2 major Central Bank speeches (USD, GBP)

Banging parrot

The week ends with a bang as Bank of England Mark Carney addresses an international climate risk conference in Amsterdam (4.15pm GMT Friday 6th). The clamour for a rate rise in the UK is growing but the mixed forecast has Bank representatives sitting on the fence. GBP traders could change their positions as the week closes if Carney drops any hints in the speech.

Federal Reserve newcomer Jermone Powell gives a speech and answers questions at the Economic Club of Chicago (Friday 6th 6.30pm GMT). If his comments look hawkish that is usually seen as good for the currency. It’s a busy week for USD traders so this could see them planning their action for Monday rather than any big changes as the week closes for trading on Friday.

Interest rates have such a crucial effect on currency value expect fluctuations around both events and enjoy your Friday afternoon trades.

GBP: Bank Rate Thursday

HMS GBP in the markets this week

Mark Carney, Chair of the Bank of England, has his moment in the sun on Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT as the Official Bank Rate is revealed. Pundits have priced a rise in for May, but there are mutterings of an early rise that could shake a few foundations. Nothing is off the cards this week.

The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT)  has held steady at 0-0-9 since the rise in November, but many expect to see that change as some voices express concerns about the health of the economy. The question is how many want a rise and how many think that would be a disaster. The Policy Summary, also Thursday at 12pm GMT, should give traders a good view of the Bank’s view of the economy.

Before they cast their votes, the CPI and PPI monthly data should give the Monetary Policy Committee more to think about on Tuesday 20th 9.30am GMT. CPI has been rising above inflation targets at 3% or more since September 2017, while PPI is volatile making forecasts difficult. The Average Earnings Index is another one to chuck in the mix on Wednesday 21st at 9.30am GMT. Finally climbing to more than 2% last August, the current 2.5% could jump again depending on who you talk to.

With more multinationals shifting operations to the continents and the ‘subsidiary’ offices in Frankfurt, Rotterdam and elsewhere taking shape, London’s status looks set to take a battering. Will a rate rise depress the currency like the iceberg for Titanic, or could the domestic boost be the life raft the sinking ship has been floundering for?

 

GBP: Budget time, or is it?

When things aren’t what you expect

When is a Budget not a Budget? When it’s a Spring Statement. The British Chancellor’s attempts to wriggle out of producing two budgets a year, appears to have ended up in a rebranding exercise. The Spring Statement, delivered on Tuesday 13th at 11.30am GMT, is sure to be catch traders’ attention whatever it’s called.

What a government chooses to spend its tax money on (or not) can make or break an economy. With the clock ticking over Brexit, this is the last Spring Statement for the country before the big day in March 2019. We get to see what Philip Hammond reckons is in store for the U.K. economy in terms of income and expenditure. He will outline his plans, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments.

Last year’s Spring Statement was a shambles with unpopular announcements overturned rapidly. Can he do any better this year, and how will the markets take it?

Top Tiql Tips: 6th to 9th March

Sharing tips like buddies do

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are our predictions for data that could make trading news this week:​

4 Bank Rates to Rock the Week

If you like the roller coaster ride when banks make interest rate decisions, you’ve got a good week ahead with 4 major rates being set.

First to go is the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing its new Cash Rate (Tuesday 6th March 3.30am GMT). The Rate Statement, out at the same time, could have a few hidden gems but the 1.50% rate looks likely to stay the same.
The Bank of Canada releases its new Overnight Rate next (Wednesday 7th 3pm GMT). With the recent rise in January, not many expect any change so the accompanying Rate Statement will be where it’s at. Listen out for news on NAFTA – news about the trade agreement is having a noticeable effect on CAD at the moment.

Contending with the fallout from the Italian elections as populist parties gained strength, all EUR trading eyes switched to the ECB this week. The European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 8th 12.45pm GMT) has stood at 0.00% since March 2016. A majority of opinion holds that it won’t change this month either. The Eurozone economy was looking strong at the start of the year but experienced some bumps in the PMIs last month. This month Trump’s tariff threats add little positive to the mix so keeping things stable is high on the agenda.

Japan closes the week for bank rates when the Bank of Japan shares its latest Policy Rate (Friday 9th March time to be confirmed). Held at -0.1% since September 2016 there have been murmurs about a change of position. The Policy Statement and Press Conference should be good for positions into the weekend.

AUD: 7 essential data traders need to know

It’s a busy week for AUD traders with a plethora of data to digest. Here are the 7 essential data traders need to manage if they’re serious about their Aussie dollar action.

