CAD: GDP blue moon monthly

Carzy like cat

Canada’s GDP suffered a decline in growth from 0.4% to 0.1% at the start of March. With its second data release in a month giving it a blue moon quality, does anyone expect things to get better? Nope – well, maybe one or two pundits. But CAD may just go a little crazy. Check out the action on Thursday 29th March at 1.30pm GMT.

Canada hasn’t had the best month. Trump openly admitted to making up stats in a meeting with Trudeau while Crude Oil has given the Loonie a good ride. Talk at the moment suggests a rate hike could be on the cards next week; inflation hit a 3-year high and Trump’s new deadline for NAFTA puts both Mexico and Canada under threat of steel tariffs.

The dollar jumped half a cent as the week closed on Friday 24th and markets are likely to be choppy as local markets open on Monday 27th.

 

CAD: CPI & Retail Sales Friday

CAD just about staying afloat

CAD sank to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2017 at the end of last week (76.41cents) signalling troubling times for the north American currency.

Clashes over oil stockpiles between OPEC and the States have ricocheted  sending the Looney (CADs alter ego) into a spiral. Deeply dependent on their oil reserves, Wednesday’s Crude Oil Inventories at 2.30pm GMT, could change its fortunes again.

But oil isn’t the half of it. Unhappy grumblings about the NAFTA in Canadian economic circles and the potential looming trade war with their southern neighbour weren’t helped by Trump’s glibly delivered false news data in his meeting with Trudeau. Admitting he made up details about a trade deficit, Trump seems to have no qualms about upsetting the States’ friends around the world.

A speech by Reserve Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins could have a few tidbits to entice traders to make a call on how to close the week at 6.45pm GMT on 22nd. But CAD investors will be watching two key figures apart from Trudeau and Trump this Friday.

Rocky CPI figures (23rd 12.30pm GMT) will be watched hoping for another gain after the surprisingly large 0.7% against the 0.4% predicted last month. Core Retail Sales, Friday 23rd March at 12.30pm GMT, are more volatile heading down to -1.8% against 0.1 gain predicted last month. This month it could go either way but another negative would sting Looney bulls badly.

 

Top Tiql Tips: 6th to 9th March

Sharing tips like buddies do

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are our predictions for data that could make trading news this week:​

4 Bank Rates to Rock the Week

If you like the roller coaster ride when banks make interest rate decisions, you’ve got a good week ahead with 4 major rates being set.

First to go is the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing its new Cash Rate (Tuesday 6th March 3.30am GMT). The Rate Statement, out at the same time, could have a few hidden gems but the 1.50% rate looks likely to stay the same.
The Bank of Canada releases its new Overnight Rate next (Wednesday 7th 3pm GMT). With the recent rise in January, not many expect any change so the accompanying Rate Statement will be where it’s at. Listen out for news on NAFTA – news about the trade agreement is having a noticeable effect on CAD at the moment.

Contending with the fallout from the Italian elections as populist parties gained strength, all EUR trading eyes switched to the ECB this week. The European Central Bank’s Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 8th 12.45pm GMT) has stood at 0.00% since March 2016. A majority of opinion holds that it won’t change this month either. The Eurozone economy was looking strong at the start of the year but experienced some bumps in the PMIs last month. This month Trump’s tariff threats add little positive to the mix so keeping things stable is high on the agenda.

Japan closes the week for bank rates when the Bank of Japan shares its latest Policy Rate (Friday 9th March time to be confirmed). Held at -0.1% since September 2016 there have been murmurs about a change of position. The Policy Statement and Press Conference should be good for positions into the weekend.

AUD: 7 essential data traders need to know

It’s a busy week for AUD traders with a plethora of data to digest. Here are the 7 essential data traders need to manage if they’re serious about their Aussie dollar action.

The biggest news of the week is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). The 1.50% rate has stood for 19 consecutive months and few people expect RBA Governor Lowe to break that status quo. Futures markets don’t see any rise this year, not even a teeny little 0.25% one. That makes things interesting when the general economy appears to be doing well but data suggests the Aussie consumer is heavily debt-laden.

