To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
AUD & NZD: where will bank rates go this week?
Opinions are divided over what the Reserve Bank of Australia should do when it shares its latest Cash Rate (Tuesday 6th February 3.30am GMT). Rates haven’t changed since they dropped a quarter of a percentage point in August 2016 and Dr Lowe, RBA Governor, is on record saying they will stay low for years. Some suggest they may even drop as low as 1% but will anything change on Tuesday 6th?
There are some striking similarities between the British and Australian economies at the moment. If you look at them in a certain light, it seems as though they’re doing well. But when you take a closer look, stagnant wages, rising household debt and problems in the housing market make the wider economy seem more like it’s ready to topple at any moment, according to some analysts.
While debt levels remain rather high and wages low, the Bank will remain cautious about making changes that could trigger rising inflation. Traders are likely to be very interested in the Rate Statement (3.30am GMT Tuesday 6th February). Here, the Bank rate committee’s reasons for their decision should reveal where the bank thinks the economy will go next and that could send AUD on a bumpy ride.
Hop over to trade the New Zealand dollar (Wednesday 7th 8pm GMT) for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement and Press Conference. Unchanged since November 2016, there is little sign things will shift this month either. Some radical analysts, such as Eurasia Group in New York, forecast a global crash this year and suggest the NZD will be one of the hardest hit if that happens, but others say all the data received before Christmas points to a reasonably healthy economy. Whatever happens, the Press Conference is likely to give NZD traders some action.
CAD: can employment highs stick around?
Canada is one of many major economies with unemployment figures that haven’t been this good for decades. But that might all be about to change.
December’s 62% employment rate was creeping towards the record high of 2008 (63.70%). It stands far above the average from 1976 to 2017 of 60.29%. Many would say this shows strength in the economy. However, analysts forecast that figures for Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will show a drop of around 2k for in employment and a rise in the Unemployment Rate of 0.1% (Friday 9th 1.30pm GMT) . Not great news for the Loonie, especially when the NAFTA discussions look set to drag on and Trudeau’s policies are being criticised for their effect on the competitiveness of Canada’s economy.
If you’re planning to trade CAD this week, also watch Crude Oil Inventories closely (3.30pm GMT Wednesday 7th) and plan your strategy around the employment data out on Friday. Have fun!
GBP: confusing times for a bank rate announcement
The Bank of England Inflation Report will focus attention (Thursday 8th February 12 noon). Many pundits will hope to see a further reduction in inflation to justify last year’s 0.5% rate set in November. But recent UK factory PMI data suggests the opposite might happen and inflation could rise again. What on earth is going on?
The British economy is suffering an odd mix of rising inflation, rising household debt, depressed wages and low unemployment. If you were to consult an economics textbook, many experts would say this doesn’t happen and it’s certainly scuttled the government’s economic forecasts. Unless wages rise to combat debt, received wisdom says the Bank can’t consider increasing interest rates. But with inflation still standing above target at 3% in December, something needs to happen. There seems to be no good way to jump for Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman. We are definitely getting out the popcorn for this one.
This week also brings the latest MPC Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate (Thursday 8th February 12 noon). There is a small chance of a surprise rate rise but this could spell disaster for UK workers. Some might say “I told you so” but that wouldn’t be helpful. Mark Carney has a tightrope to walk this week. Will he manage it?
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Mon Feb 05
16:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- Tue Feb 06
00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
03:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Rate Statement
03:30:00 GMT AUD Cash Rate
21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
- Wed Feb 07
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
20:00:00 GMT NZD Official Cash Rate
20:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
20:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
1:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Press Conference
- Thu Feb 08
00:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
09:00:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
- Fri Feb 09
09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
00:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
13:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
13:30:00 GMT CAD Unemployment Rate
Some Markets to Watch…
Bitcoin: The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has depreciated by 12 percent in the last 24 hours, according to data source CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has traded at new 2018 lows today. There may be more pain in store for crypto bulls or it could confound the greatest amount of participants and begin to climb again. The chart below highlights some possible areas of interest for traders.
Gold: The recent highs of 1375 still look achievable but it would be healthy for a market which has moved like this to retrace somewhat. The half way back near previous supply and the round number might be an interesting level to watch.
WTI Crude: Its all about the $65 level on this market. We are trading near some key chart structure at this level. As with Gold, it would be reasonable to think a market which has moved as impulsively as this one has would see some sort of retrace to remain healthy. The $54/$55 zone with the half way back and chart structure may be an interesting level to watch should we see some sort of move down.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.
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