Top Tiql Tips: 22nd to 26th Jan 2018

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To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

EUR: hotting up on the continent
When did the Eurozone start looking so good? Bearish attitudes to the US dollar this week make the euro an even better prospect. Some analysts are surprised as surging stock markets and booming economies are a world away from where many though Europe would be right now. A quick glance at the European indices on Monday morning showed green from top to bottom. But what will the rest of the week bring? Two main events stand out.

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th) is a hub of business bigwigs and political heavyweights from across the globe. Meetings shaping economic policy and international business agendas go alongside whispered conversations that could be worth billions in the coffee bars and corridors. Listen out for any news concerning eurozone countries, currencies and businesses.

This event is likely to affect EURUSD and Dax.

Also big news this week, the European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 25th January at 7.45am GMT) currently stands at 0.00%. No change is forecast, which sounds like nothing. However, if the zone’s economy is doing well and inflation is looming, there is an argument for rates to rise. Pay very close attention to the ECB Press Conference (Thursday 25th at 8.30am GMT) for clues to the future direction of the central bank’s interest rate policy. Traders will react if there are suggestions of a rise on the way and the EUR could go on a ride.

Likely to affect all EUR pairs.

USD: shut down or not, it’s a good trading week
There are lots of trading events affecting the dollar and US stock markets this week including the WEF in Davos, Crude Oil Inventories and Advance GDP. It seems not even political catastrophes like a shut down government are going to put traders off their business. With global growth surging ahead in the Euro zone and Asia, USD traders don’t need to get caught up with domestic disputes, but it’s the bears who are feeling good. USD tends to fall when the world does well.

One global event any USD players might want to trade this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos (Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th). World business leaders get together in Switzerland this week to hammer out their shared vision for the future. There will be a stack of press releases for currency, commodity and stock traders to get excited over. This event is for everybody!

Although Trump’s attendance at Davos on Friday is now in question due to domestic trouble, his speech is expected to contrast sharply with the outward-looking tone from other quarters and could create some shockwaves in the markets.

Two key WEF dates: Tuesday 23rd (opening day) and Friday 26th (Trump’s speech).

Crude Oil Inventories has been in major decline since mid-November 2017 with an astonishing -6.9M barrel reduction last week. Analysts were slightly off-key with their restrained -1.4M forecast so don’t feel the need to believe them this week either (Wednesday 24th at 10.30am GMT). If you’ve been playing oil for a while, you are sure to have your own ideas.

Finally, the big domestic US figure to watch this week is Advance GDP (Friday 26th at 8.30am GMT). Currently at 3.2% forecasts are for a drop to 3.0%. Federal Reserve targets are 2.0% but the fact is the US economy is booming. Stock markets are at all time highs and Trump’s America First policy is giving producers confidence.

JPY: what’s the outlook for the Bank of Japan?
Things are rather depressed. The current long-term monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan has seen inflation creeping upwards but it’s not getting anywhere near the 2% target. Recent growth in the economy and rather too rosy expectations of medium to long-term rise in economic output makes Bank insiders think no change in policy is the way to go.

December’s solitary voice of dissent, newcomer Goushi Kataoka, argued that additional quantitive easing should be implemented to bolster the economy as the likelihood of inflation speeding up was so remote. The target for 10-year-bonds is 0% yield while interest rates stand at -0.1%. It’s not a pretty picture.

With the next update in March, few see a change in policy this month. Some analysts are even predicting current policy will stick until at least 2019. But Kataoka has cracked open the door to allow different opinions so the 8-1 ratio may change. If that happens, you can be sure markets will react.

