Top Tiql Tips: 15th to 19th Jan 2018

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Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

CAD: Bank Rate Thursday 

Traders get all excited when a national bank announces its latest rate and this week it’s Canada’s turn (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th). Its key Overnight Rate currently stands at 1.00% though forecasters predict a rise to 1.25% on the back of strong hints from banking figures. The last change was in September last year when it also rose by 0.25% from 0.75%.
It’s likely the rise will have been priced in so traders are more interested in the Rate Statement (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th), which might give insights into the reasons behind the decision and reveal any discord among the committee members. The Press Conference (4.15pm GMT Wednesday 17th) will be the most volatile time as the BoC Governor fields questions from the press.

CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

The world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies this week. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7% ( 7am GMT Thursday 18th).

At the same time Industrial Production is released (7am GMT Thursday 18th). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. It looks like Industrial Production will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any deviation from this will impact widely.
The Chinese currency is increasingly important after recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017. Definitely one to watch.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (4pm GMT Thursday 18th). AUD is also related with a couple of good events this week.

USD: What would MLK say?

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday (Monday 15th January) – Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. After recent comments about Haiti and Africa, some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke. But he likes a day off as much as the next man.

US currency and commodities traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th January). This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Unemployment Claims (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th) will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reins of the economy next month.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

Tue Jan 16
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
Wed Jan 17 
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
◦ 16:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Press Conference
Thu Jan 18 
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
◦ 16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
Fri Jan 19 
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: 13000 was defended late last week and BTCUSD is presently trading just above 14000. Where to next for this crypto? Who knows in the short term. We have resistance at 15,000 and previous demand at 13,000 and 12,000; these are the levels we are watching as we go into the trading week.

Brent Oil: $70 looks like an interesting level to watch on this market where we had previous demand there from 2015. $65 may support with previous recent demand.

Crude: Crude oil is also at a potential decision point. Will the bulls push on or is this the level sellers come in?

EURUSD: The euro has been well bought over the last few days. For now, the 1.23 level is key and we have seen some of the longs covering their positions here.

Gold: Looks like a retest of the highs is on the cards if the bulls can keep on the pressure. The chart below highlights some support and resistance levels, which may be of interest.

USDCAD: All eyes on 1.24 to see where it goes from here. More dollar weakness and we may see this level breached this week.

GBPUSD: 1.38 is a key level this week. We are testing the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and an old low made before the Brexit vote. This drive higher has been aided by the weak dollar and some recent news on Brexit negotiations.

USDJPY: the Yen is testing a key level now at 110.75. Below this, we might expect a test of the round number 110 and if we get a deeper correction, the 107.5 where we found demand before. Any trades back into the consolidation and 113 might provide resistance.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

Happiness

On Thursday 18th at 7am GMT the world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7%.

At the same time Industrial Production is released (Thursday 18th at 7am GMT). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. This looks like it will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any changes will impact widely.

The currency is increasing in importance with recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (Thursday 18th at 4pm). AUD is also related.

War? Huh. What is it good for?

How Trump and Kim Jong Un should settle it

Absolutely nothing if you agree with Frankie and most sane people. Sometimes you have to wonder what goes through the minds of some of our world leaders. Trump and Kim Jong Un have amped up the war of words over the weekend making the threat of war loom large, especially over Japan. Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called a snap election. If things are going nuclear and he gets stuck in the middle, he doesn’t want to be in the hot seat.

The markets don’t usually take kindly to the idea of war looming, but latest figures suggest they’re not taking it seriously. Stock indices and USD markets usually think the consequence of war is brutal and widespread so their lack of reaction to the exchange of threats is strange. Surprisingly, gold isn’t on the up and the Dow and S&P500 don’t seem fazed.

If things do kick off then the infrastructure damage can massive impact a nation’s short-term economic viability, costing citizens and governments billions. And this means debt as rebuilding efforts must often be financed with cheap capital. Interest rates are usually suppressed to keep capital costs down and this decreases the value of the currency.  Don’t forget that the complete uncertainty of war itself impacts markets on a day-to-day basis as well as the longer-term economic outlook.

If you’re interested in how the latest threat of war could affect currencies, commodities and markets you play, then Trump’s Twitter feed needs to be on your radar along with Reuters and, of course, your Tiql updates.

3 key manufacturing events

What was that?

Traders take manufacturing data seriously as it is so closely linked to the general health of the economy. The three key manufacturing events to look at this week are all on Friday 1st September.