The Rate Statement, out just after the Cash Rate, will have traders analysing every word for clues to the direction of future rate changes. RBA’s Governor, Rob Lowe, has a difficult path to navigate.

Not as significant as the Cash Rate, the Australian Current Account is actually the first major AUD event of the week (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT). It should set the tone for traders. With the deficit set to grow from -9.1B to -12.3B, it doesn’t look like a cause for celebration.

Retail Sales (Tuesday 6th 12.30am GMT) adds more curious detail to the complex Australian picture with predictions of a swing to growth from -0.5% to 0.4%. Closely correlated to the domestic economy this is either a positive sign of a a strengthening economy or another nail in the debt coffin of the average citizen.

RBA Governor Lowe will address the issue of the Changing Nature of Investment in Sydney, Australia (9.35pm GMT Wednesday 7th March). Coming so soon after the new Cash Rate traders will be looking for indications of what Lowe plans to do next.

GDP (Wednesday 7th 12.30am GMT) had expectations of growth downgraded to 0.5% from 0.6%. That would be the second shrinkage in a row and way off the 1.1% seen a year ago.

The Aussie Trade Balance is the final major data of the AUD week (Thursday 8th 12.30am GMT). Forecasts suggest a swing from -1.36B to 0.22B in the black. With a weak AUDUSD pairing this could change a few minds to a positive outlook for the Australian dollar.

Plenty of events this week should give Tiql’s AUD traders lots of action and could see widely differing opinions of the currency emerge.

USD: vital job figures (but not for farmers) and other key data

Are you excited? We’re excited. What a trading week we’ve got this week for USD and the cream of the crop is Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 9th March 1.30pm GMT).

Recent months have seen employment levels go against predictions more times than Trump’s tweets have upset world leaders, so buckle up for a fun market ride this week. Standing at 200k pundits expect a rise to 204k. The domestic economy is the biggest influence on the dollar so finding out whether John Doe has a job matters.

Also big on the dollar calendar this week is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 3pm GMT) with a healthy 59.9 predicted to drop to 58.9. That’s still way above the 50 threshold between positive and negative outlooks.

And don’t forget your midweek oil news with Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 7th 3.30pm GMT). OPEC may be mostly sticking to its agreement to make cuts to shore up oil prices, but the US is having none of it. Last week saw an increase of 3.0M when analysts only forecast 2.4M and previous weeks have been in the black since mid-January apart from one minor blip two weeks back.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

    • Tue Mar 06
      • 18:15:00 GMT GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
      • 21:35:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
    • Wed Mar 07
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD GDP q/q
      • 13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
      • 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
    • Thu Mar 08
      • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
      • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
      • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
      • 16:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
      • 20:35:00 GMT CAD Gov Council Member Lane Sp
    • Fri Mar 09
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
      • 03:50:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
      • 06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
      • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
      • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin is pressured down as the market struggles to find fresh bullish catalysts to push it higher. We are currently trading within last week’s range. The key levels to watch are 12000 and 9000 as we go into the week.


USDJPY: We are still trading below a key zone and there is some clear trading space to 101. For now, this looks bullish on daily closes above 108 and bearish below 106. 101 remains a key area of interest for the bears.


Crude: Still in the range for now. Certainly a deeper correction is within reason. Right now the lines in the sand to watch are $61 and $64.


GBPUSD: The chart below says it all. We are trading at a key level here as you can see.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

4 Bank Rates to Rock the Week

Rates that rock

If you like to trade interest rate decisions, you’ve got a good week ahead with 4 major rates being set.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its new Cash Rate on Tuesday 6th March at 3.30am. The Rate Statement, out at the same time, could have a few hidden gems but the 1.50% rate looks likely to stay the same.

The Bank of Canada releases its Overnight Rate on Wednesday 7th at 3pm GMT. With the recent rise in January, few predict further change so the accompanying Rate Statement will be the focus of attention. Listen out for news on NAFTA, which is having a strong effect on CAD at the moment.

