GBP: Bank Rate Thursday

HMS GBP in the markets this week

Mark Carney, Chair of the Bank of England, has his moment in the sun on Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT as the Official Bank Rate is revealed. Pundits have priced a rise in for May, but there are mutterings of an early rise that could shake a few foundations. Nothing is off the cards this week.

The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT)  has held steady at 0-0-9 since the rise in November, but many expect to see that change as some voices express concerns about the health of the economy. The question is how many want a rise and how many think that would be a disaster. The Policy Summary, also Thursday at 12pm GMT, should give traders a good view of the Bank’s view of the economy.

Before they cast their votes, the CPI and PPI monthly data should give the Monetary Policy Committee more to think about on Tuesday 20th 9.30am GMT. CPI has been rising above inflation targets at 3% or more since September 2017, while PPI is volatile making forecasts difficult. The Average Earnings Index is another one to chuck in the mix on Wednesday 21st at 9.30am GMT. Finally climbing to more than 2% last August, the current 2.5% could jump again depending on who you talk to.

With more multinationals shifting operations to the continents and the ‘subsidiary’ offices in Frankfurt, Rotterdam and elsewhere taking shape, London’s status looks set to take a battering. Will a rate rise depress the currency like the iceberg for Titanic, or could the domestic boost be the life raft the sinking ship has been floundering for?

 

USD: CPI, PPI & Retail Sales get real

American first

Trump can talk the talk for his cohort of loyal fans, but facts and figures can be made to suit anyone; I mean, they speak for themselves. All eyes are on the health of the US economy as key data for producers, consumers and shopping comes in.

The US’s Consumer Price Index, based on figures for February, are set to fall if analysts are correct. Predictions are that last month’s surprise 0.5% growth will drop back to 0.2% on Tuesday 13th at 12.30pm GMT. Core CPI, out at the same time, looks a little steadier but pundits still feel a drop is on the cards – 0.3% to 0.2%.

Trumps’ America First rhetoric got real as he slammed import duties on steel last week threatening to cause a trade war with Europe and other international trade partners. That won’t affect the Producer’s Price Index (Wednesday 14th March 12.30pm GMT), which is based on last month’s data. Forecasts indicate a fall in price growth from 0.4% to 0.1%. Next month should be very interesting here.

Retail Sales, Wednesday 14th March at 12.30pm GMT, looks like it will be the biggest USD news this week. The shock drop from 0.0% to -0.3% shook markets, who will be keen to know if this month’s turnaround prediction to 0.3% is true.

Top Tiql Tips (with love): 12th to 16th February

​​​​​Your free guide to the markets this Valentine’s Week!

That’s our kind of girl

To help you to earn more with TIQL, because we think you’re great, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

USD: key events this week
This week there are loads of of major events for USD traders to play this week.

Firstly, CPI and Core CPI as well as Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (14th February 1.30pm GMT). If they are strong, most pundits expect markets to rise. Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 14th 3.30pm GMT) is less directly related to the consumer market, but it also impacts USD. The Producer Price Index (Thursday 15th 1.30pm GMT) shrank by -0.1% last month. This will reflect data gathered before the crashes and temporary government shutdown at the end of last week so traders may not place too much weight on it. Then Building Permits (Friday 16th 1.30pm GMT) will be USD traders last planned big play before the week ends.

But, remember, we always have Trump’s tweets and speeches to add some turbulence to the week, and some much needed laughs. Last week’s midweek shock crashes led to an old irate tweet about the markets coming back to bite Trump. Back in 2015, he thought the sitting US president should be fired into the sun in a cannon if Wall Street dropped by more than 1,000 points in a day. Then it happened twice in one week on his watch. He went uncharacteristically quiet with no tweets for what must be a record amount of time on the Trump-feed. We’re guessing that means he won’t be heading into the sun any time soon. But with two massive crashes in a row, shouldn’t that be two canon rides then? Or would twice mean a ride there and one back? Is that why he’s still president? Has Trump been to the sun?

The big question traders want to know this week is when the Dow and S&P 500 will turn around or if there is further to fall. They also want to know why the fall happened when the US economy looks reasonably strong at the moment. Everyone and their dog has a theory but we may never know. Jittery traders who don’t trust a good thing seems to cover it. Even Trump got it right about that.

AUD: brace for impact
The Australian dollar has a tendency to be buffeted by other markets. The Wall Street double dipper led to a 6-week low against the dollar and volatility could well remain across this week.

AUD traders also face additional impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate news (over 1% drop against sterling), but AUD could regain some strength with Employment Change news and the Unemployment Rate (Thursday 15th February 12.30am GMT).

