Top Tiql Tips: 12th to 15th Dec 2017

On the 12th day of Christmas

With only a few weeks until the end of the year, we’ve giving you this free guide to help you to earn more with TIQL. Covering the markets and dates to watch this week, economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: FOMC December Rate Hike
The vast majority of USD traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% (Wednesday 13th 7pm GMT) so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are also other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference (13th 7.30pm) should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Global: Libor Bank Rate
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set (Thursday 14th 8.30am GMT) and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

GBP: BoE base rate
This week we’re all about the rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. The Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%) only hours after Libor (Thursday 14th 12pm GMT), so expect volatility for the duration. The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

45 minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 14th 12.45pm GMT), which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 12
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    • 19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    • 22:15:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Wed Dec 13
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    • 19:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
  • Thu Dec 14
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    • 17:25:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: Although this pair is looking heavy, the Aussie is at a key technical level with previous demand, the half way back is nearby and an ascending trend line. The 0.75 price is a key level to watch. Keep an eye on any moves on the commodities such as gold, which will impact this FX pair.

BTCUSD: After an eye-watering retracement last week where we saw $13000 tested, it looks like bitcoin may try and test the all-time highs once again.

EURUSD: Pundits have been calling the end of Euro for some time but this pair remains in the range for now. We are watching the edges of the consolidation for the market to tip its hand.

Gold: Have we broken down or are we just running the stops at these lows? Daily closes under 1250 and we could see a deeper move down. Closes above 1260 and the bulls may try for some of the higher numbers.

USDJPY: We remain within the yearly range for now. The main levels to watch are 110.50 and 114.50 to see if these are defended as they have been before.

USDCAD: The lows held last week after that very bearish daily candle. It looks like the highs may be tested and we have the equidistant swing completing into the 200 SMA.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Final 2017 hike for FOMC?

Which way will rates go?

The vast majority of US traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% on Wednesday 13th at 7pm GMT so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference at 7.30pm GMT should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Top Tiql Tips: 20th to 24th November

Black Friday is cheap but this guide is free x

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Yellen, Wednesday and Thanksgiving
There’s a midweek peak for the dollar this week as the US traders looks forward to two days of downtime (November 23rd and 24th) when they give thanks for buoyant markets and mindless consumerism aka Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Kicking off the midweek action Fed Chair Yellen is part of a panel discussion with Mervyn King, the ex-governor of the Bank of England (Tuesday 21st 11pm GMT). While there is still the risk of one more rate rise in December, traders will analyse her comments closely for any clues.

Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 22nd November 3.30pm GMT) is likely to lead to volatility mid-week, while the FOMC Meeting Minutes could change traders attitudes (22nd 7pm GMT) before they shut up shop for Thanksgiving. Earlier in the day, Core Durable Goods monthly change (22nd 1.30pm GMT) is expected to grow by 0.4%, more subdued than last month’s unexpectedly positive 0.7%, and fresh Unemployment Claims (22nd 1.30pm GMT) look set to fall slightly, making every US trader feel better.

Central banks: AUD, EUR and USD
Three major currencies will be affected by news from their central banks this week.

First up is the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA affecting AUD (Tuesday 21st 12.30am GMT). The economy seems to be moving into a steadier phase so traders will be looking for signs of impending interest rate changes. This will feed into a red flag AUD speech later the same day when the RBA main man, Lowe, gives a dinner speech (21st 9.05am GMT).

The US FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 22nd 7pm GMT) will keep traders at their desks right until closing time the day before Thanksgiving. A big question hangs over the chance of a final rate rise in December 2017.

Finally, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (Thursday 23rd 12.30pm GMT). This is only an orange event at the moment but the rocky political situation facing Merkel in Germany could increase interest and uncertainty in EUR markets.

GBP: 3 major events 1 currency
If you like a volatile market, you’ve probably enjoyed GBP since Brexit. This week three major events could rock the boat further.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and other members of the MPC testify to Parliament on inflation (Tuesday 21st 10am GMT) at the Inflation Report Hearings. They are likely to include comments on the currency markets as well as give insights into future rate change possibilities. Setting the mood for this will be the release of Public Sector Borrowing (21st 9.30am GMT). Forecasts suggest a major increase in borrowing putting pressure on the Treasury.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer delivers his Autumn Forecast Statement (Wednesday 22nd 12.30pm) giving a good insight into the underlying fiscal strength of the UK. He is widely expected to announce measures around increased house building and incentives for businesses in the face of separation from the European single market. Many details will have been leaked to the press beforehand and priced in, but surprises are known to happen from time to time.