Contending with the fallout from the Italian elections as populist parties gained strength, all EUR trading eyes switch to the ECB this week. The Minimum Bid Rate is announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday 8th at 12.45pm. Standing at 0.00% since March 2016, a majority of opinion holds that this won’t change. The Eurozone economy was looking strong though there were some bumps in the PMIs last month. This month Trump’s tariff threats add little positive to the mix.

Japan closes the week for bank rates when the Bank of Japan shares its latest Policy Rate some time in the early hours of Friday 9th March. -0.1% since September 2016 there have been murmurs about a change of position. The following Policy Statement and Press Conference should be good for positions into the weekend.

Top Tiql Tips: 19th to 25th February

Tiql tips time!

We’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch to help you to earn more with TIQL this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

GBP: kicks off early and peaks midweek

Traders are keen to know what will happen with the Bank of England’s interest rates. Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman, offers an exciting chance to kick the week off with some volatility on the pound when he talks about leadership and values in London (Monday 19th 6.45pm GMT).

Wages have been stagnating so Carney will be hoping for good news from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 21st 9.30am). Rising below inflation at 2.5% for the last few months, they haven’t helped paint a positive picture of the wider domestic economy.

The mid-week hump peaks with the big red flag, Inflation Report Hearings (2.15pm GMT Wednesday 21st February). Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee testify at the Treasury with comments expected about the currency markets. Lasting a few hours this can almost guarantee turbulence.

Sterling’s last big gasp of the week is the quarterly Second Estimate GDP (Thursday at 9.30am GMT). Rising more than expected to 0.5% analysts expect that to stabilise with no change forecast.

USD: Yellen’s last stand at the FOMC

Yellen is out. Powell is in. It’s regime change time. But is that boat getting rocked one last time by the ex-most powerful woman in the US economy?

Get the tissues ready to hear her final remarks in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for January (Wednesday 21st February 7.00pm GMT). We don’t expect her to hold back. Everyone and his donkey want to know where the Fed’s interest rate is going next and when. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes give all the juicy details and we want them hot off the press.

Incoming Chair, Jerome Powell, has stressed continuity. He caused a few chuckles with remarks that the Fed works for the “good of all Americans” recently. Some applaud his apparently strong free markets stance but the question remains whether organisations and markets will actually be allowed to fail should things go wrong. Check out Powell’s upcoming speeches to see where the future lies.

CAD & NZD: retail sales

New Zealand’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are forecast to uptick with 1.4% growth. Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are also expected to be stronger at 0.7% growth.

If pundits are correct, this makes the domestic economy look better than some would have hoped. Though every trader knows forecasts can be wrong. Last week’s US Core Retail Sales stagnated at 0.0% rather than the healthier 0.5% growth expected while there was a wince-inducing contraction of -0.2% in the wider Retail Sales. Now there’s an economy that’s suddenly not looking as bright as expected.

Canada’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd February 1.30pm GMT) boosted their economy last month by coming in at twice the forecast with 1.6% growth against the 0.8% predicted. They are cautiously optimistic about wider economic growth and this could be a strengthening economy.
Where Canada is concerned, always remember to track Crude Oil Inventories (Thursday 22nd February 4pm GMT) for its impact on the Loonie. Currently back in the positive after months of reductions, are we seeing a new trend in oil production?

EUR: no weekend off

The European Parliamentary Elections are on Sunday 25th. Expect EUR related markets to pay attention and watch out for possible corrections when markets open on Monday if there are any political upsets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

 

  • Mon Feb 19
    18:45:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Tue Feb 20
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Wed Feb 21
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    14:15:00 GMT GBP Inflation Report Hearings
    19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thu Feb 22
    16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Retail Sales q/q
  • Fri Feb 23
    13:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
  • Sun Feb 25
    09:15:00 GMT EUR Parliamentary Election

Some Markets to Watch…

USDJPY: The Yen broke through significant support and has been trading in a narrow range within last week’s range. The dollar hit a 3-year low against the Yen last week despite surging U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in global equity markets. The move may have been fueled by inflation concerns in the U.S. as well as worries about the huge U.S. current and budget deficits.

