2 major Central Bank speeches (USD, GBP)

Banging parrot

The week ends with a bang as Bank of England Mark Carney addresses an international climate risk conference in Amsterdam (4.15pm GMT Friday 6th). The clamour for a rate rise in the UK is growing but the mixed forecast has Bank representatives sitting on the fence. GBP traders could change their positions as the week closes if Carney drops any hints in the speech.

Federal Reserve newcomer Jermone Powell gives a speech and answers questions at the Economic Club of Chicago (Friday 6th 6.30pm GMT). If his comments look hawkish that is usually seen as good for the currency. It’s a busy week for USD traders so this could see them planning their action for Monday rather than any big changes as the week closes for trading on Friday.

Interest rates have such a crucial effect on currency value expect fluctuations around both events and enjoy your Friday afternoon trades.

USD: rate rise time?

America boom

This is it. Never mind the threat of global war with Russia kicking off in Europe, markets sense a rate rise of 0.25% from the FOMC (Wednesday 21st 6pm GMT) and everyone has an opinion about it.

Expect massive volatility as things go wild during the Press Conference (Wednesday 21st 6.30pm GMT) as Jerome Powell faces the press. No matter what he does, raise rates or leave them be, the stock, currency and commodities markets want to know why.

Trump is slapping trade tariffs on countries like parking tickets, threatening trade wars with every continent that could knock the domestic economy for six. China is the latest in the firing line and we can’t see that ending well.

It’s got to be said that GDP is coming in close to Trump’s 3% target and his Twitter feed shows his usual modesty around that. Of course, stock market gains and recent improvements in small business confidence are largely powered by his much-touted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashing business rates from 35% to 21%, rather than actual growth, but some argue his policies are actually leading to massive debt. The sums don’t add up, depending on who you’re asking.

So, long story short, Powell is in a very hot seat and needs to steer the Reserve Bank’s fiscal policy to help calm the economic waters. Plan your in and out points and enjoy the USD ride this week.

Top Tiql Tips: 27th Feb to 4th March

Tiql tips being delivered

Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: Time to talk Brexit

Cable’s set for some disruption (Friday 2nd March 9am GMT) if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead. Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will set out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. The local press indicate a distinct lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.

Sterling and Bitcoin traders will also pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference (Friday 2nd March 10am). Should be interesting.

Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st March 9.30am) looks reasonably healthy at 55.3 although this is under forecasts and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am) on the other hand reflects an industry under the cosh. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the borderline between positive and negative outlooks. Some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, though headlines indicate falling London prices and empty properties suggesting this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?

USD: markets holding their breath till Powell testifies

New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat for his first major speech to the US government this week when he delivers his first testimony to Congress (Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT). Markets across the world are treading water as they wait to hear what the pearls of wisdom he will share.

Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.

Powell speaks again (Thursday 1st March 3pm GMT) when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. It might be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something. It’s a definite opportunity but no-one knows which way things will go.

Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday.

Other important events likely to affect the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 27th 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 27th 3pm GMT), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 28th 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).

AUD & NZD: volatile times down under

Watch out for volatility as antipodean currencies react to Powell’s first major speeches in post as the US Federal Reserve Bank Chair. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have ‘interesting’ relationships with other currencies, especially sterling, USD and the Chinese yuan.

Also this week, the Kiwi dollar faces the likelihood of another pessimistic ANZ Business Confidence score (Wednesday 28th February 12am GMT). Hitting 0.0 back in September after a lengthy period of positivity, traders haven’t had an update since December as there is no data released in January. They will be keen to learn if the main industrial drivers of agriculture, manufacturing, retail, construction and services see a dim or bright future in 2018.

Business also takes centre stage in the Aussie economy as Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1st March 12.30am GMT) delivers a snapshot of economic health. Looking at the change in total inflation adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses, this data is a leading indicator of the health of the economy as increased business spending is seen to drive employment and growth. If it drops, jobs are likely to go and vice versa. Standing at 1.0% it’s predicted to rise to 1.1% supporting the view of business leaders that 2018 will be a boom year. Let’s see if they’re right.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Feb 27
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • Wed Feb 28
    • 00:00:00 GMT NZD ANZ Business Confidence
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Prelim GDP q/q
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Mar 01
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Fri Mar 02
    • 09:00:00 GMT GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    • 10:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    • 13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
  • Sun Mar 04
    • 09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: BTCUSD broke back above 10,000 before hitting supply near the $12,000. It’s currently trading near $10,700. The key levels to watch are at $9000 and $12000 as we go into the week.