After the Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and Rate are announced (lunchtime Monday 22nd), the Press Conference (1.30am GMT Tuesday 23rd) should provide the most action on the markets for this event.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Tue Jan 23
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    03:55:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
  • Wed Jan 24
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q
  • Thu Jan 25
    12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Fri Jan 26
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Prelim GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Advance GDP q/q
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
    14:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    14:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: The Aussie has come up against some supply. While there may be more upside to go on this pair, it makes sense that there may be some correction on this pair. The half way back near the 200 SMA and previous supply might be of interest to the buyers. Right now, 0.80 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Gold: Gold has had a good run and is trading near some potential supply. Traders will be watching the 1345 zone to see how price behaves this week. If we get a move down, 1300 would make a good target for the bears and a likely place for the buyers to leg into any potential moves up.

GBPUSD: We are trading near a key level on cable. 1.40 is the key level to watch as we go into the trading week.

Crude Oil: The bulls have had a good run and we could imagine some covering going on at this level perhaps. The chart below outlines the key levels on crude as we approach the end of January.

USDJPY: Still range bound for now. The key levels to watch are 110.00 and 111.75 to see where traders can push this to. Bank of Japan news out early Tuesday and the speech on Friday might give this pair enough volatility to test these levels.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

EUR: hotting up on the continent

looking good

The Eurozone hasn’t looked this good in years. Bearish attitudes to the US dollar makes the euro an even better prospect. Surging stock markets and booming economies are a world away from where plenty though Europe would be right now, but that’s what’s happened.

A quick glance at the European indices on Monday morning shows green from top to bottom. But what will this week bring? 2 key events stand out.

WEF

The World Economic Forum in Davos from Tuesday 23rd to Friday 26th brings together business bigwigs and political heavyweights from across the globe in one glorious financial bonanza. Meetings shaping economic policy and agendas rub alongside whispered conversations in the coffee bars and corridors that could be worth billions. Listen out for any news concerning eurozone countries, currencies and businesses.

Likely to affect EURUSD and Dax.

European Central Bank

The ECB delivers its Minimum Bid Rate on Thursday 25th January at 7.45am GMT. Standing at 0.00% the forecast is no change. But if the zone’s economy is on the up and inflation is looming, there is an argument for rates to rise. Pay close attention to the ECB Press Conference at 8.30am GMT for clues to the future direction of the central bank’s interest rate policy. Traders will react if there are suggestions of a rise on the way.

Likely to affect all EUR pairs.

2017: 3 events that shook the trading world

2017 – surprise!

Are natural disasters in the top three?

Mother nature showed her power this year sending Hurricanes Maria, Harvey and Irma across US territory and beyond, a massive earthquake to Mexico, monsoon flooding in Bangladesh. mudslides in Colombia and landslides in Sierra Leone. The human toll has been unfathomable and the markets didn’t like them either, though the US administration seems to think we don’t need to worry. But these weren’t the biggest events to hit the markets in 2017.

Bitcoin shock: a strong contender

December has brought a late contender to event of the year with the Bitcoin surge. Prompted by the cryptocurrency’s ascendency to two major futures exchanges in the U.S., investors flooded to buy Bitcoin though a few days after the launch prices looked like they were subsiding.

Sky-rocketing prices

Bitcoin reached a high of $19,375 on the Coinbase exchange on December 18th as trading launched on the giant CME exchange and its Chicago rival CboE Global Markets. The decision to list the currency legitimised Bitcoin and raised its profile enormously. Since the announcement was made, demand pushed the price through ceiling after ceiling and the media shouted frantic headlines warning potential investors about bubbles. At the time of writing, there has been no crash.

The problem with Bitcoin

The problem with Bitcoin for some is that it is outside the control of the existing authorities. Like the internet under net neutrality is equally accessible by all, Bitcoin is not the currency of one nation or even one region. It has no physical form and none of the established national or international authorities are in control of the supply. They don’t like that.

Bitcoin pros and cons

Bitcoin is limited by design to a maximum of 21 million coins. Supporters see it as a natural global successor to national physical currencies and exchange rates. Features of cryptocurrencies called blockchain will mean they can also securely replace other functions in banking and business so the potential is astronomical. Critics, including Singapore’s financial watchdog, warn that the lack of physical properties mean it is inherently valueless and investors will lose out when they come to withdraw their funds. Some say these critics are running scared.

