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To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
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Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
EUR: hotting up on the continent
When did the Eurozone start looking so good? Bearish attitudes to the US dollar this week make the euro an even better prospect. Some analysts are surprised as surging stock markets and booming economies are a world away from where many though Europe would be right now. A quick glance at the European indices on Monday morning showed green from top to bottom. But what will the rest of the week bring? Two main events stand out.
The World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th) is a hub of business bigwigs and political heavyweights from across the globe. Meetings shaping economic policy and international business agendas go alongside whispered conversations that could be worth billions in the coffee bars and corridors. Listen out for any news concerning eurozone countries, currencies and businesses.
This event is likely to affect EURUSD and Dax.
Also big news this week, the European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 25th January at 7.45am GMT) currently stands at 0.00%. No change is forecast, which sounds like nothing. However, if the zone’s economy is doing well and inflation is looming, there is an argument for rates to rise. Pay very close attention to the ECB Press Conference (Thursday 25th at 8.30am GMT) for clues to the future direction of the central bank’s interest rate policy. Traders will react if there are suggestions of a rise on the way and the EUR could go on a ride.
Likely to affect all EUR pairs.
USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week
There are lots of trading events affecting the dollar and US stock markets this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP. It seems not even political catastrophes like a shut down government are going to put traders off their business. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, USD traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.
One global event any USD players might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!
Although Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question due to domestic trouble, his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets.
Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).
Crude Oil Inventories has been in major decline since mid-November 2017 with an astonishing -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were slightly off-key with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to believe them this week either (Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT). If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.
Finally, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP (Friday 26th at 8.30am GMT). Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.
JPY: what’s the outlook for the Bank of Japan?
Things are rather depressed. The current long-term monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan has seen inflation creeping upwards but it’s not getting anywhere near the 2% target. Recent growth in the economy and rather too rosy expectations of medium to long-term rise in economic output makes Bank insiders think no change in policy is the way to go.
December’s solitary voice of dissent, newcomer Goushi Kataoka, argued that additional quantitive easing should be implemented to bolster the economy as the likelihood of inflation speeding up was so remote. The target for 10-year-bonds is 0% yield while interest rates stand at -0.1%. It’s not a pretty picture.
With the next update in March, few see a change in policy this month. Some analysts are even predicting current policy will stick until at least 2019. But Kataoka has cracked open the door to allow different opinions so the 8-1 ratio may change. If that happens, you can be sure markets will react.
After the Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and Rate are announced (lunchtime Monday 22nd), the Press Conference (1.30am GMT Tuesday 23rd) should provide the most action on the markets for this event.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Tue Jan 23
03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
03:55:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
- Wed Jan 24
09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q
- Thu Jan 25
12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
- Fri Jan 26
09:30:00 GMT GBP Prelim GDP q/q
13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Advance GDP q/q
13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
14:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
14:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
Some Markets to Watch…
AUDUSD: The Aussie has come up against some supply. While there may be more upside to go on this pair, it makes sense that there may be some correction on this pair. The half way back near the 200 SMA and previous supply might be of interest to the buyers. Right now, 0.80 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.
Gold: Gold has had a good run and is trading near some potential supply. Traders will be watching the 1345 zone to see how price behaves this week. If we get a move down, 1300 would make a good target for the bears and a likely place for the buyers to leg into any potential moves up.
GBPUSD: We are trading near a key level on cable. 1.40 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.
Crude Oil: The bulls have had a good run and we could imagine some covering going on at this level perhaps. The chart below outlines the key levels on crude as we approach the end of January.
USDJPY: Still range bound for now. The key levels to watch are 110.00 and 111.75 to see where traders can push this to. Bank of Japan news out early Tuesday and the speech on Friday might give this pair enough volatility to test these levels.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.
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