile during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

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Tiql Tips: 9th to 13th Oct

High five!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Bank Holiday Monday: who gets one?
Columbus Day anyone? Well, yes, if you’re in the US it is and that means no trading. Other lucky people enjoying days off include the Canadians with Thanksgiving and Japan with Sports Day.

FOMC: December rate rise?
The FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday 11th 6pm GMT) should shed light on the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but surprisingly low inflation has put a spanner in the works. Higher employment and a healthy economy usually means inflation but it’s not hitting targets so the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious. But there are many voices who would like to see a complete change of policy fearing that any rate rises at all could stifle growth.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. This month, CPI (Friday 13th 12.30pm GMT) is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures (Thursday 12th 12.30pm GMT) to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

GBP: a troubled currency
The British currency has taken a pounding since Brexit and it looks like things are sliding further.

Political uncertainty looms as Prime Minister May’s future is in question. She suffered an excrutiating party conference plus Brexit negotiations are painfully slow with both sides starting to become entrenched in opposition making the likelihood of an agreement being reached before the 2019 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Bad relations and no trade deal with their closest and largest trading partner could be around the corner for the UK. This would mean rising trade costs in the midterm future. The rats are deserting the ship as a growing number of international banks are renting increasing amounts of office space in Frankfurt. It looks like the City of London party is coming to an end.To finish things off, ratings agency, Standards & Poor, are questioning the country’s ability to withstand an interest rate increase.

Mark Carney, the Canadian Bank of England Chair, would be wise to check his passport is up-to-date if Manufacturing Production monthly change (Tuesday 10th 8.30am GMT) comes in under par. Last month showed a healthy 0.5% increase against the 0.3% predicted and everyone will be hoping that is the start of a positive trend. The Goods Trade Balance (Tuesday 8.30am GMT) and BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday 12th 8.30am GMT) should both make for interesting reading. Supporters of a rate rise will be looking for another drop in the Goods Trade Balance, currently -11.6B, while the markets see rising debt levels as signs of confidence in consumer and business spending. It’s unclear why they don’t see it as a sign of desperate attempts to stay afloat but that’s an economics lesson for another day.

Oil: a storm brewing
Has the tide turned for oil? After hitting well above $50 a barrel at the end of September, prices dropped down near to $49 as some analysts said they were concerned the price has risen too far, too fast.

Adding to depreciatory fears, Tropical Storm Nate led to shutdowns in the US Gulf oil production region as they head into the traditional maintenance period. On top of that, some of the main US shale producers are set for record outputs this month and, worryingly, US crude stockpiles are currently more than 70 million barrels over their 5-year average adding further downward pressure on prices. Traders will pay close attention when the latest weekly Crude Oil Inventories data is revealed (Thursday 12th 3pm GMT). Any increase could be taken rather badly.

But that’s not all. Adding more fuel to the fire, Libya’s just opened up oil fields that have been shut for a long time while OPEC’s main producers like Saudi Arabia have all upped their output despite renewing their agreement to keep a lid on production.

It looks like it could be a race to the bottom for oil this week and many investors will be thinking about cashing in before prices sink too far. The question is who would buy in this climate?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 10th October
    08:30:00 GMT 2017 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
  • Wednesday 11th October
    18:00:00 GMT 2017 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday 12th October
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD PPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
    14:30:00 GMT 2017 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    15:00:00 GMT 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • ​Friday 13th October
    ​12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

S&P 500 and Dow: The US indices continue to grind higher on low volatility. The charts below show the support lines the buyers may be watching to maintain their bullish consensus. For now, all these charts are pointing up with any retracements being bought.


GBPUSD: We saw some selling-off last week with a daily close below 1.32500. 1.29 looks vulnerable if we can hold below the 1.32 round number.

Crude: $50 is the line in the sand for this market. We have found some support at $49.35 which is at the half way back of the recent move up. Below $50, the bears have the ball on this market and a deeper move testing some of the most recent lows could be on the cards.

Gold: Gold has been rotating in an upwards channel and there may be some symmetrical patterns in play. A hold above $1264 at the 61.8 Fibonacci and we might see this market rotate higher to the top of the channel. Any daily closes below this price and outside of this channel may see some more sellers come in.

USDCAD: We are at an interesting price point here. Any breaks below support at 1.2400 and the bears might have this. Daily closes above 1.26 and the bulls might try for 1.2750.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

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Will the US raise interest rates in December?

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday 11th at 6pm will be the hottest news this week for USD traders eyeing up the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but life has a funny way of tripping up even the best laid plans. With inflation surprisingly low despite higher employment and a healthy economy, the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. Friday 13th’s CPI at 12.30pm GMT is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters. However, unless inflation starts to reach the planned 2% there are many voices who would like to see a change of policy altogether fearing that any rate rises could stifle growth. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures on Thursday 12th at 12.30pm GMT to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue with that.