Should everyone take Bitcoin seriously now?

The short answer is yes. In stark contrast to the doom and gloom of the threatened financial system, Ronnie Moas, the independent analyst who forecast this rise, now says he sees values reaching a meteoric $400,000 in 2018 saying the “mind-blogging supply and demand imbalance is what is going to drive the higher price.” He was right before; will he be right again? Either way, plenty are jumping on the bandwagon.

Brexit: the Brits want out

A review of market-moving events in 2017 has to include the Brexit tidal wave, which continues to punish GBP markets. Brexit is the snappy moniker bestowed by the British press on the British exit from the European Union decided by referendum in June 2016. 2017 has been a battle waged between varying factions in the UK government, who are justifiably concerned that washing their laundry in public puts them at a disadvantage in negotiations over the terms of the exit.

Europe, 20 June 2016
Brexit.
Markus Grolik/Cartoon Movement/Hollandse Hoogte

Who is responsible for Brexit?

In 2016, rampant propaganda, fervent canvassing and decidedly dodgy claims resulted in the United Kingdom agreeing to crash out of the thriving economic and political union that has blossomed since the 1970s. Why would one of the world’s biggest economies decide to commit economic suicide? Good question and it’s one many continue to scratch their heads over. The pound plummeted immediately sending imported product prices rocketing and the beleaguered currency has failed to yet make a full recovery over 18 months later.

What’s next for GBP?

The future for the British currency is unclear. A large part of its economy is funded by revenue from the City of London. However, many international banks are setting up subsidiaries in Frankfurt and other key European cities, all keen to become the new home of passporting. This key facility was located in the UK capital and allowed banks to work across Europe without needing authorisation in each individual country. It is highly unlikely passporting will continue to run from London when it leaves the Union and the banks are likely to cut many jobs and reduce their contribution to the economy in the UK from then on.

Will Brexit be calmer in 2018?

Political news around the exit negotiations are likely to impact both sterling and the Euro. Inside the Union, leaders will be keen to ensure Great Britain isn’t seen to get a good deal in order to deter other nations from making similar exit plans. It will be essential that countries who are in look better off than those who opt out. It’s looking cold outside the E.U and Britain will need to negotiate individual trade agreements with everyone. The deadline is 2019 so 2018 will be a rollercoaster ride through negotiations.

Trump

That word has so many meanings. It can be the winning card in a game. It can mean doing better than your rival. It can mean something altogether more foul-smelling connected to digestion. But this year Trump gained a new meaning as Donald became the 45th POTUS in an election that put the Brexit Leavers campaign to shame.

Sheneman Dec 2017

How did Donald Trump win?

Donald won by wooing the electorate that mattered in a battle against Washington insider, Hillary Clinton. While the rest of the world saw a privileged white man; a man with inherited money that he frittered away on poor business deals who was paying his way to the top spot on the Republican ticket, voters in key States believed the nationalist ‘America First’ propaganda and insular rhetoric pouring from his Twitter feed. Despite winning fewer votes than his rival, Donald won the White House. Look up the electoral college system if you’re keen to see how it’s rigged set up.

What did the markets think of Trump?

Trump revealed a change in attitude from the markets towards geopolitical risk. The shockwaves from the election were relatively minor. Although the rising value of safe haven gold suggests they’re not entirely keen.

Markets and politics

Since Trump was elected, the markets have learned to weather the Twitter spats between Kim and Trump, watched the military posturing across the east Asian region with a bucket of popcorn, ignored the implications of Russian interference in key Western democracies, and will see the year out analysing Trump’s ham-fisted diplomacy in Jerusalem and the U.N. with great interest. Interestingly, at no point have any of the indices tanked suggesting there may be a growing separation between geopolitics and market valuation. Or things haven’t got crazy enough to worry them yet.

