Top Tiql Tips: 19th to 25th February

Tiql tips time!

We’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch to help you to earn more with TIQL this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: kicks off early and peaks midweek

Traders are keen to know what will happen with the Bank of England’s interest rates. Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman, offers an exciting chance to kick the week off with some volatility on the pound when he talks about leadership and values in London (Monday 19th 6.45pm GMT).

Wages have been stagnating so Carney will be hoping for good news from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 21st 9.30am). Rising below inflation at 2.5% for the last few months, they haven’t helped paint a positive picture of the wider domestic economy.

The mid-week hump peaks with the big red flag, Inflation Report Hearings (2.15pm GMT Wednesday 21st February). Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee testify at the Treasury with comments expected about the currency markets. Lasting a few hours this can almost guarantee turbulence.

Sterling’s last big gasp of the week is the quarterly Second Estimate GDP (Thursday at 9.30am GMT). Rising more than expected to 0.5% analysts expect that to stabilise with no change forecast.

USD: Yellen’s last stand at the FOMC

Yellen is out. Powell is in. It’s regime change time. But is that boat getting rocked one last time by the ex-most powerful woman in the US economy?

Get the tissues ready to hear her final remarks in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for January (Wednesday 21st February 7.00pm GMT). We don’t expect her to hold back. Everyone and his donkey want to know where the Fed’s interest rate is going next and when. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes give all the juicy details and we want them hot off the press.

Incoming Chair, Jerome Powell, has stressed continuity. He caused a few chuckles with remarks that the Fed works for the “good of all Americans” recently. Some applaud his apparently strong free markets stance but the question remains whether organisations and markets will actually be allowed to fail should things go wrong. Check out Powell’s upcoming speeches to see where the future lies.

CAD & NZD: retail sales

New Zealand’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are forecast to uptick with 1.4% growth. Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are also expected to be stronger at 0.7% growth.

If pundits are correct, this makes the domestic economy look better than some would have hoped. Though every trader knows forecasts can be wrong. Last week’s US Core Retail Sales stagnated at 0.0% rather than the healthier 0.5% growth expected while there was a wince-inducing contraction of -0.2% in the wider Retail Sales. Now there’s an economy that’s suddenly not looking as bright as expected.

Canada’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd February 1.30pm GMT) boosted their economy last month by coming in at twice the forecast with 1.6% growth against the 0.8% predicted. They are cautiously optimistic about wider economic growth and this could be a strengthening economy.
Where Canada is concerned, always remember to track Crude Oil Inventories (Thursday 22nd February 4pm GMT) for its impact on the Loonie. Currently back in the positive after months of reductions, are we seeing a new trend in oil production?

EUR: no weekend off

The European Parliamentary Elections are on Sunday 25th. Expect EUR related markets to pay attention and watch out for possible corrections when markets open on Monday if there are any political upsets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

 

  • Mon Feb 19
    18:45:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Tue Feb 20
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Wed Feb 21
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    14:15:00 GMT GBP Inflation Report Hearings
    19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thu Feb 22
    16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Retail Sales q/q
  • Fri Feb 23
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
  • Sun Feb 25
    09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen broke through significant support and has been trading in a narrow range within last week’s range. The dollar hit a 3-year low against the Yen last week despite surging U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in global equity markets. The move may have been fueled by inflation concerns in the U.S. as well as worries about the huge U.S. current and budget deficits.

 

Bitcoin: BTCUSD is trading above the key $10000 round number. Key levels to watch this week are 12000 (completion of equidistant swing into previous supply/demand) and the 10,000 level.

 

Crude Oil: The chart we looked at last week is still in play. We have a potential ABCD pattern which could complete near the halfway back and previous chart structure at $54.

 


GBPUSD: The bulls still have the ball on cable. We found buyers at 1.38 last week and all eyes are on the 1.40 level to see if we can push higher. 1.45 could be a good target for the bulls to cover.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

 

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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Japan, Jacinta and the markets

Shocked

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past few years, you’ll know just how much politics can affect the markets. Two impactful political events are making themselves felt this week in Japan and New Zealand.

It looks like Japanese Prime Minister Abe learned what not to do from the recent British snap election. May called a snap election with a majority government and managed to slash her majority so badly she could only wobble back into power on the crutches of the ethically-dubious DUP. Abe has clearly taken notes. His snap election of Sunday 22nd resulted in a resounding landslide victory.

Abe has never looked so strong and if the markets like one thing, it’s a stable government. They have so many seats, they no longer need their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats. Economically, we may see increased government spending to fight deflation, especially in defence. Abe believes debt can only be overcome with growth, which goes against the austerity policy of many other countries.

If you cast your minds back, you’ll recall there was an election in New Zealand about a month ago. With no clear victor there has been much political negotiating about who will form a coalition government. In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it is second-place Labour, led by newcomer Jacinda Ardern, who will form an government with minority party NZ First led by Winston Peters. An unnatural combination, it is likely to worry markets, who will have hoped for a return to the steady policies of Bill English’s National party.

 

NZD Cash Rate Wednesday

They were worried for a minute

Bill English’s National Party might have held on to power and eased market fears, but the forecasts for the Official Cash Rate, due out at 8pm on Wednesday 27th GMT, are less clear.

Many expect the Bank to keep things steady in the current climate, but some argue the weakening currency and gloomy outlook in housing and construction make a rise before the end of the quarter more certain. Standing at 1.75% many feel the exchange rate is going to be crucial for the future direction of the RBNZ Cash Rate.

NZD is a volatile currency that tends to react to global forces. Trump and Kim’s war of words will have cautious investors heading back to safer markets, while China’s economy is a hot topic of debate that could push the Kiwi in a number of directions.

NZD and EUR election winners

Today's big winners - Merkel and English
Today’s big winners – Merkel and English

It all depends on who you talk to.

Some headlines are scaremongering that NZD has dropped from a week ago amid fears of weeks of coalition talks with a inward-looking nationalistic party. Bill English’s National party scraped back into power but it is going to be propped up by New Zealand First led by Winston Peters. Their tiny 9 seat party has a disproportionate amount of power under the New Zealand system. Other headlines are brushing it off saying the re-election of English means stability for the country, which the markets are going to like.

For the Euro, there has a been a sigh of relief as Merkel holds on to power for a fourth term. Widely seen as the new leader of the free world and with no other European leaders stepping up to vie for the top spot, it’s what the currency and its economic zone needed. Far-right election gains have been a worry here too, but they’re relegated to lag behind in third place.

Anything involving a vote by the general public can cause unexpected havoc as Brexit and Trump proved last year so markets will likely react positively as it looks like business as usual.

NZD: election week

Ardern vs English - New Zealand candidates
Ardern vs English – New Zealand candidates

The big contender for Friday’s New Zealand elections is a surprise outsider, Jacinda Ardern. The straight-talking 30-something has challenged patriarchal attitudes winning many supporters along the way since taking control of her party only two months ago. Her centre-left Labour party could cause major upset if they pull off a win against Prime Minister Bill English’s conservative National Party. Pundits are already comparing the 37-year-old to Justin Trudeau of Canada and Emmanuel Macron of France though neither of them face anachronistic questioning about their family plans.

New Zealand’s economy has done well under 9 years of National Party leadership so Ardern’s progressive agenda could ruffle business and banking feathers. Some expect a dip in the currency if her popularity grows amid fears that she will introduce a raft of tax-hikes to fund welfare changes.

For the budgetary minded, GDP figures on Wednesday 20th at 10.45pm, could help sway voters on the fence.