Top Tiql Tips: 4th to 8th Dec

Like Meghan we’re excited

We’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week to help you to earn more with TIQL. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: the week ahead
The big ticket calendar event is the ever volatile Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 8th Dec 1.30pm GMT), which is forecast to slow down by over a fifth this month growing by only 200k. As the Reserve Bank has set itself a target of zero unemployment, any reduction is likely to be taken badly.

Despite last month’s surprise employment drop, the dollar remained bullish to the end of that trading week. This time we have the recent tax bill, which continues to boost US markets at the start of this week. Both signs suggest there is a lot of support for the dollar available.

Things that may wobble USD markets this week include the political powder kegs of North Korea, Trump’s twitter feed, and Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 6th Dec 3.30pm GMT).

AUD: which way is the economy heading?
The antipodean currency is often buffeted by changes in USD, CNY and other major trading partners making it a fun one to trade. This week offers some homegrown events that could get the markets excited.

There is a chance the Current Account will improve by nearly 1 billion USD (Tuesday 5th 12.30am GMT), which would start the week well. Retail Sales (Tuesday 5th 12.30am GMT) are also forecast to improve (0.0% to 0.3% growth), while the big news is the Rate Statement (3.30am GMT Tuesday 5th). In October, this was kept at a record low of 1.5% and there are mixed views on what will happen this week though most suspect it will stay the same. The argument is that low rates are stimulating the economy.

Later in the week, GDP is forecast to drop by 0.1% to 0.7% (Wednesday 6th 12.30am GMT) and the Trade Balance looks set to shrink by around 0.3 billion or so (Thursday 7th 12.30am GMT). With mutterings about a recession or even depression in pundit circles, there is talk of a banking bubble built on a property bubble on a mining bubble on a commodities bubble all fuelled by a Chinese bubble. Is the Aussie economy about to go pop?

BTC: boom or bubble?
You’d have to be living under a rock to have missed the meteoric rise and fall of Bitcoin over the last few days. Hitting an incredible $11,000 peak on Wednesday 29th before falling back, the currency is climbing again (Monday 4th December) with no-one sure where it will go next. Debate has raged about the nature of the movement with many warning against investment, among them the Bank of France’s Governor saying “Bitcoin is a speculative asset and people who invest in it do so at their own risk”.

There are clearly fortunes to be made (and lost) in the gold rush for the cryptocurrency, which has no tangible asset form. With a global value outpacing that of some international banks, Bitcoin even outstrips some economies, such as New Zealand.

For market speculation with a thrill, and a sizeable risk, there is little to beat Bitcoin trading this week. US regulators have recently given the green light to futures trading on the asset adding further legitimacy to the flag-bearer of cryptocurrencies. However you feel about it compared to national currencies or commodities, this is a market worth exploring and open seven days a week.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 05
    00:15:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Current Account
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    03:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Rate Statement
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • Wed Dec 06
    00:30:00 GMT AUD GDP q/q
    13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
    15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Dec 07
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    16:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • Fri Dec 08
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its drive higher. We touched $11,800 over a volatile weekend of trading. $9000 and $8000 would be key areas to watch on any retraces which could be fast and deep on this market.

Crude Oil: As long as this market trades over the $55 with support from the 200 SMA and previous chart structure, it looks like this market might try and run the stops at the recent highs. There may be supply higher up given the price structure from the sell off in 2015. The bears will likely be watching the $58 and $60 levels. Any daily closes below $55 and the bears may try for a deeper move down to next potential demand zone at $52/$53.

EURUSD: While supported above 1.17, this may grind higher. We have a recent failed head and shoulders pattern which may still have some traders stuck short looking to get out.

GBPUSD: Cable has tested the old halfway back and continues to grind higher. The 61.8 is near 1.3860, which was a previous demand zone that was quickly broken through on Brexit news. The market may have some unfinished business at that price point. For now, above 1.32, this looks like it might continue to grinder higher. Any daily breaks below this level and the 200 SMA might beckon this market.

Gold: The shiny metal continues to move in the range. We have the 200 SMA and previous demand providing some support; for now, the technical picture has it consolidating and supported above the 1260.

USDCAD: The loonie has made a double top of sorts and has found some support at the previous supply zone (now acting as support) at 1.2650. For now, we are in a consolidation zone, any breaks down and the next major support zone might be 1.24.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.
Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

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TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD: the week ahead

‘Merica

The big ticket calendar event is the ever volatile Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 8th Dec 1.30pm GMT), which is forecast to slow down by over a fifth this month growing by only 200k. As the Reserve Bank has set itself a target of zero unemployment, any reduction is likely to be taken badly.