2017 was characterised by massive geopolitical upheaval that didn’t always translate into market movement. But the biggest upset for the year was Bitcoin. Will other cryptocurrencies now gain value? Will the bubble burst or is BTC finding its true level? Let’s see in 2018.

 

Top Tiql Tips: 12th to 15th Dec 2017

On the 12th day of Christmas

With only a few weeks until the end of the year, we’ve giving you this free guide to help you to earn more with TIQL. Covering the markets and dates to watch this week, economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: FOMC December Rate Hike
The vast majority of USD traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% (Wednesday 13th 7pm GMT) so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are also other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference (13th 7.30pm) should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Global: Libor Bank Rate
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set (Thursday 14th 8.30am GMT) and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

GBP: BoE base rate
This week we’re all about the rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. The Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%) only hours after Libor (Thursday 14th 12pm GMT), so expect volatility for the duration. The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

45 minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 14th 12.45pm GMT), which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 12
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    • 19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    • 22:15:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Wed Dec 13
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    • 19:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
  • Thu Dec 14
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    • 17:25:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: Although this pair is looking heavy, the Aussie is at a key technical level with previous demand, the half way back is nearby and an ascending trend line. The 0.75 price is a key level to watch. Keep an eye on any moves on the commodities such as gold, which will impact this FX pair.

BTCUSD: After an eye-watering retracement last week where we saw $13000 tested, it looks like bitcoin may try and test the all-time highs once again.

EURUSD: Pundits have been calling the end of Euro for some time but this pair remains in the range for now. We are watching the edges of the consolidation for the market to tip its hand.

Gold: Have we broken down or are we just running the stops at these lows? Daily closes under 1250 and we could see a deeper move down. Closes above 1260 and the bulls may try for some of the higher numbers.

USDJPY: We remain within the yearly range for now. The main levels to watch are 110.50 and 114.50 to see if these are defended as they have been before.

USDCAD: The lows held last week after that very bearish daily candle. It looks like the highs may be tested and we have the equidistant swing completing into the 200 SMA.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

BoE base rate

It’s all about the base

This week we’re all about the base rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. On Thursday 14th at 12pm GMT the Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%). As it comes only hours after Libor, expect volatility for the duration.

The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

Forty-five minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate, which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Libor Bank Rate

It’s important?

The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set on Thursday 14th at 8.30am and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

3 big banking events

2 days off

Three major currencies will be affected by news from their central banks this week.

First up is the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA affecting AUD on Tuesday 21st at 12.30am GMT. The economy seems to be moving into a steadier phase so traders will be looking for signs of impending interest rate changes. This will feed into a red flag AUD speech later the same day when the RBA main man, Lowe, gives a dinner speech at 9.05am GMT.

The US FOMC Meeting Minutes are out on Wednesday 22nd at 7pm GMT keeping traders at their desks right until closing time the day before Thanksgiving. A big question hangs over the chance of a final rate rise in December 2017.

Finally, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday 23rd at 12.30pm GMT. This is only an orange event at the moment but the rocky political situation facing Merkel in Germany could increase interest and uncertainty in EUR markets.

Top Tiql Tips: 13th to 17th Nov

Love it

Here is your useful free guide to the markets this week to help you to earn more with TIQL. It has all the key market events and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements often cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

CPI: 3 major events this week
The Consumer Price Index is a good indication of inflation and is one reason why the BoE recently raised rates. Standing at 3.0% y/y CPI, forecasts suggest little change at 3.1% (Tuesday 14th 9.30am GMT). Interestingly, many analysts believe the Retail Price Index (Tuesday 14th 9.30am GMT) gives a better correlation for inflation. That’s currently at 3.9% but it looks set to break the 4% mark and possibly reach 4.1% y/y change. Not good for the U.K.