The biggest news of the week is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). The 1.50% rate has stood for 19 consecutive months and few people expect RBA Governor Lowe to break that status quo. Futures markets don’t see any rise this year, not even a teeny little 0.25% one. That makes things interesting when the general economy appears to be doing well but data suggests the Aussie consumer is heavily debt-laden.

The Rate Statement, out just after the Cash Rate, will have traders analysing every word for clues to the direction of future rate changes. RBA’s Governor, Rob Lowe, has a difficult path to navigate.

Not as significant as the Cash Rate, the Australian Current Account is actually the first major AUD event of the week (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). It should set the tone for traders. With the deficit set to grow from -9.1B to -12.3B, it doesn’t look like a cause for celebration.

Retail Sales (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT) adds more curious detail to the complex Australian picture with predictions of a swing to growth from -0.5% to 0.4%. Closely correlated to the domestic economy this is either a positive sign of a a strengthening economy or another nail in the debt coffin of the average citizen.

RBA Governor Lowe will address the issue of the Changing Nature of Investment in Sydney, Australia (9.35pm GMT Wednesday 7th March). Coming so soon after the new Cash Rate traders will be looking for indications of what Lowe plans to do next.

GDP (Wednesday 7th 12.30am GMT) had expectations of growth downgraded to 0.5% from 0.6%. That would be the second shrinkage in a row and way off the 1.1% seen a year ago.

The Aussie Trade Balance is the final major data of the AUD week (Thursday 8th 12.30am GMT). Forecasts suggest a swing from -1.36B to 0.22B in the black. With a weak AUDUSD pairing this could change a few minds to a positive outlook for the Australian dollar.

Plenty of events this week should give Tiql’s AUD traders lots of action and could see widely differing opinions of the currency emerge.

USD: vital job figures (but not for farmers) and other key data

Are you excited? We’re excited. What a trading week we’ve got this week for USD and the cream of the crop is Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 9th March 1.30pm GMT).

Recent months have seen employment levels go against predictions more times than Trump’s tweets have upset world leaders, so buckle up for a fun market ride this week. Standing at 200k pundits expect a rise to 204k. The domestic economy is the biggest influence on the dollar so finding out whether John Doe has a job matters.

Also big on the dollar calendar this week is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 3pm GMT) with a healthy 59.9 predicted to drop to 58.9. That’s still way above the 50 threshold between positive and negative outlooks.

And don’t forget your midweek oil news with Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 7th 3.30pm GMT). OPEC may be mostly sticking to its agreement to make cuts to shore up oil prices, but the US is having none of it. Last week saw an increase of 3.0M when analysts only forecast 2.4M and previous weeks have been in the black since mid-January apart from one minor blip two weeks back.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

    • Tue Mar 06
      • 18:15:00 GMT GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
      • 21:35:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
    • Wed Mar 07
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD GDP q/q
      • 13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
    • Thu Mar 08
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
      • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
      • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
      • 16:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
      • 20:35:00 GMT CAD Gov Council Member Lane Sp
    • Fri Mar 09
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
      • 06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
      • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin is pressured down as the market struggles to find fresh bullish catalysts to push it higher. We are currently trading within last week’s range. The key levels to watch are 12000 and 9000 as we go into the week.


USDJPY: We are still trading below a key zone and there is some clear trading space to 101. For now, this looks bullish on daily closes above 108 and bearish below 106. 101 remains a key area of interest for the bears.


Crude: Still in the range for now. Certainly a deeper correction is within reason. Right now the lines in the sand to watch are $61 and $64.


GBPUSD: The chart below says it all. We are trading at a key level here as you can see.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Top Tiql Tips: 27th Feb to 4th March

Tiql tips being delivered

Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: Time to talk Brexit

Cable’s set for some disruption (Friday 2nd March 9am GMT) if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead. Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will set out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. The local press indicate a distinct lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.

Sterling and Bitcoin traders will also pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference (Friday 2nd March 10am). Should be interesting.

Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st March 9.30am) looks reasonably healthy at 55.3 although this is under forecasts and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am) on the other hand reflects an industry under the cosh. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the borderline between positive and negative outlooks. Some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, though headlines indicate falling London prices and empty properties suggesting this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?

USD: markets holding their breath till Powell testifies

New Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in the hot seat for his first major speech to the US government this week when he delivers his first testimony to Congress (Tuesday 27th at 1.30pm GMT). Markets across the world are treading water as they wait to hear what the pearls of wisdom he will share.

Jerome Powell, former investment banker and Trump’s preferred choice, will read a prepared statement and then take questions from the House Financial Services Committee. It’s the second part that could cause most turbulence as any unexpected answers will have the power to affect markets and currencies across the globe. Scoop, the New Zealand news site, reports NZD meeting a barrier at 73c at the start of the week while they wait for this speech. Other currencies are also likely to be affected.