The Second Estimate GDP quarterly figures are due out (Thursday 23rd 9.30am) and forecasts suggest no change at 0.4% but this key data will be closely watched by markets, especially with the US markets quiet due to Thanksgiving today.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Mon Nov 20
14:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
16:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

Tue Nov 21
00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
09:05:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
10:00:00 GMT GBP Inflation Report Hearings
23:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Wed Nov 22
12:30:00 GMT GBP Autumn Forecast Statement
13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
21:45:00 GMT NZD Retail Sales q/q

Thu Nov
09:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin continues its move upwards (punctuated with some heady retraces back) and is now trading above $8000. This break to new highs follows on from the drop to below $5700 on the 12th of November. Which way now for Bitcoin?

GBPUSD: We remain in the chop zone on this pair for now, albeit still supported somewhat. The 1.33 is a key level to watch.

Crude Oil: The $55 level has held and for now we are in a congestion zone. The key levels to watch are $55 and $58.50 as we go into the week. This could be a tricky market to trade with the news coming out of the Middle East.

EURUSD: This pair tested some supply last week before selling off. For now, we are caught in the price move made over the last two weeks. A clear break and a daily close above last weeks highs may attract some buyers to test the highs made over the summer trading. A rotation down and we might see 1.16 tested again.

Gold: Gold has been supported by the 200 SMA as buyers came in there and at previous demand. A break above 1300 might see Gold’s rotation higher and the channel continue.

USDCAD: This pair is trading near a previous intermediate high and traders have not tipped their hand yet. Any breaks and closes above last week’s highs and the buyer might push this on to clear the end of October highs and the 200 SMA. Closes below 1.2650 might see a deeper correction if the bears can run with it.

USDJPY: The supply level at the highs has held and the Yen is testing the key 112 level. This is near last week’s highs, previous demand and the 200 SMA; any breaks here and we might see this pair retrace further quickly.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

3 big banking events

2 days off

Three major currencies will be affected by news from their central banks this week.

First up is the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA affecting AUD on Tuesday 21st at 12.30am GMT. The economy seems to be moving into a steadier phase so traders will be looking for signs of impending interest rate changes. This will feed into a red flag AUD speech later the same day when the RBA main man, Lowe, gives a dinner speech at 9.05am GMT.

The US FOMC Meeting Minutes are out on Wednesday 22nd at 7pm GMT keeping traders at their desks right until closing time the day before Thanksgiving. A big question hangs over the chance of a final rate rise in December 2017.

Finally, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday 23rd at 12.30pm GMT. This is only an orange event at the moment but the rocky political situation facing Merkel in Germany could increase interest and uncertainty in EUR markets.

Midweek USD peak

&

Thanksgiving Macy’s Parade

There’s a midweek peak for the dollar this week as the US traders looks forward to two days of downtime on Thursday and Friday when they give thanks for buoyant markets and mindless consumerism aka Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Kicking off the midweek action on Tuesday 21st Yellen is part of a panel discussion with Mervyn King (ex-governor of the Bank of England) at 11pm GMT. While there is still the risk of one more rate rise in December, traders will analyse her comments closely for any clues.

Wednesday 22nd November is likely to see the most action on the USD markets this week. Crude Oil Inventories at 3.30pm GMT is likely to lead to volatility in these uncertain times, while the FOMC Meeting Minutes could change traders attitudes at 7pm GMT before they shut up shop for Thanksgiving. Earlier in the day, Core Durable Goods monthly change at 1.30pm GMT is expected to grow by 0.4%, more subdued than last month’s unexpectedly positive 0.7%, and fresh Unemployment Claims, also 1.30pm GMT, look set to fall slightly, making every US trader feel better.

Top Tiql Tips 30th Oct to 3rd Nov

Too exciting

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week just for you. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. And this week there’s plenty of action!