Despite last month’s surprise employment drop, the dollar remained bullish to the end of that trading week. This time we have the recent tax bill, which continues to boost US markets at the start of this week. Both signs suggest there is a lot of support for the dollar available.

Things that may wobble USD markets this week include the political powder keg of North Korea, Trump’s twitter feed, and oil (Crude Oil Inventories, Wednesday 6th Dec 3.30pm GMT).

Top Tiql Tips 30th Oct to 3rd Nov

Too exciting

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week just for you. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. And this week there’s plenty of action!

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Non-Farm on 3rd
A new month means Non-Farm Employment Change (12.30pm GMT Friday 3rd November). Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States, and this month’s release looks extra interesting.

We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative against a substantial predicted increase (82k). Yet analysts are forecasting an even more meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed. They reckon a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

USD: FOMC rate decision
November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise (6pm GMT Wednesday 1st). Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high. The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong, but of course, not everyone agrees.

The other news due from the Fed will be huge. The clock is ticking and everybody wants to know who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

GBP: rates and speeches
Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button (12pm GMT Thursday 2nd) and opinion is divided about whether he should. The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting.

There is a large amount of key BoE trading data on Thursday – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced.

Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. But no matter what he says, the Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding (12.30pm GMT Thursday 2nd) should lead to some volatile action on the markets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Oct 31
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    19:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
  • Wed Nov 01
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    20:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • Thu Nov 02
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
    12:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Fri Nov 03
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: We’ve begun the trading week by trading back above the 6000 and making new highs; completing the ABCD pattern we have been watching. Where next for Bitcoin? All eyes will be on $6000 to see if we hold going into the week. If BTCUSD is looking a bit rich for you, we have just added Ethereum and Litecoin for you to trade!

USDJPY: Traders are excited about this pair as we once again retest resistance at 114.50. This level is the line in the sand for traders and the risk events this week from Japan and the USA should move this cross one way or the other.

EURUSD: Towards the end of last week this pair traded outside of the chop zone formed over the last few months. The weekly chart shows some of the key levels that traders may be watching. A daily close below the 1.16 may entice the sellers to push this lower to the next support level of 1.13 and a retest of the descending trend line. A move back up and we might see more rotation on this pair.

Copper: This metal has failed at a retest of the highs and previous chart structure. Might we see a deeper correction if we can’t take out the highs? Next support zone near 2.8950.

Gold: We traded close to the October lows on Friday and we are currently trading above the key 1260 level and the 61.8 Fibonacci. Will the buyers hold the channel? 1260 is key for the long and short thesis on this market.

Crude Oil: Friday saw this market pop to the $54 zone. We are at an interesting level here with the completion of the ABCD pattern, the 50% extension and previous supply at around $55. The old highs look vulnerable for now and we could imagine the longs covering their positions on any weakness at these highs. The $52/$53 zone might attract some more buyers if they are going to make another run at the highs.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

USD non-farm drama

We may need a lie down

Get ready as a new month starts this week and we all know what that means –  Non-Farm Employment Change is out on Friday 3rd November. Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States and this week it’s hot on the heels of a US Fed Rate decision.

FX EURUSD
EURUSD holds the 1.16 demand zone for now

This month’s release looks extra interesting. We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative. Yet analysts are forecasting a meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed in October predicting a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

Gold market
Buyers hold the support zone in Gold

Non-Farm Friday is here

How much?!

Some predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change, out on Friday 6th at 12.30pm suggest a massive decline from 156K to 88K. This is way down from the recent peak in July of 222K. Then again, others think it will rise to 165K. Make of that what you will.

Bear in mind that forex traders are always interested in the latest figures on the economy of their chosen currency. They can extrapolate the rate of inflation and economic growth from news about wages, unemployment, and payroll. Of these, the non-farm payroll data is the earliest and most important. Including all payroll data for the previous month, except those in agriculture, an increase will be closely linked to economic growth and vice versa for a decrease. If the rate of increase speeds up we could also be looking at inflationary risks increasing.

USD lead up to Non-Farm

Unlike most predictions…

There is a packed week ahead for USD traders culminating in the capricious Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday 1st September at 1.30pm. When you add political tensions into the mix, there’s every reason to believe the dollar will be a little unsteady through the week and that means opportunities.