The highlight of the week will be Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Rob Lowe speaking to the House of Representatives Economics Committee (Thursday 15th 10.30pm GMT). Their questions could shed light on the Bank’s latest view of the economy and future plans for interest rates.

GBP: an economy under pressure
Last week’s reveal of a potential interest rate rise from Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, and the news that it could be larger than previously thought will probably worry large parts of the country’s debt-laden population, though markets reacted positively.

Analysts wanted someone, anyone, to do something to keep a lid on inflation so they took the rate rise news well. Although others are confused. The upwards pressure doesn’t seem to be coming from the domestic market making it difficult to see how Carney’s measures are going to do anything other than fan the flames for a debt-laden cash-strapped underpaid workforce.

The Consumer Price Index (Tuesday 13th February 9.30am GMT) fell to 3.0% last month from a high of 3.1% in December. If it drops further, the arguments for a rate rise get thinner. Retail Sales (9.30am GMT Friday 16th) will help a lot of traders decide how far and fast they think the Governor is going to jump. The next chance for rates to change will be on 22nd March though many have put their money on May’s Rate Statement for the next hike.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Feb 13
    09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
  • Wed Feb 14
    02:00:00 GMT NZD Inflation Expectations q/q
    13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Feb 15
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    21:30:00 GMT NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
    22:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Fri Feb 16
    13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen is trading at a key support zone at 107 – 108 after making a low of 108.03 on Friday. The US government fiscal balance is due to be reported later on Monday with no other important data due. The near term levels to watch are 108 and 109.

GBPUSD: Cable seems poised to continue its bull run. The UK has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase. The chart below shows the levels to watch as we go into the trading week.

BTCUSD: Bitcoin levels rose this past week. Bitcoin recovered more than 48% from the multi-month lows touched at $5,896.00 last week. The long-awaited break above $8,500 failed to produce meaningful recovery as the selling interest around $9,000 resistance pushed it back.

Crude Oil: Oil prices have gained some ground today after the drop last week. The chart below shows some of the levels to watch going into the trading week. The key zone to watch is near $55, which is near the half way back and has previous supply and demand nearby. We also have the equidistant swing completing into $53: should we see a deeper correction this might be an interesting level to watch.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
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USD: key events this week

This week, there are lots of red flag events for USD traders to cogitate on and plan their moves for the week. First up are CPI and Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on Valentine’s Day at 1.30pm GMT. If they show love for the US economy, most analysts expect markets to rise. Also on Wednesday 14th at 3.30pm GMT is Crude Oil Inventories. Less directly related to the domestic market, this impacts USD in a number of ways. On Thursday 15th at 1.30pm GMT the Producer Price Index, which contracted by -0.1% last month, will reflect data gathered before the crashes and temporary government shutdown at the end of last week. Then Building Permits, Friday 16th at 1.30pm GMT, will be USD traders last planned big play before the week ends.

But, of course, there’s always Trump’s tweets and speeches to add some unnecessary turbulence to the week, and much needed laughs.


Last week’s midweek shock crash sent Wall Street tumbling more than 1000 points twice in one week and an old irate tweet about the markets came back to bite Trump hard.

He went uncharacteristically quiet with no tweets for what must be a record amount of time on the Trump-feed. We’re guessing that means he won’t be heading into the sun any time soon. But with two massive crashes in a row, shouldn’t that be two canon rides then? Or would twice mean a ride there and one back? Is that why he’s still president? Has Trump been to the sun?

More importantly, this week traders want to know when the Dow and S&P 500 will turn around or if there is further to fall. They also want to know why the fall happened when the US economy looks reasonably strong at the moment. Everyone and their dog has a theory but we may never know. Jittery traders who don’t trust a good thing seems to cover it. Even Trump got it right about that.

 

Top Tiql Tips: your weekly market guide (8th to 12th Jan)

Here’s to a new year of trading in 2018

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and highlighting some dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: PPI & CPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) (Thursday 11th January 1.30pm GMT) has been stable at 0.4% for three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Friday 12th January 1.30pm GMT) has been rather more volatile with no clear trend for many years.

Both data impact how the markets view USD because of their connection to the domestic economy, which is the key factor in USD value. PPI impacts inflation and it’s interesting to note recent news, according to the FT, that market investors are currently choosing funds that protect against inflation. The target rate of 2% inflation is close to how things stand so the forecast seems reasonably steady for Federal Reserve Bank’s new Chair, Powell, when he starts next month.

We are sure Powell will be keeping a close eye on the less-predictable CPI due the Reserve Bank’s mandate to contain inflation. A low figure this week will probably be seen by most as a good result.