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Non-Farm on 3rd
A new month means Non-Farm Employment Change (12.30pm GMT Friday 3rd November). Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States, and this month’s release looks extra interesting.

We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative against a substantial predicted increase (82k). Yet analysts are forecasting an even more meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed. They reckon a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

USD: FOMC rate decision
November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise (6pm GMT Wednesday 1st). Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high. The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong, but of course, not everyone agrees.

The other news due from the Fed will be huge. The clock is ticking and everybody wants to know who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

GBP: rates and speeches
Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button (12pm GMT Thursday 2nd) and opinion is divided about whether he should. The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting.

There is a large amount of key BoE trading data on Thursday – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced.

Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. But no matter what he says, the Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding (12.30pm GMT Thursday 2nd) should lead to some volatile action on the markets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Oct 31
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    19:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
  • Wed Nov 01
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    20:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • Thu Nov 02
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
    12:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Fri Nov 03
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: We’ve begun the trading week by trading back above the 6000 and making new highs; completing the ABCD pattern we have been watching. Where next for Bitcoin? All eyes will be on $6000 to see if we hold going into the week. If BTCUSD is looking a bit rich for you, we have just added Ethereum and Litecoin for you to trade!

USDJPY: Traders are excited about this pair as we once again retest resistance at 114.50. This level is the line in the sand for traders and the risk events this week from Japan and the USA should move this cross one way or the other.

EURUSD: Towards the end of last week this pair traded outside of the chop zone formed over the last few months. The weekly chart shows some of the key levels that traders may be watching. A daily close below the 1.16 may entice the sellers to push this lower to the next support level of 1.13 and a retest of the descending trend line. A move back up and we might see more rotation on this pair.

Copper: This metal has failed at a retest of the highs and previous chart structure. Might we see a deeper correction if we can’t take out the highs? Next support zone near 2.8950.

Gold: We traded close to the October lows on Friday and we are currently trading above the key 1260 level and the 61.8 Fibonacci. Will the buyers hold the channel? 1260 is key for the long and short thesis on this market.

Crude Oil: Friday saw this market pop to the $54 zone. We are at an interesting level here with the completion of the ABCD pattern, the 50% extension and previous supply at around $55. The old highs look vulnerable for now and we could imagine the longs covering their positions on any weakness at these highs. The $52/$53 zone might attract some more buyers if they are going to make another run at the highs.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Hump Day fun with USD

Watching the Fed

November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise at 6pm GMT on Wednesday 1st. Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high.

The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong. The other big news to come out of the Fed will be who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

Tiql Tips: 9th to 13th Oct

High five!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Bank Holiday Monday: who gets one?
Columbus Day anyone? Well, yes, if you’re in the US it is and that means no trading. Other lucky people enjoying days off include the Canadians with Thanksgiving and Japan with Sports Day.

FOMC: December rate rise?
The FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday 11th 6pm GMT) should shed light on the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but surprisingly low inflation has put a spanner in the works. Higher employment and a healthy economy usually means inflation but it’s not hitting targets so the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious. But there are many voices who would like to see a complete change of policy fearing that any rate rises at all could stifle growth.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. This month, CPI (Friday 13th 12.30pm GMT) is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures (Thursday 12th 12.30pm GMT) to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

GBP: a troubled currency
The British currency has taken a pounding since Brexit and it looks like things are sliding further.

Political uncertainty looms as Prime Minister May’s future is in question. She suffered an excrutiating party conference plus Brexit negotiations are painfully slow with both sides starting to become entrenched in opposition making the likelihood of an agreement being reached before the 2019 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Bad relations and no trade deal with their closest and largest trading partner could be around the corner for the UK. This would mean rising trade costs in the midterm future. The rats are deserting the ship as a growing number of international banks are renting increasing amounts of office space in Frankfurt. It looks like the City of London party is coming to an end.To finish things off, ratings agency, Standards & Poor, are questioning the country’s ability to withstand an interest rate increase.

