AUD bank rate Tuesday

Happy with what he has

AUD is an interesting currency and this week it hits the headlines with its latest Bank Rate revelation (Tuesday 3rd 5.30am GMT). The Bank Rate has stood steady at 1.50% since it dropped by 0.25% in August 2016. While the economy has been trying to get itself back on its feet not many pundits have expected any changes.

But as things start looking better more voices are wondering when the next rise will happen. Could it be this week? Unlikely, depending on who you talk to. This means all action will be around the Rate Statement (Tuesday 3rd 5.30am) to see what the bank rate committee had to say and if change is coming on the horizon. Expect market changes for the Aussie dollar as traders analyse the comments and try to forecast where the national interest rates will go and when. It looks like they’ll be happy with things staying pretty much the same.

2 major Central Bank speeches (USD, GBP)

Banging parrot

The week ends with a bang as Bank of England Mark Carney addresses an international climate risk conference in Amsterdam (4.15pm GMT Friday 6th). The clamour for a rate rise in the UK is growing but the mixed forecast has Bank representatives sitting on the fence. GBP traders could change their positions as the week closes if Carney drops any hints in the speech.

Federal Reserve newcomer Jermone Powell gives a speech and answers questions at the Economic Club of Chicago (Friday 6th 6.30pm GMT). If his comments look hawkish that is usually seen as good for the currency. It’s a busy week for USD traders so this could see them planning their action for Monday rather than any big changes as the week closes for trading on Friday.

Interest rates have such a crucial effect on currency value expect fluctuations around both events and enjoy your Friday afternoon trades.

GBP: Bank Rate Thursday

HMS GBP in the markets this week

Mark Carney, Chair of the Bank of England, has his moment in the sun on Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT as the Official Bank Rate is revealed. Pundits have priced a rise in for May, but there are mutterings of an early rise that could shake a few foundations. Nothing is off the cards this week.

The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT)  has held steady at 0-0-9 since the rise in November, but many expect to see that change as some voices express concerns about the health of the economy. The question is how many want a rise and how many think that would be a disaster. The Policy Summary, also Thursday at 12pm GMT, should give traders a good view of the Bank’s view of the economy.

Before they cast their votes, the CPI and PPI monthly data should give the Monetary Policy Committee more to think about on Tuesday 20th 9.30am GMT. CPI has been rising above inflation targets at 3% or more since September 2017, while PPI is volatile making forecasts difficult. The Average Earnings Index is another one to chuck in the mix on Wednesday 21st at 9.30am GMT. Finally climbing to more than 2% last August, the current 2.5% could jump again depending on who you talk to.

With more multinationals shifting operations to the continents and the ‘subsidiary’ offices in Frankfurt, Rotterdam and elsewhere taking shape, London’s status looks set to take a battering. Will a rate rise depress the currency like the iceberg for Titanic, or could the domestic boost be the life raft the sinking ship has been floundering for?

 

USD: rate rise time?

America boom

This is it. Never mind the threat of global war with Russia kicking off in Europe, markets sense a rate rise of 0.25% from the FOMC (Wednesday 21st 6pm GMT) and everyone has an opinion about it.

Expect massive volatility as things go wild during the Press Conference (Wednesday 21st 6.30pm GMT) as Jerome Powell faces the press. No matter what he does, raise rates or leave them be, the stock, currency and commodities markets want to know why.

Trump is slapping trade tariffs on countries like parking tickets, threatening trade wars with every continent that could knock the domestic economy for six. China is the latest in the firing line and we can’t see that ending well.

It’s got to be said that GDP is coming in close to Trump’s 3% target and his Twitter feed shows his usual modesty around that. Of course, stock market gains and recent improvements in small business confidence are largely powered by his much-touted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashing business rates from 35% to 21%, rather than actual growth, but some argue his policies are actually leading to massive debt. The sums don’t add up, depending on who you’re asking.

So, long story short, Powell is in a very hot seat and needs to steer the Reserve Bank’s fiscal policy to help calm the economic waters. Plan your in and out points and enjoy the USD ride this week.

Top Tiql Tips: 6th to 9th March

Sharing tips like buddies do

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are our predictions for data that could make trading news this week:​

4 Bank Rates to Rock the Week

If you like the roller coaster ride when banks make interest rate decisions, you’ve got a good week ahead with 4 major rates being set.

