USD: What would MLK say?

MLK in action

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday. On Monday 15th America celebrates Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. Some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke.

Maybe later.

Currency traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits on Thursday 18th January at 1.30pm GMT. This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Also on Thursday 18th at 1.30pm GMT, Unemployment Claims will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reigns of the economy next month.

Top Tiql Tips: 12th to 15th Dec 2017

On the 12th day of Christmas

With only a few weeks until the end of the year, we’ve giving you this free guide to help you to earn more with TIQL. Covering the markets and dates to watch this week, economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: FOMC December Rate Hike
The vast majority of USD traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% (Wednesday 13th 7pm GMT) so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are also other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference (13th 7.30pm) should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Global: Libor Bank Rate
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set (Thursday 14th 8.30am GMT) and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

GBP: BoE base rate
This week we’re all about the rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. The Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%) only hours after Libor (Thursday 14th 12pm GMT), so expect volatility for the duration. The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

45 minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 14th 12.45pm GMT), which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 12
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    • 19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    • 22:15:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Wed Dec 13
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    • 19:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
  • Thu Dec 14
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    • 17:25:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: Although this pair is looking heavy, the Aussie is at a key technical level with previous demand, the half way back is nearby and an ascending trend line. The 0.75 price is a key level to watch. Keep an eye on any moves on the commodities such as gold, which will impact this FX pair.

BTCUSD: After an eye-watering retracement last week where we saw $13000 tested, it looks like bitcoin may try and test the all-time highs once again.

EURUSD: Pundits have been calling the end of Euro for some time but this pair remains in the range for now. We are watching the edges of the consolidation for the market to tip its hand.

Gold: Have we broken down or are we just running the stops at these lows? Daily closes under 1250 and we could see a deeper move down. Closes above 1260 and the bulls may try for some of the higher numbers.

USDJPY: We remain within the yearly range for now. The main levels to watch are 110.50 and 114.50 to see if these are defended as they have been before.

USDCAD: The lows held last week after that very bearish daily candle. It looks like the highs may be tested and we have the equidistant swing completing into the 200 SMA.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
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TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Final 2017 hike for FOMC?

Which way will rates go?

The vast majority of US traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% on Wednesday 13th at 7pm GMT so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference at 7.30pm GMT should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Top Tiql Tips: 28 Nov to 1 Dec

Your Tiql tips are like this cat

Your free guide to the markets this week is a gift to help you to earn more with TIQL. We’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week because economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Fed Chair Change
This week traders will be excited to hear from Federal Chair Designate Powell. Powell is lined up to take over the hot seat from the current Chair, Yellen, in February 2018. With only weeks to go, markets are keen to know his take on the economy. They get the chance to hear his views when he testifies on his nomination before the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday 28th 3pm GMT). Currently Federal Governor, Jerome Powell is Trump’s pick as the next leader of the national bank. Trump says “He’s strong, he’s committed, he’s smart.”

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin(Tuesday 28th 8.45pm GMT) is speaking about the evolving structure of the US treasury market. As Trump’s economic spokesman this is a key event that could deliver news on changing policies. Dollar markets and stock indices will be affected if that happens.

Finally, Yellen is due to testify on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (Wednesday 29th 3pm GMT). As the current Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, her views are the most important, and there is possibility of one more rate rise before she is replaced in February.

GBP: Bank Stress
The 2008 crisis led to the creation of the Bank Stress Test (Tuesday 28th 7am GMT) in the UK to try and forestall any similar events happening in the future. Designed to find out 7 key banks’ stability and capital reserve adequacy any fails would send minor shockwaves through the City of London and push the currency down.  Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gives a Press Conference (Tuesday 28th 7.30am GMT) about the results, which could cause volatility on the markets.

Carney talks again (Wednesday 29th 2pm GMT) discussing the Fair and Effective Markets Review at the Fixed Income Currencies and Commodities Markets Standards Board.

The Bank is under pressure after shocking reports suggesting stagnant incomes may not exceed their 2008 levels until 2022. The economy is facing inflation and unemployment is low but productivity estimates and business investment are down. The OBR revised growth estimates to 1.5% from 2% at the end of last week. With a recent rate increase, some are wondering if the Bank made the right move.

CAD: Is it working hard or just hard work?
December starts this Friday and with it a wealth of employment news that could affect the Canadian dollar. A positive employment streak has boosted Canada since August 2016 and that looks set to continue if forecasts for Employment Change (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) are correct. As you’d expect, the Unemployment Rate (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) has steadily fallen since it stood at 7.0% in August 2016 and is currently at 6.3% but if that changed, markets would react.

Both figures are important to the economy but GDP (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) is an essential measure of economic health. Released monthly in Canada, GDP shrank by -0.1% for the first time in nine months suggesting things aren’t altogether rosy in Mountie country.

If you want to kick off the action with CAD earlier in the week, it might be good fun to ride the volatility around BoC Governor Poloz’s Press Conference (Tuesday 28th 4.30pm GMT). While he’s talking about the Financial System Review, questions from the press could lead to insights into his attitude towards the current pressures facing the Canadian economy and that could change traders minds about buying or selling. Enjoy.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Tue Nov 28
07:00:00 UTC 2017 GBP Bank Stress Test Results
07:30:00 UTC 2017 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD Fed Chair Designate Powell Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD CB Consumer Confidence
16:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
20:45:00 UTC 2017 USD Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks
20:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Wed Nov 29
00:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Prelim GDP q/q
14:00:00 UTC 2017 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
15:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thu Nov 30
00:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
00:30:00 UTC 2017 AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
0:00:00 UTC 2017 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Unemployment Claims

Fri Dec 01
09:30:00 UTC 2017 GBP Manufacturing PMI
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD GDP m/m
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD Employment Change

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: BTC just keeps on impulsing higher. Next resistance is $10,000. We broke through key resistance over weekend trading.

Crude Oil: We’ve seen some selling pressure at the supply zone at $58.50. Key support is at $55 with further resistance at $60 should we break through the highs.

EURUSD: We traded out of the channel last week and this pair is currently trading above 1.19. This price is key for the bulls and if they can sustain here they might gun for 1.2051 and the recent September highs.

GBPUSD: The bulls have managed to keep this pair supported. If they can sustain above 1.3350 on a daily closing basis, there could be a bullish thesis with a target of 1.35 (the 50% retracement from the 2016 move down).

Gold: We’ve been anticipating the rotation higher on Gold. We are testing some key resistance at 1300. Daily closes above this level and the bulls may target 1350. As long as gold trades above 1260 and within the channel, the bullish thesis for this market remains in place.

USDJPY: This pair is looking heavy now, having failed to take out the highs near 114.50 a number of times. We have possible intraday supply at 111.75 and the Yen is currently probing support at 110.75.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: Change is a-coming

Change doesn’t always work

This week traders will be excited to hear from Federal Chair Designate Powell. Powell is lined up to take over the hot seat from the current Chair, Yellen, in February 2018. With only weeks to go, markets are keen to know his take on the economy. On Tuesday 28th at 3pm GMT, they get the chance to hear his views when he testifies on his nomination before the Senate Banking Committee. Currently Federal Governor, Jerome Powell is Trump’s pick as the next leader of the national bank. Trump says “He’s strong, he’s committed, he’s smart.”

Also on Tuesday 28th (8.45pm GMT), Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is speaking about the evolving structure of the US treasury market. As Trump’s economic spokesman this is a key event that could deliver news on changing policies. Dollar markets and stock indices will be affected if that happens.

Finally, Yellen is due to testify on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday 29th at 3pm GMT. As the current Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, her views are the most important, and there is possibility of one more rate rise before she is replaced in February.