On Tuesday 29th at 3pm BST, US CB Consumer Confidence may dip according to forecasts (121.1 to 120.3) but the Preliminary GDP figures on Wednesday at 1.30pm BST are predicted to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%. That may be the only light shining this week for the world’s dominant currency as other data due to be released this week all looks either stable or in decline, at least according to the pundits. This is especially true for the powerful Non-Farm Employment Change, heralded as a key figure for traders everywhere, is anticipated to fall from 209K to 180K. But that’s the thing, pundits like to put it out there but there are many, many times when they are wrong. Sometimes they’re a little bit wrong, sometimes spectacularly so. Last month’s Non-Farm forecasts said 182k, but it was nearly 30k more. Which is where your own judgement comes in: is the world confident in the dollar this week or not?

Non-Farm Friday is here

USD traders monthly highlight, the Non-Farm Employment Change, or Non-Farm Payroll as it’s also known, returns on Friday 7th at 1.30pm GMT. Predictions are for a significant increase from last month’s shock 138k up to 175k. Employment and job creation are integral to currency and stock market trading as they correlate to consumer spending. This feeds directly into the market’s perception of the economic health of the country. Job levels have fluctuated wildly for the last few months so not every pundit believes the positive predictions.

EURUSD demand supply lines EURUSD FX
Support and resistance lines for EURUSD going into NFP

The dollar index started the week at 95.64 trading fairly low against the 52 week range. It hasn’t been a good year for the dollar so far as it’s trading down 6.26% in the year to date and the past week is down 1.51%. Traders will be looking for signs of strength and reasons why that might change. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 5th and the G20 meetings on Friday could also affect market perceptions.

And don’t forget 4th July is a federal holiday. US markets close early today and won’t reopen until 5th.

What’s the USD news this week?

some serious fun going on

Aside from the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, most USD action takes place from Wednesday onwards this week mainly kicking off with the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Usually traders are gagging to get their mitts on the in-depth reasonings of the FOMC, especially when they have changed things up as they did last month with the rate rise. But so many FOMC members have been speaking lately and only one dissenting voice (Kashkari) has been heard, it feels to many like we already know what it’s going to say. So there is a chance the markets won’t react much to the release at 7pm GMT.

Wednesday 5th also delivers the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at around 1.15pm and 3pm GMT respectively. A significant drop is expected from the current 298k increase in employment to 191k. It’s still an increase but it’s dramatically lower than last month. Additionally, it could give some insight into the all-important Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday at 1.30pm GMT.

Remember Wednesday’s announcement is computer guesswork based on analysis of payroll data, while Friday’s is the real deal government figures.

Friday’s Non-Farm is expected to fall as well, but even further, going from 238k to 176k. The increase in Average Hourly Earnings released at the same time isn’t expected to show a change with a steady 0.2% increase on the cards. And the Unemployment Rate is also expected to remain the same at 4.7%. This is despite Thursday’s  new Unemployment Claims figures predicted to show a small drop from 258k to 251k.

But behind everything is the USA-China Summit running across Thursday and Friday. Trump’s tweets and photo ops could send everything off course.

Why do traders love Non-Farm Fridays?

A bit over excited there, old chap – GIPHY

Non-Farm Payroll released at 1.30pm GMT on Friday 10th March is one of those monthly dollar events that gets traders across the globe a bit excited. It’s the heady combination of significance and timeliness that gives it its zing as its released so soon after the month ends. Employment levels, especially job creation figures, give a strong insight into the economy as people tend to spend more when they have an income. Obvious, but important.

Figures have fluctuated in recent months, which is not surprising given the turmoil of political events. But January gave USD markets a boost with the first higher-than-expected Non-Farm result since August last year (227k).

Forexfactory 050317
Forexfactory 05/03/17

Forecasts predict a slow down in the rate of increase to 185k from last month’s high. The Unemployment Rate, released at the same time, looks set for a relatively stable 4.7% (down from 4.8%), and Average Hourly Earnings are predicted a boost from 0.1% to 0.3%. Put it all together and if the forecasters are correct, the US economy is looking fairly steadily on the up.

Chart with EURUSD FX pair
EURUSD tends to move for NFP

The question on traders’ lips everywhere though is whether or not this will encourage Yellen’s crew on the Federal Open Reserve Committee to go for a rate rise next week. Recent speeches by Yellen and others on the committee are being interpreted to mean that this could well be the case so traders will be pricing that into their buy and sell decisions if they believe the rumours.

Trade with TIQL – Invest from $0.01 in a trade

Whatever direction you think the markets are going to go, you can trade them with TIQL. You can invest from as low as 1¢ in a trade and deposit from $5. All our trades come with automatic guaranteed stops – you can not lose more than the amount you have invested in a trade.