If the pound is not your thing, you might watch the USD CPI event (Wednesday 15th 1.30pm GMT). CPI is forecast to drop from 0.5% to 0.1% m/m though Core CPI is set to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% at the same time showing how volatile CPI data can be.

Canada also delivers CPI data this week (Friday 17th 1.30pm GMT). Last month it didn’t quite reach the forecast 0.3% and settled for 0.2% instead. This month looks set to drop that further to 0.1% if the pundits are correct.

Interest Rates: 4 bankers to listen to
Last week’s GBP interest rate increase means the Bank of England’s Mark Carney is in demand. If you want to hear him speak, tune in to the Central European Bank’s discussion “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” (Tuesday 14th 10am). It will be riveting. No really, because this key event also gives Federal Reserve Bank Chair Yellen, European Central Bank President Draghi and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda a platform. Traders will be listening for insights into the prevailing sentiment for each central bank and what that might mean for interest rates.

For further banker gems, catch Kuroda (5.45pm GMT Monday 13th) at the University of Zurich. Then Carney delivers pearls of wisdom when talking to members of the UK Monetary Policy Committee at Future Forum 2017 in Liverpool (Thursday 16th 2pm GMT). Finally, Draghi rounds the week off with a rousing speech entitled “Europe into a New Era – How to Seize the Opportunities” (Friday 17th 8.30am GMT).

Retail Sales: 2 events to trade
The U.S.A. and the U.K. both release their monthly Retail Sales figures this week. As a key indicator of the health of the economy, how much the public spends at the shops is essential knowledge for currency traders and stock markets alike.

The US delivers two key data: Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales (1.30pm GMT Wednesday 15th). The main difference is that the Core figures exclude automobile sales, which can be volatile. US shoppers have been anything but reliable in the last year so last month’s 1% growth for Core isn’t any guarantee this month will also be positive, though forecasts are for 0.2%. As shoppers start thinking about Christmas, that is maybe to be expected and a drop would be extra worrying.

Britain’s shopping figures have suffered a similarly unpredictable pattern over the last year and a negative figure certainly won’t help GBP. The recent interest rate hike won’t have had a chance to impact domestic sales so any decline can’t be blamed on that. Analysts are positive seeing an upturn from -0.8% to 0.2% (Thursday 16th 9.30am GMT), but will the markets see that as strength or wonder about increasing levels of personal debt?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Mon Nov 13
    17:45:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • Tue Nov 14
    09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    10:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
    10:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    10:00:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
    10:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
  • Wed Nov 15
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Nov 16
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    14:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Fri Nov 17
    08:30:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m

Some Markets to Watch…
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

World Indices: Looks like we may have seen some selling pressure come into the stock indices last week. A stand-out chart is the Nikkei where we can see a bearish candle that must be giving the bulls a little pause. The Dax has printed some sell-off candles that might also look scary to the bulls.

EURUSD: The euro is still trading below the chop zone with the longs defending those lows for now. Any daily closes back into the chop zone and we can expect more side-to-side action while the bulls and the bears look for a side to dominate.

USDJPY: The yen remains trading under 114.50 failing to break out to new highs. Below this level, it’s likely the bears will position into the old highs to get short. We saw the price briefly break up above the 114.50 shaking out the weak hands before falling lower. Any price acceptance with daily closes above this level, will we see a move higher?

BTCUSD: The crypto pair has come under pressure since Friday. Today, buyers stepped in at the half way back to defend. Will we see a retest of the highs or see another large drop on BTC? If the half way back should breach, there is possible demand at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement near $4950 to $5000 zone.

Crude Oil: looks like it is all about the 200 SMA on the weekly chart as Oil returns to the moving average for the first time since 2014. We do have some supply zones ahead and we could expect some selling pressure here. The $55 will be a key test for the shorts as can be seen on the daily chart.

