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Your free guide to the markets this week!
To help you to earn more with TIQL, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
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Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
GBP: Time to talk Brexit
Cable’s set for some disruption (Friday 2nd March 9am GMT) if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead. Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will set out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. The local press indicate a distinct lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.
Sterling and Bitcoin traders will also pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference (Friday 2nd March 10am). Should be interesting.
Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st March 9.30am) looks reasonably healthy at 55.3 although this is under forecasts and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am) on the other hand reflects an industry under the cosh. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the borderline between positive and negative outlooks. Some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, though headlines indicate falling London prices and empty properties suggesting this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?
USD: markets holding their breath till Powell testifies
New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat for his first major speech to the US government this week when he delivers his first testimony to Congress (Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT). Markets across the world are treading water as they wait to hear what the pearls of wisdom he will share.
Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.
Powell speaks again (Thursday 1st March 3pm GMT) when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. It might be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something. It’s a definite opportunity but no-one knows which way things will go.
Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday.
Other important events likely to affect the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 27th 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 27th 3pm GMT), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 28th 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).
AUD & NZD: volatile times down under
Watch out for volatility as antipodean currencies react to Powell’s first major speeches in post as the US Federal Reserve Bank Chair. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have ‘interesting’ relationships with other currencies, especially sterling, USD and the Chinese yuan.
Also this week, the Kiwi dollar faces the likelihood of another pessimistic ANZ Business Confidence score (Wednesday 28th February 12am GMT). Hitting 0.0 back in September after a lengthy period of positivity, traders haven’t had an update since December as there is no data released in January. They will be keen to learn if the main industrial drivers of agriculture, manufacturing, retail, construction and services see a dim or bright future in 2018.
Business also takes centre stage in the Aussie economy as Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1st March 12.30am GMT) delivers a snapshot of economic health. Looking at the change in total inflation adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses, this data is a leading indicator of the health of the economy as increased business spending is seen to drive employment and growth. If it drops, jobs are likely to go and vice versa. Standing at 1.0% it’s predicted to rise to 1.1% supporting the view of business leaders that 2018 will be a boom year. Let’s see if they’re right.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Tue Feb 27
- 13:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
- Wed Feb 28
- 00:00:00 GMT NZD ANZ Business Confidence
- 13:30:00 GMT USD Prelim GDP q/q
- 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
- Thu Mar 01
- 00:30:00 GMT AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
- 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- 15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Fri Mar 02
- 09:00:00 GMT GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
- 09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
- 10:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
- Sun Mar 04
- 09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election
Some Markets to Watch…
Bitcoin: BTCUSD broke back above 10,000 before hitting supply near the $12,000. It’s currently trading near $10,700. The key levels to watch are at $9000 and $12000 as we go into the week.
Crude Oil: Oil has confounded the bears, at least temporarily, by climbing the page. The chart below shows the bull bear lines which are of interest.
S&P Futures: The S&P broke out from a multi-day consolidation and is presently trading above 2750. The chart below shows the supply and demand zones which may be of interest to traders.
USDJPY: All eyes on the 107 to 108 zone. We are trading near some significant chart structure. More pressure on the dollar and we might expect some further downside on this FX pair.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
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