Crude Oil: Oil has confounded the bears, at least temporarily, by climbing the page. The chart below shows the bull bear lines which are of interest.


S&P Futures: The S&P broke out from a multi-day consolidation and is presently trading above 2750. The chart below shows the supply and demand zones which may be of interest to traders.


USDJPY: All eyes on the 107 to 108 zone. We are trading near some significant chart structure. More pressure on the dollar and we might expect some further downside on this FX pair.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: markets holding their breath till Fed Chair Powell testifies

The independent voice of the Fed as chosen by Trump

New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat and gearing up for his first major speech to the US government this week. He is due to deliver his first testimony to Congress on Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT. Markets across the world are subdued as they wait to hear what the new economic head of the free world has to say.

Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.

Powell speaks again on Thursday 1st March at 3pm GMT when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. If you are a fast reader, it could be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something.

Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday. So far, markets seem reassured that he plans to follow the line set by his predecessor, Yellen.

Other key events affecting the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 3pm), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).

AUD & NZD: volatile times down under

Sweet ride! Nope.

Watch out for volatility in the markets this week as the antipodean currencies react to Powell’s first major speeches in post as the US Federal Reserve Bank Chair. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have interesting relationships with other currencies, especially sterling, USD and the Chinese yuan.

The Kiwi also faces the likelihood of another pessimistic ANZ Business Confidence score on Wednesday 28th February at 12am. Hitting 0.0 back in September after a lengthy positive period, traders haven’t seen a score since December so they will be keen to learn if the main industrial drivers of agriculture, manufacturing, retail, construction and services see a dim or bright future in 2018.

Business takes centre stage in the Aussie economy this week as Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1st March 12.30am GMT) paints a picture of economic health or not. Looking at the change in total inflation adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses, this data is a leading indicator of the health of the economy as increased business spending is seen to drive employment and growth. If it drops, jobs are likely to go and vice versa. Standing at 1.0% it’s predicted to rise to 1.1% supporting the view of business leaders that 2018 will be a boom year. Let’s see if they’re right.

Top Tiql Tips: 19th to 25th February

Tiql tips time!

We’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch to help you to earn more with TIQL this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: kicks off early and peaks midweek

Traders are keen to know what will happen with the Bank of England’s interest rates. Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman, offers an exciting chance to kick the week off with some volatility on the pound when he talks about leadership and values in London (Monday 19th 6.45pm GMT).

Wages have been stagnating so Carney will be hoping for good news from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 21st 9.30am). Rising below inflation at 2.5% for the last few months, they haven’t helped paint a positive picture of the wider domestic economy.

The mid-week hump peaks with the big red flag, Inflation Report Hearings (2.15pm GMT Wednesday 21st February). Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee testify at the Treasury with comments expected about the currency markets. Lasting a few hours this can almost guarantee turbulence.

Sterling’s last big gasp of the week is the quarterly Second Estimate GDP (Thursday at 9.30am GMT). Rising more than expected to 0.5% analysts expect that to stabilise with no change forecast.

USD: Yellen’s last stand at the FOMC

Yellen is out. Powell is in. It’s regime change time. But is that boat getting rocked one last time by the ex-most powerful woman in the US economy?

Get the tissues ready to hear her final remarks in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for January (Wednesday 21st February 7.00pm GMT). We don’t expect her to hold back. Everyone and his donkey want to know where the Fed’s interest rate is going next and when. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes give all the juicy details and we want them hot off the press.

Incoming Chair, Jerome Powell, has stressed continuity. He caused a few chuckles with remarks that the Fed works for the “good of all Americans” recently. Some applaud his apparently strong free markets stance but the question remains whether organisations and markets will actually be allowed to fail should things go wrong. Check out Powell’s upcoming speeches to see where the future lies.

CAD & NZD: retail sales

New Zealand’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are forecast to uptick with 1.4% growth. Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are also expected to be stronger at 0.7% growth.

If pundits are correct, this makes the domestic economy look better than some would have hoped. Though every trader knows forecasts can be wrong. Last week’s US Core Retail Sales stagnated at 0.0% rather than the healthier 0.5% growth expected while there was a wince-inducing contraction of -0.2% in the wider Retail Sales. Now there’s an economy that’s suddenly not looking as bright as expected.