GBPUSD: We continue to trade within a consolidation/chop zone. Traders will be try to trade the edge of this zone but ultimately we need a clear break higher or lower to get involved.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
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4 bankers, 1 key date (well maybe a few more)

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Last week’s interest rate increase means the Bank of England’s Mark Carney is in demand. If you want to hear him speak, tune in to the Central European Bank’s discussion “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication” on Tuesday 14th at 10am. It will be riveting. No really, because this key event also gives Federal Reserve Bank Chair Yellen, European Central Bank President Draghi and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda a platform. Traders will be listening for insights into the prevailing sentiment for each central bank and what that might mean for interest rates.

For further banker gems, catch Kuroda at 5.45pm GMT on Monday 13th at the University of Zurich. Then Carney delivers pearls of wisdom when talking to members of the UK Monetary Policy Committee at Future Forum 2017 in Liverpool on Thursday 16th at 2pm GMT. Finally, Draghi rounds the week off with a rousing speech entitled “Europe into a New Era – How to Seize the Opportunities” on Friday 17th at 8.30am GMT.

Your helpful weekly guide to the markets: 16th to 20th Oct

Just your average helpful friend

Helpful! That’s us. So to help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and some key dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. You will receive $1 the very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

CPI: 3 dates this week
New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (Monday 16th at 9.45pm) could rise from its flat 0.0% to 0.4% or possibly even 1.8% depending on who you ask. Either result should give the NZDUSD pair a boost.

Great Britain‘s yearly CPI change (Tuesday 17th at 8.30am GMT) isn’t setting traders pulses racing with predictions along the lines of ‘nothing happening.’ The sluggish economy may see a nudge up from 2.9% to 3.0%, but with targets set at 2%, no-one is going to like that much.

Canada’s monthly CPI (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) concerned analysts when it shrank from 0.2% to 0.1% last month. Combined with worries over the strength of NAFTA the currency isn’t looking as strong as it was. Could it drop to 0.0% this week?

AUD: rate rise news
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (17th at 12.30am) should explain the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate decision. The rate maintained its record low position of 1.5% at the start of October and some feels this is holding the currency down. Opinions about how wise the current policy is are rather varied though ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’ was one recent judgement.

Employment: 4 key figures
GBP could see movement from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT.) British workers’ wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation casting doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. We will be watching closely when Bank of England’s Mark Carney talks to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and attitude towards the employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

The United States‘ weekly Unemployment Claims (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) has predictions for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

Australia also reveals its monthly Unemployment Rate this week (Thursday 19th at 12.30am GMT). At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Slow and steady wins the race or stalls the economy?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Monday 16th October
21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q

Tuesday 17th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
08:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
10:15:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Wednesday 18th October
08:10:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 19th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims

​Friday 20th October
12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
23:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its steam roll upwards making new highs in the last week. If BTC continues its momentum, could we see $6000 this week? Downside support levels where the bulls might take action are shown in the chart below. Retracements tend to be fast and deep on this market so take care and always use a stop loss.

GBPUSD: Broke through the key price level 1.3250 and is now trading just below last week’s high. This pair has been moving in a channel making higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the year and had broken through the 50% retracement at 1.35. Some daily closes above the 1.3250 and we might see the bulls push on to retest the yearly highs and top of the channel. If the bears can push this market down, we might see a retracement to old support and the 200 simple moving average.

Gold: It looks like the bulls have this market for now. The symmetrical pattern we were watching played out and we have had a daily close above the key resistance level at 1295. Watching to see if the bulls can push this to retest the recent highs.

USDJPY: Make or break level for the USDJPY here. Could be a good price for the buyers to load and continue this year’s upward move on gold.

Crude: Still watching the ABCD pattern play out for a retest into the $54.5 level and the 50% extension of the upward move which began in mid June. $53 is the level to watch this week for any defence by the shorts.

USDCAD: this pair is trading above key support at 1.24. We have resistance at 1.2750 and the next demand level at 1.2050.

 

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