Top Tiql Tips: 22nd to 26th Jan 2018

Guess who got her Tiql Tips?

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

EUR: hotting up on the continent
When did the Eurozone start looking so good? Bearish attitudes to the US dollar this week make the euro an even better prospect. Some analysts are surprised as surging stock markets and booming economies are a world away from where many though Europe would be right now. A quick glance at the European indices on Monday morning showed green from top to bottom. But what will the rest of the week bring? Two main events stand out.

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th) is a hub of business bigwigs and political heavyweights from across the globe. Meetings shaping economic policy and international business agendas go alongside whispered conversations that could be worth billions in the coffee bars and corridors. Listen out for any news concerning eurozone countries, currencies and businesses.

This event is likely to affect EURUSD and Dax.

Also big news this week, the European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 25th January at 7.45am GMT) currently stands at 0.00%. No change is forecast, which sounds like nothing. However, if the zone’s economy is doing well and inflation is looming, there is an argument for rates to rise. Pay very close attention to the ECB Press Conference (Thursday 25th at 8.30am GMT) for clues to the future direction of the central bank’s interest rate policy. Traders will react if there are suggestions of a rise on the way and the EUR could go on a ride.

Likely to affect all EUR pairs.

USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week
There are lots of trading events affecting the dollar and US stock markets this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP. It seems not even political catastrophes like a shut down government are going to put traders off their business. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, USD traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.

One global event any USD players might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!

Although Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question due to domestic trouble, his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets.

Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).

Crude Oil Inventories has been in major decline since mid-November 2017 with an astonishing -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were slightly off-key with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to believe them this week either (Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT). If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.

Finally, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP (Friday 26th at 8.30am GMT). Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.

JPY: what’s the outlook for the Bank of Japan?
Things are rather depressed. The current long-term monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan has seen inflation creeping upwards but it’s not getting anywhere near the 2% target. Recent growth in the economy and rather too rosy expectations of medium to long-term rise in economic output makes Bank insiders think no change in policy is the way to go.

December’s solitary voice of dissent, newcomer Goushi Kataoka, argued that additional quantitive easing should be implemented to bolster the economy as the likelihood of inflation speeding up was so remote. The target for 10-year-bonds is 0% yield while interest rates stand at -0.1%. It’s not a pretty picture.

With the next update in March, few see a change in policy this month. Some analysts are even predicting current policy will stick until at least 2019. But Kataoka has cracked open the door to allow different opinions so the 8-1 ratio may change. If that happens, you can be sure markets will react.

After the Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and Rate are announced (lunchtime Monday 22nd), the Press Conference (1.30am GMT Tuesday 23rd) should provide the most action on the markets for this event.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Jan 23
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    03:55:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
  • Wed Jan 24
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q
  • Thu Jan 25
    12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Fri Jan 26
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Prelim GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Advance GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
    14:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    14:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: The Aussie has come up against some supply. While there may be more upside to go on this pair, it makes sense that there may be some correction on this pair. The half way back near the 200 SMA and previous supply might be of interest to the buyers. Right now, 0.80 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Gold: Gold has had a good run and is trading near some potential supply. Traders will be watching the 1345 zone to see how price behaves this week. If we get a move down, 1300 would make a good target for the bears and a likely place for the buyers to leg into any potential moves up.

GBPUSD: We are trading near a key level on cable. 1.40 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Crude Oil: The bulls have had a good run and we could imagine some covering going on at this level perhaps. The chart below outlines the key levels on crude as we approach the end of January.

USDJPY: Still range bound for now. The key levels to watch are 110.00 and 111.75 to see where traders can push this to. Bank of Japan news out early Tuesday and the speech on Friday might give this pair enough volatility to test these levels.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week

US trading fun

Traders are excited about US currency and stock market trading opportunities this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP so it seems no political mishaps are going to put them off. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, dollar traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.

World Economic Forum

One global event you might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!

Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question as the US government shut down started last week. But his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets. Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).

Oil

Crude Oil Inventories has been in terminal decline since mid-November 2017 with a stonking -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were completely wrong with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to listen on Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT either. If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.

US Advance GDP

If all that isn’t enough, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP on Friday 26the at 8.30am GMT. Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.

 

 

Top Tiql Tips: 15th to 19th Jan 2018

Sharing tips makes us happy bunnies

Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

CAD: Bank Rate Thursday 

Traders get all excited when a national bank announces its latest rate and this week it’s Canada’s turn (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th). Its key Overnight Rate currently stands at 1.00% though forecasters predict a rise to 1.25% on the back of strong hints from banking figures. The last change was in September last year when it also rose by 0.25% from 0.75%.
It’s likely the rise will have been priced in so traders are more interested in the Rate Statement (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th), which might give insights into the reasons behind the decision and reveal any discord among the committee members. The Press Conference (4.15pm GMT Wednesday 17th) will be the most volatile time as the BoC Governor fields questions from the press.

CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

The world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies this week. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7% ( 7am GMT Thursday 18th).

At the same time Industrial Production is released (7am GMT Thursday 18th). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. It looks like Industrial Production will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any deviation from this will impact widely.
The Chinese currency is increasingly important after recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017. Definitely one to watch.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (4pm GMT Thursday 18th). AUD is also related with a couple of good events this week.

USD: What would MLK say?

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday (Monday 15th January) – Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. After recent comments about Haiti and Africa, some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke. But he likes a day off as much as the next man.

US currency and commodities traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th January). This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Unemployment Claims (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th) will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reins of the economy next month.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

Tue Jan 16
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
Wed Jan 17 
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
◦ 16:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Press Conference
Thu Jan 18 
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
◦ 16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
Fri Jan 19 
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: 13000 was defended late last week and BTCUSD is presently trading just above 14000. Where to next for this crypto? Who knows in the short term. We have resistance at 15,000 and previous demand at 13,000 and 12,000; these are the levels we are watching as we go into the trading week.

Brent Oil: $70 looks like an interesting level to watch on this market where we had previous demand there from 2015. $65 may support with previous recent demand.

Crude: Crude oil is also at a potential decision point. Will the bulls push on or is this the level sellers come in?

EURUSD: The euro has been well bought over the last few days. For now, the 1.23 level is key and we have seen some of the longs covering their positions here.

Gold: Looks like a retest of the highs is on the cards if the bulls can keep on the pressure. The chart below highlights some support and resistance levels, which may be of interest.

USDCAD: All eyes on 1.24 to see where it goes from here. More dollar weakness and we may see this level breached this week.

GBPUSD: 1.38 is a key level this week. We are testing the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and an old low made before the Brexit vote. This drive higher has been aided by the weak dollar and some recent news on Brexit negotiations.

USDJPY: the Yen is testing a key level now at 110.75. Below this, we might expect a test of the round number 110 and if we get a deeper correction, the 107.5 where we found demand before. Any trades back into the consolidation and 113 might provide resistance.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
 Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

Happiness

On Thursday 18th at 7am GMT the world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7%.

At the same time Industrial Production is released (Thursday 18th at 7am GMT). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. This looks like it will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any changes will impact widely.

The currency is increasing in importance with recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (Thursday 18th at 4pm). AUD is also related.

Top Tiql Tips: your weekly market guide (8th to 12th Jan)

Here’s to a new year of trading in 2018

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and highlighting some dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: PPI & CPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) (Thursday 11th January 1.30pm GMT) has been stable at 0.4% for three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Friday 12th January 1.30pm GMT) has been rather more volatile with no clear trend for many years.

Both data impact how the markets view USD because of their connection to the domestic economy, which is the key factor in USD value. PPI impacts inflation and it’s interesting to note recent news, according to the FT, that market investors are currently choosing funds that protect against inflation. The target rate of 2% inflation is close to how things stand so the forecast seems reasonably steady for Federal Reserve Bank’s new Chair, Powell, when he starts next month.

We are sure Powell will be keeping a close eye on the less-predictable CPI due the Reserve Bank’s mandate to contain inflation. A low figure this week will probably be seen by most as a good result.

Oil: politics affects prices
This week Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 10th January 3.30pm GMT) is likely to see another drop but what that does to USD remains to be seen.

In 2017 OPEC worked hard to manipulate the price of oil by agreeing to reduce production levels. Other like-minded oil producers, such as Russia, joined them. Stock levels were high for a long time and prices didn’t recover as well as they’d have liked leading to a change in how things work in Saudi Arabia. This hit the news last week as 11 Saudi princes were arrested for demonstrating against their newly imposed utility bills. Life is so hard as a modern Middle East prince. So hard.

There are mixed views on whether oil production overall will rise this year and that is a determining factor in price. To ensure its arms sales to the Middle East go smoothly, Russia is unlikely to renege on its deal with OPEC. Other oil-producing countries face war, poor infrastructure and natural declines in production leading some to declare supplies will fall and prices will increase.

On the other hand, the US has not been working with OPEC to reduce output and shale production is on the rise boosting US oil inventories. Trump’s America First policy means it is likely to push forward with production and that could keep prices low. This would be good news for US domestic gas guzzlers as well as manufacturers in the heartland of Trump’s power base. In an election year, he is sure to have this in mind.

GBP: Manufacturing Production monthly
Post-Brexit Britain has been on a bumpy economic ride. Confusion over what Brexit actually means and posturing in the EU negotiations has resulted in nervous markets. While UK unemployment is at its lowest for 40 years, productivity appears so subdued that the Bank of England raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.