  1. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 2.45am BST. Pundits see very little change at around 51. Anything over 50 indicates growth but it’s close.
  2. The British monthly Manufacturing PMI is at 9.30am BST and also due to stay the same at around 55 so healthier than China.
  3. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise slightly from 56.3 to 56.5.

The fact all three are seeing very little  movement sheds light on a general stagflation problem globally. If traders are looking for movement, they may do well to look elsewhere – commodities such as gold and oil may seem more interesting in these conditions.

CAD and EUR will also see manufacturing related action this week. Canada’s RMPI sheds light on the price manufacturers pay for raw materials on Tuesday 29th at 1.30pm BST while the Spanish Manufacturing PMI on Friday 1st at 8.15am BST could affect the Euro.

Eye-catching CPI and PPI figures

Catch!

It almost wouldn’t be a trading week without looking at the US dollar. This week it’s the CPI and PPI that are catching our eye. But not for the right reasons.

Since it briefly looked perky in May at 0.5% the monthly Producer Price Index has been decidedly sluggish. Forecasts are for things to stay the same at 0.1% on Thursday 10th at 1.30pm GMT. Core PPI looks slightly brighter rising to 0.2% if predictions are correct but the US economy seems to be stagnating.

While producers aren’t paying more, consumers are, and the CPI on Friday 12th at 1.30pm GMT should jump by 0.2% if the pundits have got it right. For more action, dollar traders are more likely to pay attention to the FOMC speeches when other currency pointers seem to be standing still this week.

Also worth watching are the Chinese prices indexes out on Wednesday 9th at 2.30am GMT. Both CPI and PPI are released at the same time with indications that very little has changed there too.

China’s GDP is just a small part of the picture

Looking like good friends

Monday 17th at 3am GMT sees China’s National Bureau of Statistics reveal the latest GDP figures. Experts predict growth will remain consist with last month at 6.8%, where its hovered since the start of 2016.

Recent talks between Premier Xi Jinping and President Trump have hinted at improvements in trade relations. But China has made many of these promises before, few of which have been followed through so businesses remain wary. It’s worth noting China needs help with energy, so commodities like oil, coal and gas could see an uptick. Additionally, encouraging international investment in financial instruments would help their markets become more stable and professional. Both areas could see a real improvement as a result of the 100-day plan announced a week ago and therefore a knock-on effect in the value of the Chinese yuan.

Keep an eye on political developments in the region with Trump strongly hinting that business advantages could be had for cooperation in taming North Korea.

Which country does this eagle seem like?

At the same time as GDP we get an insight into the yearly change in Chinese Industrial Production. Growth is predicted to drop from 6.3% to 6.2%. As there is a strong correlation between AUD and CNY look out for the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 2.30am GMT on Tuesday 18th. With the economy a little less stable than those in power would like, the Australian dollar may well react to the CNY events too.

Chinese Trade Balancing act

no, no, maybe yes – GIPHY

Will China get its second positive data in seven months on Wednesday 8th? (time to be confirmed)

After five months of significantly lower trade balances than forecast, February turned things around and China saw a 355b trade balance against the 295b predicted. A positive figure means more was exported than imported and this is good for the currency.  A slowdown has been predicted for the Chinese economy so a rise is not certain. Last month may have been a blip. That’s the beauty of currency trading – we won’t know until Wednesday.

Recession averted – what will AUD cash rate be on Tuesday 7th?

With growth of 1.1% in the last quarter of 2016, many are cheering as Australia goes 25 years without entering recession. But some are wondering if that’s the right view to take.

not the smartest move – GIPHY

Some people are already muttering that the Cash Rate could drop to 1% this year. Forecasters think it will stay at 1.5% on Tuesday 7th March but Trump’s presidency causing USD to surge, and falling Chinese demand for Australian property due to their own economic difficulties could mean the cheering is premature. The Australian economy isn’t out of danger yet.

Retail Sales figures due at 12.30am GMT on Monday 6th will shed light on domestic confidence, but it’s the RBA Rate Statement at 3.30am GMT on Tuesday 7th that traders will focus on looking for signs of if and when a rate change could come.

Chart showing AUDUSD FX pair
More downside for the AUDUSD?

Saying that, forecasters have been known to be wrong in the past and perhaps the Reserve Bank will drop the rate sooner than expected. If that happens, hold on to your hats as AUD pairs will have a bumpy ride.

Whichever way you think AUDUSD is going to go, you can trade this and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL. All TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from loosing more than you have invested in a trade.