First to go is the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing its new Cash Rate (Tuesday 6th March 3.30am GMT). The Rate Statement, out at the same time, could have a few hidden gems but the 1.50% rate looks likely to stay the same.
The Bank of Canada releases its new Overnight Rate next (Wednesday 7th 3pm GMT). With the recent rise in January, not many expect any change so the accompanying Rate Statement will be where it’s at. Listen out for news on NAFTA – news about the trade agreement is having a noticeable effect on CAD at the moment.

Contending with the fallout from the Italian elections as populist parties gained strength, all EUR trading eyes switched to the ECB this week. The European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 8th 12.45pm GMT) has stood at 0.00% since March 2016. A majority of opinion holds that it won’t change this month either. The Eurozone economy was looking strong at the start of the year but experienced some bumps in the PMIs last month. This month Trump’s tariff threats add little positive to the mix so keeping things stable is high on the agenda.

Japan closes the week for bank rates when the Bank of Japan shares its latest Policy Rate (Friday 9th March time to be confirmed). Held at -0.1% since September 2016 there have been murmurs about a change of position. The Policy Statement and Press Conference should be good for positions into the weekend.

AUD: 7 essential data traders need to know

It’s a busy week for AUD traders with a plethora of data to digest. Here are the 7 essential data traders need to manage if they’re serious about their Aussie dollar action.

The biggest news of the week is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). The 1.50% rate has stood for 19 consecutive months and few people expect RBA Governor Lowe to break that status quo. Futures markets don’t see any rise this year, not even a teeny little 0.25% one. That makes things interesting when the general economy appears to be doing well but data suggests the Aussie consumer is heavily debt-laden.

The Rate Statement, out just after the Cash Rate, will have traders analysing every word for clues to the direction of future rate changes. RBA’s Governor, Rob Lowe, has a difficult path to navigate.

Not as significant as the Cash Rate, the Australian Current Account is actually the first major AUD event of the week (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). It should set the tone for traders. With the deficit set to grow from -9.1B to -12.3B, it doesn’t look like a cause for celebration.

Retail Sales (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT) adds more curious detail to the complex Australian picture with predictions of a swing to growth from -0.5% to 0.4%. Closely correlated to the domestic economy this is either a positive sign of a a strengthening economy or another nail in the debt coffin of the average citizen.

RBA Governor Lowe will address the issue of the Changing Nature of Investment in Sydney, Australia (9.35pm GMT Wednesday 7th March). Coming so soon after the new Cash Rate traders will be looking for indications of what Lowe plans to do next.

GDP (Wednesday 7th 12.30am GMT) had expectations of growth downgraded to 0.5% from 0.6%. That would be the second shrinkage in a row and way off the 1.1% seen a year ago.

The Aussie Trade Balance is the final major data of the AUD week (Thursday 8th 12.30am GMT). Forecasts suggest a swing from -1.36B to 0.22B in the black. With a weak AUDUSD pairing this could change a few minds to a positive outlook for the Australian dollar.

Plenty of events this week should give Tiql’s AUD traders lots of action and could see widely differing opinions of the currency emerge.

USD: vital job figures (but not for farmers) and other key data

Are you excited? We’re excited. What a trading week we’ve got this week for USD and the cream of the crop is Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 9th March 1.30pm GMT).

Recent months have seen employment levels go against predictions more times than Trump’s tweets have upset world leaders, so buckle up for a fun market ride this week. Standing at 200k pundits expect a rise to 204k. The domestic economy is the biggest influence on the dollar so finding out whether John Doe has a job matters.

Also big on the dollar calendar this week is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 3pm GMT) with a healthy 59.9 predicted to drop to 58.9. That’s still way above the 50 threshold between positive and negative outlooks.