Canada’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd February 1.30pm GMT) boosted their economy last month by coming in at twice the forecast with 1.6% growth against the 0.8% predicted. They are cautiously optimistic about wider economic growth and this could be a strengthening economy.
Where Canada is concerned, always remember to track Crude Oil Inventories (Thursday 22nd February 4pm GMT) for its impact on the Loonie. Currently back in the positive after months of reductions, are we seeing a new trend in oil production?

EUR: no weekend off

The European Parliamentary Elections are on Sunday 25th. Expect EUR related markets to pay attention and watch out for possible corrections when markets open on Monday if there are any political upsets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

 

  • Mon Feb 19
    18:45:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Tue Feb 20
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Wed Feb 21
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    14:15:00 GMT GBP Inflation Report Hearings
    19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thu Feb 22
    16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Retail Sales q/q
  • Fri Feb 23
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
  • Sun Feb 25
    09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen broke through significant support and has been trading in a narrow range within last week’s range. The dollar hit a 3-year low against the Yen last week despite surging U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in global equity markets. The move may have been fueled by inflation concerns in the U.S. as well as worries about the huge U.S. current and budget deficits.

 

Bitcoin: BTCUSD is trading above the key $10000 round number. Key levels to watch this week are 12000 (completion of equidistant swing into previous supply/demand) and the 10,000 level.

 

Crude Oil: The chart we looked at last week is still in play. We have a potential ABCD pattern which could complete near the halfway back and previous chart structure at $54.

 


GBPUSD: The bulls still have the ball on cable. We found buyers at 1.38 last week and all eyes are on the 1.40 level to see if we can push higher. 1.45 could be a good target for the bulls to cover.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

 

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: Yellen’s last stand at the FOMC

Who will miss her?

Yellen is out. Powell is in. But is that boat getting rocked one last time by the ex-most powerful woman in the economy?

Get ready to hear her last statements with the FOMC Meeting Minutes for January (Wednesday 21st February 7.00pm GMT). We don’t think she will hold back. Everyone and his donkey want to know where the Fed’s interest rate is going next and when. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes give all the juicy details and we want them hot off the press.

Incoming Chair Jerome Powell has stressed continuity and caused a few chuckles with remarks that the Fed works for the “good of all Americans” recently. Some applaud his apparently strong free markets stance but the question is whether organisations and markets will actually be allowed to fail should things go wrong. Check out Powell’s upcoming speeches to see where the future lies.

Top Tiql Tips: 29th Jan to 2nd Feb

They got their free guide

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

USD: FOMC & Fed Funds Rate
The FOMC Statement (7pm GMT Wednesday 31st January) is Yellen’s last as her tenure as the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank comes to an end next month.

After raising rates by a quarter percentage point in December, Yellen outlined a three-quarters point rise for 2018. Back then, warm fuzzy feelings were growing for the outlook of both the US and the global economy. Yellen even said, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.” GDP rose by 2.6% in the fourth quarter and employment continued to rise albeit by less than predicted. Tax cuts pushed through Congress have also bolstered business confidence suggesting incoming Federal Chair Powell will be taking over as the economy hits its stride.

The two big questions for traders right now is when those three-quarters points will kick in and if they will know more after the Statement on Wednesday.

GBP: is it turnaround time?
Reuters reported on Monday 29th January that some of the world’s biggest funds are betting on sterling turning things around. With so much at stake, these mega funds believe Brexit has to go relatively smoothly and recent news about improvements in the economy makes them think interest rates are going up. GBP Tiql players could enjoy some short term fluctuations on the strength of the pound as Mark Carney, Bank England Chair, addresses the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee (Tuesday 30th 3.30pm GMT) at the British parliament.

Also this week are the Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 9.30am GMT) and Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am GMT). High inflation, low consumer spending and uncertainty around Brexit could put the brakes on a recovery so traders will be watching signs of weakening business confidence.

Last week, Carney put the price of Brexit at £10 billion per year. Traders will be looking for economic confidence from the PMIs; if purchase managers are willing to invest, then the future looks brighter. Manufacturing PMI has been over 50 since August 2016 but dipped nearly 2 points below expectations at the end of 2017 when it came in at 56.3 against 58 forecast. Construction PMI has been far less stable and closer to the 50 mark for many months. Weekend news about falling sales in London suggest international investors are moving out. Forecasts stand at 52.1 but that seems surprisingly positive all things considered.