 

Bitcoin: BTCUSD is trading above the key $10000 round number. Key levels to watch this week are 12000 (completion of equidistant swing into previous supply/demand) and the 10,000 level.

 

Crude Oil: The chart we looked at last week is still in play. We have a potential ABCD pattern which could complete near the halfway back and previous chart structure at $54.

 


GBPUSD: The bulls still have the ball on cable. We found buyers at 1.38 last week and all eyes are on the 1.40 level to see if we can push higher. 1.45 could be a good target for the bulls to cover.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

 

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

CAD & NZD: retail sales

Let’s go shopping

New Zealand’s Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are forecast to uptick with 1.4% growth. Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd 9.45pm GMT) are also expected to be stronger at 0.7% growth.

If pundits are correct, this makes the domestic economy look better than some would have hoped. Though every trader knows forecasts can be wrong as last week’s US Core Retail Sales showed when they stagnated at 0.0% rather than the healthier 0.5% growth expected as well as the wince-inducing contraction of -0.2% in their wider Retail Sales. Now there’s an economy that’s suddenly not looking as bright as expected.

Canada’s Core Retail Sales (Thursday 22nd February 1.30pm GMT) boosted the economy last month by coming in at twice the forecast with 1.6% growth against the 0.8% predicted. They are cautiously optimistic about wider economic growth and this could be a strengthening economy.

Where Canada is concerned, always remember to track Crude Oil Inventories (Thursday 22nd February 4pm GMT) for its impact on the Loonie. Currently back in the positive after months of reductions, are we seeing a new trend in oil production?

Top Tiql Tips: 5th to 9th Feb

Helpful like a turtle

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

AUD & NZD: where will bank rates go this week?

Opinions are divided over what the Reserve Bank of Australia should do when it shares its latest Cash Rate (Tuesday 6th February 3.30am GMT). Rates haven’t changed since they dropped a quarter of a percentage point in August 2016 and Dr Lowe, RBA Governor, is on record saying they will stay low for years. Some suggest they may even drop as low as 1% but will anything change on Tuesday 6th?

There are some striking similarities between the British and Australian economies at the moment. If you look at them in a certain light, it seems as though they’re doing well. But when you take a closer look, stagnant wages, rising household debt and problems in the housing market make the wider economy seem more like it’s ready to topple at any moment, according to some analysts.

While debt levels remain rather high and wages low, the Bank will remain cautious about making changes that could trigger rising inflation. Traders are likely to be very interested in the Rate Statement (3.30am GMT Tuesday 6th February). Here, the Bank rate committee’s reasons for their decision should reveal where the bank thinks the economy will go next and that could send AUD on a bumpy ride.

Hop over to trade the New Zealand dollar (Wednesday 7th 8pm GMT) for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement and Press Conference. Unchanged since November 2016, there is little sign things will shift this month either. Some radical analysts, such as Eurasia Group in New York, forecast a global crash this year and suggest the NZD will be one of the hardest hit if that happens, but others say all the data received before Christmas points to a reasonably healthy economy. Whatever happens, the Press Conference is likely to give NZD traders some action.

CAD: can employment highs stick around?

Canada is one of many major economies with unemployment figures that haven’t been this good for decades. But that might all be about to change.

December’s 62% employment rate was creeping towards the record high of 2008 (63.70%). It stands far above the average from 1976 to 2017 of 60.29%. Many would say this shows strength in the economy. However, analysts forecast that figures for Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will show a drop of around 2k for in employment and a rise in the Unemployment Rate of 0.1% (Friday 9th 1.30pm GMT) . Not great news for the Loonie, especially when the NAFTA discussions look set to drag on and Trudeau’s policies are being criticised for their effect on the competitiveness of Canada’s economy.

If you’re planning to trade CAD this week, also watch Crude Oil Inventories closely (3.30pm GMT Wednesday 7th) and plan your strategy around the employment data out on Friday. Have fun!