And don’t forget your midweek oil news with Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 7th 3.30pm GMT). OPEC may be mostly sticking to its agreement to make cuts to shore up oil prices, but the US is having none of it. Last week saw an increase of 3.0M when analysts only forecast 2.4M and previous weeks have been in the black since mid-January apart from one minor blip two weeks back.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

    • Tue Mar 06
      • 18:15:00 GMT GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
      • 21:35:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
    • Wed Mar 07
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD GDP q/q
      • 13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
    • Thu Mar 08
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
      • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
      • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
      • 16:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
      • 20:35:00 GMT CAD Gov Council Member Lane Sp
    • Fri Mar 09
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
      • 06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
      • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin is pressured down as the market struggles to find fresh bullish catalysts to push it higher. We are currently trading within last week’s range. The key levels to watch are 12000 and 9000 as we go into the week.


USDJPY: We are still trading below a key zone and there is some clear trading space to 101. For now, this looks bullish on daily closes above 108 and bearish below 106. 101 remains a key area of interest for the bears.


Crude: Still in the range for now. Certainly a deeper correction is within reason. Right now the lines in the sand to watch are $61 and $64.


GBPUSD: The chart below says it all. We are trading at a key level here as you can see.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

4 Bank Rates to Rock the Week

Rates that rock

If you like to trade interest rate decisions, you’ve got a good week ahead with 4 major rates being set.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its new Cash Rate on Tuesday 6th March at 3.30am. The Rate Statement, out at the same time, could have a few hidden gems but the 1.50% rate looks likely to stay the same.

The Bank of Canada releases its Overnight Rate on Wednesday 7th at 3pm GMT. With the recent rise in January, few predict further change so the accompanying Rate Statement will be the focus of attention. Listen out for news on NAFTA, which is having a strong effect on CAD at the moment.

Contending with the fallout from the Italian elections as populist parties gained strength, all EUR trading eyes switch to the ECB this week. The Minimum Bid Rate is announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday 8th at 12.45pm. Standing at 0.00% since March 2016, a majority of opinion holds that this won’t change. The Eurozone economy was looking strong though there were some bumps in the PMIs last month. This month Trump’s tariff threats add little positive to the mix.

Japan closes the week for bank rates when the Bank of Japan shares its latest Policy Rate some time in the early hours of Friday 9th March. -0.1% since September 2016 there have been murmurs about a change of position. The following Policy Statement and Press Conference should be good for positions into the weekend.

AUD: 7 essential data traders need to know

Aussie action

It’s a busy week for AUD traders. Here are the 7 essential data you need to play if you’re serious about your Aussie dollar action.

  1.  (and 2.)  The biggest news of the week will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement on Tuesday 6th at 12.30am GMT. The 1.50% rate has stood for 19 consecutive months and few people expect RBA Governor Lowe to break that status quo. Futures markets don’t see any rise this year, not even a teeny little 0.25% one. That makes things interesting when the general economy appears to be doing well but data suggests the Aussie consumer is heavily debt-laden.
  2. The Rate Statement, out just after the Cash Rate, will have traders analysing every word for clues to the direction of future rate changes. RBA’s Governor, Rob Lowe, has a tricky path to navigate.
  3. RBA Governor Lowe speaks about the Changing Nature of Investment in Sydney, Australia at 9.35pm GMT on Wednesday 7th March. Coming so soon after the new Cash Rate traders will be looking for indications of what Lowe plans to do next.
  4. GDP, Wednesday 7th at 12.30am GMT, has expectations of growth downgraded to 0.5% from 0.6%. That would be the second shrinkage in a row and way off the 1.1% seen a year ago.
  5. The Aussie Trade Balance is big news on Thursday 8th at 12.30am GMT. Forecasts suggest a swing from -1.36B to 0.22B in the black. With a weak AUDUSD pairing this could change a few minds to a positive outlook for the Australian dollar.
  6. Not as significant as the Cash Rate, the Australian Current Account is actually the first major AUD event of the week on Tuesday 6th at 12.30am GMT. It should set the tone for traders. With the deficit set to grow from -9.1B to -12.3B, it doesn’t look like a cause for celebration.
  7. Retail Sales, also on Tuesday 6th at 12.30am GMT, adds more curious detail to the complex Australian picture with predictions of a swing to growth from -0.5% to 0.4%. Closely correlated to the domestic economy this is either a positive sign of a a strengthening economy or another nail in the debt coffin of the average citizen.

Plenty of events this week should give Tiql’s AUD traders lots of action and could see widely differing opinions of the currency emerge.