USD: Non-Farm Unemployment Change
You’ll have to wait until Friday for the biggest USD news of the week as Non-Farm Employment Change is on the way (2nd February 1.30pm GMT).

Last month’s surprise revelation that non-farm related employment rose by almost 100k less than predicted looks set to hit reverse. Analysts predict employment will rise by a healthy 184K instead, though the America First policy seems to be hitting foreign investment in manufacturing, reducing job opportunities there. Check out the news on the LG washing machine factory in Tennessee for more information.

But that’s not all the US action this week. Riding high off the back of his speech wooing business leaders in Davos, Trump turns to his favourite audience – the home crowd – on Wednesday 31st at 2.30am GMT i.e. Tuesday evening in the States. Get in the popcorn and a few bottles of something tasty and kick back to enjoy as social media goes wild.

The State of the Union address is the President’s chance to spell out to Congress what he thinks they should do. Expect to hear about the Wall, about America First and tax cuts. The stock markets are doing well, the dollar is weak boosting trade and the general business mood is positive so traders will be keen to hear what Trump thinks America plc should do next.

Also watch Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 31st 3.30pm GMT), FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate (Wednesday 31st 7pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm).

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Jan 30
    15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    15:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Wed Jan 31
    00:30:00 GMT AUD CPI q/q
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
    02:00:00 GMT USD President Trump Speaks
    10:00:00 GMT EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
    13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
  • Thu Feb 01
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Fri Feb 02
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin continues to trade heavy. We have a demand zone at 10,000 and 9,000 with resistance at 12,000. We would need to see some daily closes above the 12,000 level before there is a strong bullish thesis for this market.


USDJPY: last week resistance held on this pair and it traded lower. We are currently testing the 108 level and we have key support at 107.50 below. With the current USD weakness, we may see further downside on this pair.

Crude Oil: $65 is still the key zone on this pair as we can see from the chart below. We are currently trading above the key $65 level and the resistance zone made from the highs from 2015. Again, the weak USD will be a contributing factor for any more drives up.

GBPUSD: We have traded back into pre-Brexit prices now and this pair is trading above the key 1.40 level. 1.38 and 1.37 are key levels to watch should we retrace to see if the bulls reload at these previous chart structure zones.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: What would MLK say?

MLK in action

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday. On Monday 15th America celebrates Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. Some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke.

Maybe later.

Currency traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits on Thursday 18th January at 1.30pm GMT. This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Also on Thursday 18th at 1.30pm GMT, Unemployment Claims will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reigns of the economy next month.

Top Tiql Tips: 12th to 15th Dec 2017

On the 12th day of Christmas

With only a few weeks until the end of the year, we’ve giving you this free guide to help you to earn more with TIQL. Covering the markets and dates to watch this week, economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: FOMC December Rate Hike
The vast majority of USD traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% (Wednesday 13th 7pm GMT) so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are also other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference (13th 7.30pm) should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Global: Libor Bank Rate
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set (Thursday 14th 8.30am GMT) and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

GBP: BoE base rate
This week we’re all about the rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. The Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%) only hours after Libor (Thursday 14th 12pm GMT), so expect volatility for the duration. The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

45 minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 14th 12.45pm GMT), which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 12
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    • 19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    • 22:15:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Wed Dec 13
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    • 19:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
  • Thu Dec 14
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    • 17:25:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: Although this pair is looking heavy, the Aussie is at a key technical level with previous demand, the half way back is nearby and an ascending trend line. The 0.75 price is a key level to watch. Keep an eye on any moves on the commodities such as gold, which will impact this FX pair.

BTCUSD: After an eye-watering retracement last week where we saw $13000 tested, it looks like bitcoin may try and test the all-time highs once again.

EURUSD: Pundits have been calling the end of Euro for some time but this pair remains in the range for now. We are watching the edges of the consolidation for the market to tip its hand.

Gold: Have we broken down or are we just running the stops at these lows? Daily closes under 1250 and we could see a deeper move down. Closes above 1260 and the bulls may try for some of the higher numbers.

USDJPY: We remain within the yearly range for now. The main levels to watch are 110.50 and 114.50 to see if these are defended as they have been before.

USDCAD: The lows held last week after that very bearish daily candle. It looks like the highs may be tested and we have the equidistant swing completing into the 200 SMA.

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