It would be fair to say that the UK has been the slowest to recover from the crash of 2008 of all the advanced economies. This week Manufacturing Production monthly (Wednesday 10th January 9.30am GMT) will shed light on progress. If the Brits start making more and selling more both domestically and internationally, some of those jitters might calm down. And for the last 3 months manufacturing production has been rising nicely. Maybe the EU market isn’t such a big deal?

Only joking – news that broke on 7th January 2018 suggested UK importers may face massive increases in upfront cost increases. And it’s a shame then that analysts saw December’s Manufacturing Production monthly figure of 0.7% as something of a peak. They reckon it is going to fall back to as low as 0.1%. Let’s be positive – at least it is in the black. But if they’re right or if it’s even worse than that, markets really won’t like it. Manufacturing Production makes up about 80% of total industrial production and it’s quick to react to consumer conditions. All in all, GBP is starting 2018 on the back foot.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Mon Jan 08
    • 15:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
  • Wed Jan 10
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Jan 11
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
  • Fri Jan 12
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin almost reached the $20,000 level before falling off dramatically before the end of the year. Right now we are ping-ponging in a range between $13,000 and $17,000. Any breaks below the $13,000 support and $12,000 and $11,000 has attracted buyers before.

USDJPY: This pair has been moving in a range now for some time. We have resistance at 113.75 and significant previous demand at 1114.50. 112 is supporting with the 200 simple moving average close by.

Crude Oil: Looking at the weekly and we can can there may be some supply near $63. We might see some tactical shorting here but this looks bullish above $60.

EURUSD: we have come off of the highs with sellers coming in at the August highs. A retracement to the halfway back and previous demand may see this pair pull back to 118 before retesting the highs.

GBPUSD: Cable is still technically in a channel making higher highs and higher lows. There could be some unfinished business at 1.38 on this pair, which was the support level dramatically broken on the Brexit vote. If you’d been long on this pair for a while, it might be a level to cover. The bears might be eyeing this level as well as a point of interest for a short play.​

Gold: Gold bugs will be bullish on this market above 1300. We have moved back into the channel again and the recent highs of 1357 could be retested. Below 1300, this starts to look bearish and we may start to see a deeper correction.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Oil: stockpiles and inventories

Saudi swing

This week Crude Oil Inventories, out on Wednesday 10th January at 3.30pm GMT, is likely to see another drop but what that does to USD remains to be seen.

In 2017 OPEC worked hard to manipulate the price of oil by agreeing to reduce production levels and other like-minded oil producers, like Russia, promised to join them. Stock levels were high and prices were low leading to news last week that 11 Saudi princes were arrested for demonstrating against their new utility bills. Life is so hard as a modern Middle East prince.

There are mixed views on whether oil production overall will rise this year. To ensure its arms sales to the Middle East go smoothly, Russia is unlikely to renege on its deal with OPEC. Other oil-producing countries face war, poor infrastructure and natural declines in production leading some to declare supplies will decrease and prices will rise.

On the other hand, US shale production is increasing and boosting US oil inventories. Trump’s America First policy means it will push forward with production and could keep prices low. This would be good news for domestic gas guzzlers and manufacturers in the heartland of Trump’s power base. In an election year, he is sure to have this in mind.

WTI Crude Breaks Key Resistance at $60 But May Be Trading Into Possible Supply

Crude Oil has begun the trading year by breaking above key resistance near $60 and at the same time is trading close to a previous demand zone made in 2015. Bull/Bear case here for Crude. All eyes on the $60 to $63 range to see what happens next.

Oil inventories out today may give some volatility to this market.

Good trading!

All eyes on oil as it trades near resistance
Crude Oil trading in key $60 – $63 zone.

Festive Tiql Tips: 19th to 22nd December

Merry Christmas from all of us at Tiql

It’s the week before Christmas and many traders around the world are winding down. Remember many countries including the US won’t trade on Monday 25th and a lot of traders will take next week off.

But there is a packed calendar of events to trade before the long weekend so we’d like to help you to earn more with TIQL by giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: twas the week before Christmas
If you haven’t moved your portfolio to Bitcoin, kick off your week with some USD action with Building Permits (Tuesday 19th 1.30pm GMT). Last month’s increase to 1.32M looks like a blip as forecasts indicate a drop back to 1.28M ending the year up from where it started.

Analysts forecast the quarterly Final GDP (Thursday 21st 1.30pm GMT) at 3.3% up from last quarter’s 3.1%. This is almost as high as December last year when it peaked at 3.5% before dropping sharply back to 1.4% by July.

Core Durable Goods (Friday 22nd 1.30pm GMT) is a great indicator of manufacturing health and is likely to be less than the 0.9% revised figure from last month at 0.5% predicted.