Powell speaks again (Thursday 1st March 3pm GMT) when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. It might be a good idea to grab a copy from the Fed’s website when it becomes available as soon as he starts speaking. You could make a sharp move if you spot something. It’s a definite opportunity but no-one knows which way things will go.

Just like his session with the House Committee on Tuesday, Powell will take questions after he finishes reading. Both sessions are in response to the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, which was released last Friday.

Other important events likely to affect the dollar this week include Core Durable Goods (Tuesday 27th 1.30pm GMT), CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 27th 3pm GMT), Preliminary GDP (Wednesday 28th 1.30pm GMT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 28th 3.30pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm GMT).

AUD & NZD: volatile times down under

Watch out for volatility as antipodean currencies react to Powell’s first major speeches in post as the US Federal Reserve Bank Chair. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar have ‘interesting’ relationships with other currencies, especially sterling, USD and the Chinese yuan.

Also this week, the Kiwi dollar faces the likelihood of another pessimistic ANZ Business Confidence score (Wednesday 28th February 12am GMT). Hitting 0.0 back in September after a lengthy period of positivity, traders haven’t had an update since December as there is no data released in January. They will be keen to learn if the main industrial drivers of agriculture, manufacturing, retail, construction and services see a dim or bright future in 2018.

Business also takes centre stage in the Aussie economy as Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1st March 12.30am GMT) delivers a snapshot of economic health. Looking at the change in total inflation adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses, this data is a leading indicator of the health of the economy as increased business spending is seen to drive employment and growth. If it drops, jobs are likely to go and vice versa. Standing at 1.0% it’s predicted to rise to 1.1% supporting the view of business leaders that 2018 will be a boom year. Let’s see if they’re right.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Feb 27
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • Wed Feb 28
    • 00:00:00 GMT NZD ANZ Business Confidence
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Prelim GDP q/q
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Mar 01
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
    • 15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Fri Mar 02
    • 09:00:00 GMT GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    • 10:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    • 13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
  • Sun Mar 04
    • 09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: BTCUSD broke back above 10,000 before hitting supply near the $12,000. It’s currently trading near $10,700. The key levels to watch are at $9000 and $12000 as we go into the week.

Crude Oil: Oil has confounded the bears, at least temporarily, by climbing the page. The chart below shows the bull bear lines which are of interest.


S&P Futures: The S&P broke out from a multi-day consolidation and is presently trading above 2750. The chart below shows the supply and demand zones which may be of interest to traders.


USDJPY: All eyes on the 107 to 108 zone. We are trading near some significant chart structure. More pressure on the dollar and we might expect some further downside on this FX pair.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

GBP: Brexit, brexit, brexit

Time to talk Brexit

Cable’s set for some disruption on Friday 2nd March if the proposed speech by Prime Minister May goes ahead (time to be confirmed). Already the biggest news in the UK this week, May will be setting out her vision for the post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union. Rumbles in the press indicate a wide lack of unity within the British government and early responses from European leaders to rumours of her plan are dismissive at best. This could be very, very bad for the pound.

Sterling and Bitcoin traders are also likely to pay attention when the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks about cryptocurrencies and the evolution of money at the Scottish Economics Conference, Friday 2nd March 10am.

Finally, the monthly purchase manager indexes are out this week. The Manufacturing PMI, out on Thursday 1st March at 9.30am, looks quite healthy at 55.3 although this is lower than forecast and significantly below the recent 58.2 peak in December. The Construction PMI, Friday 2nd 9.30am, on the other hand reflects an industry under siege. Last month it dropped against expectations to 50.2, dangerously close to the 50 borderline between positive and negative outlook. Though some pundits forecast a small rise in confidence to 50.5 this month, newspaper headlines around falling London prices and empty properties suggest this may be rather optimistic. Could we see a sub 50 value for the first time in nearly 6 months?

Top Tiql Tips: 19th to 25th February

Tiql tips time!

We’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch to help you to earn more with TIQL this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: kicks off early and peaks midweek

Traders are keen to know what will happen with the Bank of England’s interest rates. Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman, offers an exciting chance to kick the week off with some volatility on the pound when he talks about leadership and values in London (Monday 19th 6.45pm GMT).

Wages have been stagnating so Carney will be hoping for good news from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 21st 9.30am). Rising below inflation at 2.5% for the last few months, they haven’t helped paint a positive picture of the wider domestic economy.