Oil: politics affects prices
This week Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 10th January 3.30pm GMT) is likely to see another drop but what that does to USD remains to be seen.

In 2017 OPEC worked hard to manipulate the price of oil by agreeing to reduce production levels. Other like-minded oil producers, such as Russia, joined them. Stock levels were high for a long time and prices didn’t recover as well as they’d have liked leading to a change in how things work in Saudi Arabia. This hit the news last week as 11 Saudi princes were arrested for demonstrating against their newly imposed utility bills. Life is so hard as a modern Middle East prince. So hard.

There are mixed views on whether oil production overall will rise this year and that is a determining factor in price. To ensure its arms sales to the Middle East go smoothly, Russia is unlikely to renege on its deal with OPEC. Other oil-producing countries face war, poor infrastructure and natural declines in production leading some to declare supplies will fall and prices will increase.

On the other hand, the US has not been working with OPEC to reduce output and shale production is on the rise boosting US oil inventories. Trump’s America First policy means it is likely to push forward with production and that could keep prices low. This would be good news for US domestic gas guzzlers as well as manufacturers in the heartland of Trump’s power base. In an election year, he is sure to have this in mind.

GBP: Manufacturing Production monthly
Post-Brexit Britain has been on a bumpy economic ride. Confusion over what Brexit actually means and posturing in the EU negotiations has resulted in nervous markets. While UK unemployment is at its lowest for 40 years, productivity appears so subdued that the Bank of England raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.

It would be fair to say that the UK has been the slowest to recover from the crash of 2008 of all the advanced economies. This week Manufacturing Production monthly (Wednesday 10th January 9.30am GMT) will shed light on progress. If the Brits start making more and selling more both domestically and internationally, some of those jitters might calm down. And for the last 3 months manufacturing production has been rising nicely. Maybe the EU market isn’t such a big deal?

Only joking – news that broke on 7th January 2018 suggested UK importers may face massive increases in upfront cost increases. And it’s a shame then that analysts saw December’s Manufacturing Production monthly figure of 0.7% as something of a peak. They reckon it is going to fall back to as low as 0.1%. Let’s be positive – at least it is in the black. But if they’re right or if it’s even worse than that, markets really won’t like it. Manufacturing Production makes up about 80% of total industrial production and it’s quick to react to consumer conditions. All in all, GBP is starting 2018 on the back foot.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Mon Jan 08
    • 15:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
  • Wed Jan 10
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Jan 11
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
  • Fri Jan 12
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin almost reached the $20,000 level before falling off dramatically before the end of the year. Right now we are ping-ponging in a range between $13,000 and $17,000. Any breaks below the $13,000 support and $12,000 and $11,000 has attracted buyers before.

USDJPY: This pair has been moving in a range now for some time. We have resistance at 113.75 and significant previous demand at 1114.50. 112 is supporting with the 200 simple moving average close by.

Crude Oil: Looking at the weekly and we can can there may be some supply near $63. We might see some tactical shorting here but this looks bullish above $60.

EURUSD: we have come off of the highs with sellers coming in at the August highs. A retracement to the halfway back and previous demand may see this pair pull back to 118 before retesting the highs.

GBPUSD: Cable is still technically in a channel making higher highs and higher lows. There could be some unfinished business at 1.38 on this pair, which was the support level dramatically broken on the Brexit vote. If you’d been long on this pair for a while, it might be a level to cover. The bears might be eyeing this level as well as a point of interest for a short play.​

Gold: Gold bugs will be bullish on this market above 1300. We have moved back into the channel again and the recent highs of 1357 could be retested. Below 1300, this starts to look bearish and we may start to see a deeper correction.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: PPI and CPI monthly

Steady or not, here I come

The East Coast has been in a deep freeze that even a good week on the markets won’t thaw. The Producer Price Index (PPI), due out on Thursday 11th January at 1.30pm GMT, has been steady at 0.4% since October’s data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due out on Friday 12th January at 1.30pm GMT, has been rather more volatile with no clear trend for many years.

Both data impact how the markets view USD because of their connection to the domestic economy, the biggest driver of USD value. PPI impacts inflation and it’s interesting to note recent news, according to the FT, that market investors are currently choosing funds that protect against inflation. The target rate of 2% is close to the truth as things stand so things seem steady for Federal Reserve Bank’s new Chair, Powell, when he starts next month.

Powell will be keeping a close eye on the less-predictable CPI due the Reserve Bank’s mandate to contain inflation. A low figure this week will probably be seen by most as a good result.