It’s a mixed bag for the US but in the context of a tax cutting bonanza for corporations the economy looks appealing and many pundits see a strong currency.

GDP: 3 events to trade
Gross Domestic Product is a popular snapshot into the economy as it measures the change in the value of all goods and services adjusted by inflation. This week we get to grips with GDP for three major economies – Canada, New Zealand and the United States as traders set up their positions for the holiday season.

Canada’s economy is either rebounding or back to Earth depending on which pundits you prefer. What they mean is it is anybody’s guess at this point. CAD is an interesting currency to trade and the uncertainty could give you plenty of opportunities to cash in. The GDP forecast (Friday 22nd 1.30pm GMT) is for 0.2% to stay the same.

New Zealand seems to have a more positive consensus in analysts circles with views that its economy is on the up. But, in contrast, GDP growth may apparently slow. This month’s GDP news (Wednesday 20th 9.45pm GMT) is forecast to contract to 0.6% from 0.8%.

The U.S. quarterly Final GDP data (Thursday 21st 1.30pm GMT) is looking strong. If it reaches predictions of 3.3% it will almost be back at its December 2016 peak.

Oil: a booming market
Traders have enjoyed the strongest year in oil for some time with prices up almost 15% as we head towards the end of the year despite the raft of bearish news in recent weeks.

OPEC has worked hard to cut production although this hasn’t always been fully supported, even within its own ranks. The result has been generally positive and US Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 19th 3.30pm GMT) also show reductions for the majority of the year since mid-February, supporting a rising price. Last week’s -5.1M barrels wasn’t dissimilar from the week before and there’s every indication that prices will remain strong. But every trader will tell you that oil can turn on a dime. The question is whether this is the week that will happen .

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 19
    • 00:30:00 UTC 2017 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Building Permits
  • Wed Dec 20
    • 13:15:00 UTC 2017 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    • 15:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 21:45:00 UTC 2017 NZD GDP q/q
  • Thu Dec 21
    • 03:50:00 UTC 2017 JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    • 04:00:00 UTC 2017 JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    • 06:30:00 UTC 2017 JPY BOJ Press Conference
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Final GDP q/q
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Fri Dec 22
    • 09:30:00 UTC 2017 GBP Current Account
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    • 13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD GDP m/m

Some Markets to Watch…
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

AUDUSD: We saw Australian strength last week as the AUDUSD climbed to test the 200 SMA near a key supply zone and descending trend line. For now the range is defined by 0.77 and 0.75.

BTCUSD: $20,000 is beginning to look vulnerable now before the new year at this rate. Above 17,000, the outlook remains bullish.

Crude: Looking at the weekly chart, crude oil is approaching some significant potential supply near the $64 zone. We have an ABCD pattern playing out and completing in the confluence of two 50% extensions from earlier bullish moves. Drilling down to the daily chart, we can see there is near term resistance at $59 with some recent support (which was resistance) nearby ab $55.

GBPUSD: 1.3250 continues to be the line in the sand for Cable (the term used by traders to refer to GBPUSD). A level which may be of interest to the bulls as a likely target is 1.38, which is the low made in February of last year and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement from the Brexit move down. For now, the channel is holding at 1.325, which remains a key level.

Gold: This market has begun to move back into the range after the break down below 1260 and out of the channel. Any daily closes above 1260 and this can be considered to be trading in the range. If the sellers come in and manage to get below 1250 on a daily closing bases and we could see a deeper correction to 1205 before the shorts cover.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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Oil: a booming market

Harry knows

Traders have enjoyed the strongest year in oil for some time with prices up almost 15% as we head towards the end of the year despite the raft of bearish news in recent weeks.

OPEC has worked hard to cut production although this hasn’t always been fully supported, even within its own ranks. The result has been generally positive and US Crude Oil Inventories also show reductions for the majority of the year since mid-February, supporting a rising price. Last week’s -5.1M barrels wasn’t dissimilar from the week before and there’s every indication that prices will remain strong. But every trader will tell you that oil can turn on a dime. The question is whether this is the week that will happen. Find out on Wednesday 19th at 3.30pm GMT.

USD: the week ahead

‘Merica

The big ticket calendar event is the ever volatile Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 8th Dec 1.30pm GMT), which is forecast to slow down by over a fifth this month growing by only 200k. As the Reserve Bank has set itself a target of zero unemployment, any reduction is likely to be taken badly.

Despite last month’s surprise employment drop, the dollar remained bullish to the end of that trading week. This time we have the recent tax bill, which continues to boost US markets at the start of this week. Both signs suggest there is a lot of support for the dollar available.

Things that may wobble USD markets this week include the political powder keg of North Korea, Trump’s twitter feed, and oil (Crude Oil Inventories, Wednesday 6th Dec 3.30pm GMT).