Top Tiql Tips: 27th Feb to 4th March

Tiql tips being delivered

Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: Time to talk Brexit

Cable’s set for some disruption (Friday 2nd March 9am GMT) if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead. Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will set out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. The local press indicate a distinct lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.

Sterling and Bitcoin traders will also pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference (Friday 2nd March 10am). Should be interesting.

Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st March 9.30am) looks reasonably healthy at 55.3 although this is under forecasts and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am) on the other hand reflects an industry under the cosh. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the borderline between positive and negative outlooks. Some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, though headlines indicate falling London prices and empty properties suggesting this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?

USD: markets holding their breath till Powell testifies

New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat for his first major speech to the US government this week when he delivers his first testimony to Congress (Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT). Markets across the world are treading water as they wait to hear what the pearls of wisdom he will share.

Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.

Powell speaks again (Thursday 1st March 3pm GMT) when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. It might be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something. It’s a definite opportunity but no-one knows which way things will go.

Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday.

Other important events likely to affect the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 27th 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 27th 3pm GMT), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 28th 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).

AUD & NZD: volatile times down under

Watch out for volatility as antipodean currencies react to Powell’s first major speeches in post as the US Federal Reserve Bank Chair. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have ‘interesting’ relationships with other currencies, especially sterling, USD and the Chinese yuan.

Also this week, the Kiwi dollar faces the likelihood of another pessimistic ANZ Business Confidence score (Wednesday 28th February 12am GMT). Hitting 0.0 back in September after a lengthy period of positivity, traders haven’t had an update since December as there is no data released in January. They will be keen to learn if the main industrial drivers of agriculture, manufacturing, retail, construction and services see a dim or bright future in 2018.

Business also takes centre stage in the Aussie economy as Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1st March 12.30am GMT) delivers a snapshot of economic health. Looking at the change in total inflation adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses, this data is a leading indicator of the health of the economy as increased business spending is seen to drive employment and growth. If it drops, jobs are likely to go and vice versa. Standing at 1.0% it’s predicted to rise to 1.1% supporting the view of business leaders that 2018 will be a boom year. Let’s see if they’re right.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Feb 27
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • Wed Feb 28
    • 00:00:00 GMT NZD ANZ Business Confidence
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Prelim GDP q/q
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Mar 01
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Fri Mar 02
    • 09:00:00 GMT GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    • 10:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    • 13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
  • Sun Mar 04
    • 09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: BTCUSD broke back above 10,000 before hitting supply near the $12,000. It’s currently trading near $10,700. The key levels to watch are at $9000 and $12000 as we go into the week.

Crude Oil: Oil has confounded the bears, at least temporarily, by climbing the page. The chart below shows the bull bear lines which are of interest.


S&P Futures: The S&P broke out from a multi-day consolidation and is presently trading above 2750. The chart below shows the supply and demand zones which may be of interest to traders.


USDJPY: All eyes on the 107 to 108 zone. We are trading near some significant chart structure. More pressure on the dollar and we might expect some further downside on this FX pair.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

GBP: Brexit, brexit, brexit

Time to talk Brexit

Cable’s set for some disruption on Friday 2nd March if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead (time to be confirmed). Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will be setting out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. Rumbles in the press indicate a wide lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.

Sterling and Bitcoin traders are also likely to pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference, Friday 2nd March 10am.

Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI, out on Thursday 1st March at 9.30am, looks quite healthy at 55.3 although this is lower than forecast and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI, Friday 2nd 9.30am, on the other hand reflects an industry under siege. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the 50 borderline between positive and negative outlook. Though some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, newspaper headlines around falling London prices and empty properties suggest this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?

USD: markets holding their breath till Fed Chair Powell testifies

The independent voice of the Fed as chosen by Trump

New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat and gearing up for his first major speech to the US government this week. He is due to deliver his first testimony to Congress on Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT. Markets across the world are subdued as they wait to hear what the new economic head of the free world has to say.

Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.

Powell speaks again on Thursday 1st March at 3pm GMT when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. If you are a fast reader, it could be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something.

Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday. So far, markets seem reassured that he plans to follow the line set by his predecessor, Yellen.

Other key events affecting the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 3pm), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).