The mid-week hump peaks with the big red flag, Inflation Report Hearings (2.15pm GMT Wednesday 21st February). Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee testify at the Treasury with comments expected about the currency markets. Lasting a few hours this can almost guarantee turbulence.

Sterling’s last big gasp of the week is the quarterly Second Estimate GDP (Thursday at 9.30am GMT). Rising more than expected to 0.5% analysts expect that to stabilise with no change forecast.

USD: Yellen’s last stand at the FOMC

Yellen is out. Powell is in. It’s regime change time. But is that boat getting rocked one last time by the ex-most powerful woman in the US economy?

Get the tissues ready to hear her final remarks in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for January (Wednesday 21st February 7.00pm GMT). We don’t expect her to hold back. Everyone and his donkey want to know where the Fed’s interest rate is going next and when. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes give all the juicy details and we want them hot off the press.

Incoming Chair, Jerome Powell, has stressed continuity. He caused a few chuckles with remarks that the Fed works for the “good of all Americans” recently. Some applaud his apparently strong free markets stance but the question remains whether organisations and markets will actually be allowed to fail should things go wrong. Check out Powell’s upcoming speeches to see where the future lies.

CAD & NZD: retail sales

New Zealand’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are forecast to uptick with 1.4% growth. Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are also expected to be stronger at 0.7% growth.

If pundits are correct, this makes the domestic economy look better than some would have hoped. Though every trader knows forecasts can be wrong. Last week’s US Core Retail Sales stagnated at 0.0% rather than the healthier 0.5% growth expected while there was a wince-inducing contraction of -0.2% in the wider Retail Sales. Now there’s an economy that’s suddenly not looking as bright as expected.

Canada’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd February 1.30pm GMT) boosted their economy last month by coming in at twice the forecast with 1.6% growth against the 0.8% predicted. They are cautiously optimistic about wider economic growth and this could be a strengthening economy.
Where Canada is concerned, always remember to track Crude Oil Inventories (Thursday 22nd February 4pm GMT) for its impact on the Loonie. Currently back in the positive after months of reductions, are we seeing a new trend in oil production?

EUR: no weekend off

The European Parliamentary Elections are on Sunday 25th. Expect EUR related markets to pay attention and watch out for possible corrections when markets open on Monday if there are any political upsets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

 

  • Mon Feb 19
    18:45:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Tue Feb 20
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Wed Feb 21
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    14:15:00 GMT GBP Inflation Report Hearings
    19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thu Feb 22
    16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Retail Sales q/q
  • Fri Feb 23
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
  • Sun Feb 25
    09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen broke through significant support and has been trading in a narrow range within last week’s range. The dollar hit a 3-year low against the Yen last week despite surging U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in global equity markets. The move may have been fueled by inflation concerns in the U.S. as well as worries about the huge U.S. current and budget deficits.

 

Bitcoin: BTCUSD is trading above the key $10000 round number. Key levels to watch this week are 12000 (completion of equidistant swing into previous supply/demand) and the 10,000 level.

 

Crude Oil: The chart we looked at last week is still in play. We have a potential ABCD pattern which could complete near the halfway back and previous chart structure at $54.

 


GBPUSD: The bulls still have the ball on cable. We found buyers at 1.38 last week and all eyes are on the 1.40 level to see if we can push higher. 1.45 could be a good target for the bulls to cover.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

 

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

GBP: kicks off early but peaks midweek

Excited traders

Traders are itching to know what will happen with the Bank of England’s interest rates. Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman, offers a prime opportunity to kick the week off with some volatility on the pound when he talks about leadership and values in London (Monday 19th 6.45pm GMT).

With wages stagnating, Carney will be hoping for good news from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 21st 9.30am). Rising below inflation at 2.5% for the last few months, they haven’t helped paint a positive picture of the wider domestic economy.

The mid-week hump continues with the big red flag Inflation Report Hearings at 2.15pm GMT on Wednesday 21st February. Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee testify at the Treasury with comments expected about the currency markets. Lasting a few hours this can almost guarantee turbulence.

Sterling’s last big gasp of the week comes on Thursday 22nd February at 9.30am GMT with the quarterly Second Estimate GDP. Rising more than expected to 0.5% analysts expect that to stabilise with no change forecast.

Top Tiql Tips (with love): 12th to 16th February

​​​​​Your free guide to the markets this Valentine’s Week!

That’s our kind of girl

To help you to earn more with TIQL, because we think you’re great, we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

USD: key events this week
This week there are loads of of major events for USD traders to play this week.