Mark Carney, the Canadian Bank of England Chair, would be wise to check his passport is up-to-date if Manufacturing Production monthly change (Tuesday 10th 8.30am GMT) comes in under par. Last month showed a healthy 0.5% increase against the 0.3% predicted and everyone will be hoping that is the start of a positive trend. The Goods Trade Balance (Tuesday 8.30am GMT) and BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday 12th 8.30am GMT) should both make for interesting reading. Supporters of a rate rise will be looking for another drop in the Goods Trade Balance, currently -11.6B, while the markets see rising debt levels as signs of confidence in consumer and business spending. It’s unclear why they don’t see it as a sign of desperate attempts to stay afloat but that’s an economics lesson for another day.

Oil: a storm brewing
Has the tide turned for oil? After hitting well above $50 a barrel at the end of September, prices dropped down near to $49 as some analysts said they were concerned the price has risen too far, too fast.

Adding to depreciatory fears, Tropical Storm Nate led to shutdowns in the US Gulf oil production region as they head into the traditional maintenance period. On top of that, some of the main US shale producers are set for record outputs this month and, worryingly, US crude stockpiles are currently more than 70 million barrels over their 5-year average adding further downward pressure on prices. Traders will pay close attention when the latest weekly Crude Oil Inventories data is revealed (Thursday 12th 3pm GMT). Any increase could be taken rather badly.

But that’s not all. Adding more fuel to the fire, Libya’s just opened up oil fields that have been shut for a long time while OPEC’s main producers like Saudi Arabia have all upped their output despite renewing their agreement to keep a lid on production.

It looks like it could be a race to the bottom for oil this week and many investors will be thinking about cashing in before prices sink too far. The question is who would buy in this climate?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 10th October
    08:30:00 GMT 2017 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
  • Wednesday 11th October
    18:00:00 GMT 2017 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday 12th October
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD PPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
    14:30:00 GMT 2017 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    15:00:00 GMT 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • ​Friday 13th October
    ​12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

S&P 500 and Dow: The US indices continue to grind higher on low volatility. The charts below show the support lines the buyers may be watching to maintain their bullish consensus. For now, all these charts are pointing up with any retracements being bought.


GBPUSD: We saw some selling-off last week with a daily close below 1.32500. 1.29 looks vulnerable if we can hold below the 1.32 round number.

Crude: $50 is the line in the sand for this market. We have found some support at $49.35 which is at the half way back of the recent move up. Below $50, the bears have the ball on this market and a deeper move testing some of the most recent lows could be on the cards.

Gold: Gold has been rotating in an upwards channel and there may be some symmetrical patterns in play. A hold above $1264 at the 61.8 Fibonacci and we might see this market rotate higher to the top of the channel. Any daily closes below this price and outside of this channel may see some more sellers come in.

USDCAD: We are at an interesting price point here. Any breaks below support at 1.2400 and the bears might have this. Daily closes above 1.26 and the bulls might try for 1.2750.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

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Will the US raise interest rates in December?

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday 11th at 6pm will be the hottest news this week for USD traders eyeing up the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but life has a funny way of tripping up even the best laid plans. With inflation surprisingly low despite higher employment and a healthy economy, the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. Friday 13th’s CPI at 12.30pm GMT is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters. However, unless inflation starts to reach the planned 2% there are many voices who would like to see a change of policy altogether fearing that any rate rises could stifle growth. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures on Thursday 12th at 12.30pm GMT to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue with that.

A busy week for the Dow

Riding the US economy

Summer season is truly over in the States and traders are rolling up their sleeves back at their desks. This week there is a slew of activity to keep them busy but it all falls into second place behind Wednesday’s FOMC activity.

Officials have indicated that inflation could be staying under target for longer than predicted so forecasts for a rate rise look less certain. However, the Press Conference at 6.30pm GMT could throw out some interesting tidbits for traders eager to sniff out the future direction of rate policy.

Also tickling the fancy of USD traders this week is Tuesday 19th’s Building Permits data at 12.30pm. A good indication of general economic strength, traders have had little in the way of consistency for this event though the general trend is upwards. Predictions are for figures to stay around the same at 1.23M.

Finishing the week is another key economic figure, Unemployment Claims. This has rocketed in September suggesting the Trump bubble has burst. Currently standing at 284K down from its peak of 298K the week before, forecasts for 12.30pm GMT on Thursday hope another drop is coming otherwise this is a key sign that all is not well in the US economy and the Dow will be bucking like a bronco.