Firstly, CPI and Core CPI as well as Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (14th February 1.30pm GMT). If they are strong, most pundits expect markets to rise. Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 14th 3.30pm GMT) is less directly related to the consumer market, but it also impacts USD. The Producer Price Index (Thursday 15th 1.30pm GMT) shrank by -0.1% last month. This will reflect data gathered before the crashes and temporary government shutdown at the end of last week so traders may not place too much weight on it. Then Building Permits (Friday 16th 1.30pm GMT) will be USD traders last planned big play before the week ends.

But, remember, we always have Trump’s tweets and speeches to add some turbulence to the week, and some much needed laughs. Last week’s midweek shock crashes led to an old irate tweet about the markets coming back to bite Trump. Back in 2015, he thought the sitting US president should be fired into the sun in a cannon if Wall Street dropped by more than 1,000 points in a day. Then it happened twice in one week on his watch. He went uncharacteristically quiet with no tweets for what must be a record amount of time on the Trump-feed. We’re guessing that means he won’t be heading into the sun any time soon. But with two massive crashes in a row, shouldn’t that be two canon rides then? Or would twice mean a ride there and one back? Is that why he’s still president? Has Trump been to the sun?

The big question traders want to know this week is when the Dow and S&P 500 will turn around or if there is further to fall. They also want to know why the fall happened when the US economy looks reasonably strong at the moment. Everyone and their dog has a theory but we may never know. Jittery traders who don’t trust a good thing seems to cover it. Even Trump got it right about that.

AUD: brace for impact
The Australian dollar has a tendency to be buffeted by other markets. The Wall Street double dipper led to a 6-week low against the dollar and volatility could well remain across this week.

AUD traders also face additional impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate news (over 1% drop against sterling), but AUD could regain some strength with Employment Change news and the Unemployment Rate (Thursday 15th February 12.30am GMT).

The highlight of the week will be Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Rob Lowe speaking to the House of Representatives Economics Committee (Thursday 15th 10.30pm GMT). Their questions could shed light on the Bank’s latest view of the economy and future plans for interest rates.

GBP: an economy under pressure
Last week’s reveal of a potential interest rate rise from Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, and the news that it could be larger than previously thought will probably worry large parts of the country’s debt-laden population, though markets reacted positively.

Analysts wanted someone, anyone, to do something to keep a lid on inflation so they took the rate rise news well. Although others are confused. The upwards pressure doesn’t seem to be coming from the domestic market making it difficult to see how Carney’s measures are going to do anything other than fan the flames for a debt-laden cash-strapped underpaid workforce.

The Consumer Price Index (Tuesday 13th February 9.30am GMT) fell to 3.0% last month from a high of 3.1% in December. If it drops further, the arguments for a rate rise get thinner. Retail Sales (9.30am GMT Friday 16th) will help a lot of traders decide how far and fast they think the Governor is going to jump. The next chance for rates to change will be on 22nd March though many have put their money on May’s Rate Statement for the next hike.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Feb 13
    09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
  • Wed Feb 14
    02:00:00 GMT NZD Inflation Expectations q/q
    13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Feb 15
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    21:30:00 GMT NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
    22:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Fri Feb 16
    13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen is trading at a key support zone at 107 – 108 after making a low of 108.03 on Friday. The US government fiscal balance is due to be reported later on Monday with no other important data due. The near term levels to watch are 108 and 109.

GBPUSD: Cable seems poised to continue its bull run. The UK has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase. The chart below shows the levels to watch as we go into the trading week.

BTCUSD: Bitcoin levels rose this past week. Bitcoin recovered more than 48% from the multi-month lows touched at $5,896.00 last week. The long-awaited break above $8,500 failed to produce meaningful recovery as the selling interest around $9,000 resistance pushed it back.

Crude Oil: Oil prices have gained some ground today after the drop last week. The chart below shows some of the levels to watch going into the trading week. The key zone to watch is near $55, which is near the half way back and has previous supply and demand nearby. We also have the equidistant swing completing into $53: should we see a deeper correction this might be an interesting level to watch.

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AUD: brace for impact


A journo who knows how AUD feels sometimes

The Aussie dollar has a tendency to be buffeted by other markets. The Wall Street double crash led to a 6-week low against the dollar last week and volatility could remain across this week.

Reeling from the additional impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate news (over 1% drop against sterling), AUD could regain some strength with Employment Change news and the Unemployment Rate on Thursday 15th February at 12.30am GMT.

The highlight of the week will be Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Rob Lowe speaking to the House of Representatives Economics Committee (Thursday 15th 10.30pm GMT). Committee members questions could reveal news on the Bank’s view of the economy and future plans for interest rates.