GBP: confusing times for a bank rate announcement

The Bank of England Inflation Report will focus attention (Thursday 8th February 12 noon). Many pundits will hope to see a further reduction in inflation to justify last year’s 0.5% rate set in November. But recent UK factory PMI data suggests the opposite might happen and inflation could rise again. What on earth is going on?

The British economy is suffering an odd mix of rising inflation, rising household debt, depressed wages and low unemployment. If you were to consult an economics textbook, many experts would say this doesn’t happen and it’s certainly scuttled the government’s economic forecasts. Unless wages rise to combat debt, received wisdom says the Bank can’t consider increasing interest rates. But with inflation still standing above target at 3% in December, something needs to happen. There seems to be no good way to jump for Mark Carney, Bank of England Chairman. We are definitely getting out the popcorn for this one.

This week also brings the latest MPC Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate (Thursday 8th February 12 noon). There is a small chance of a surprise rate rise but this could spell disaster for UK workers. Some might say “I told you so” but that wouldn’t be helpful. Mark Carney has a tightrope to walk this week. Will he manage it?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

  • Mon Feb 05
    16:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • Tue Feb 06
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    03:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Rate Statement
    03:30:00 GMT AUD Cash Rate
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
  • Wed Feb 07
    15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    20:00:00 GMT NZD Official Cash Rate
    20:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
    20:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
    1:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Press Conference
  • Thu Feb 08
    00:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
    09:00:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
    12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • Fri Feb 09
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    00:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
    13:30:00 GMT CAD Unemployment Rate

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has depreciated by 12 percent in the last 24 hours, according to data source CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has traded at new 2018 lows today. There may be more pain in store for crypto bulls or it could confound the greatest amount of participants and begin to climb again. The chart below highlights some possible areas of interest for traders.

Gold: The recent highs of 1375 still look achievable but it would be healthy for a market which has moved like this to retrace somewhat. The half way back near previous supply and the round number might be an interesting level to watch.

WTI Crude: Its all about the $65 level on this market. We are trading near some key chart structure at this level. As with Gold, it would be reasonable to think a market which has moved as impulsively as this one has would see some sort of retrace to remain healthy. The $54/$55 zone with the half way back and chart structure may be an interesting level to watch should we see some sort of move down.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

CAD: can record high employment continue?

Confident Canada

Canada is one of many major economies with unemployment figures that haven’t been this good for decades. But that might all be about to change.

December’s 62% employment rate was creeping towards the record high of 2008 (63.70%). It stands far above the average from 1976 to 2017 of 60.29%. Many would say this shows strength in the economy. However, analysts forecast that figures out on Friday 9th at 1.30pm GMT for Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will show a drop of around 2k for in employment and a rise in the Unemployment Rate of 0.1%.  Not great news for the Loonie, especially when the NAFTA discussions look set to drag on and Trudeau’s policies are being criticised for their effect on the competitiveness of Canada’s economy.

If you’re planning to trade CAD this week, also watch Crude Oil Inventories closely at 3.30pm GMT Wednesday 7th and plan your strategy around the employment data out on Friday. Have fun!

Top Tiql Tips: 15th to 19th Jan 2018

Sharing tips makes us happy bunnies

Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

CAD: Bank Rate Thursday 

Traders get all excited when a national bank announces its latest rate and this week it’s Canada’s turn (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th). Its key Overnight Rate currently stands at 1.00% though forecasters predict a rise to 1.25% on the back of strong hints from banking figures. The last change was in September last year when it also rose by 0.25% from 0.75%.
It’s likely the rise will have been priced in so traders are more interested in the Rate Statement (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th), which might give insights into the reasons behind the decision and reveal any discord among the committee members. The Press Conference (4.15pm GMT Wednesday 17th) will be the most volatile time as the BoC Governor fields questions from the press.

CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

The world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies this week. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7% ( 7am GMT Thursday 18th).

At the same time Industrial Production is released (7am GMT Thursday 18th). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. It looks like Industrial Production will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any deviation from this will impact widely.
The Chinese currency is increasingly important after recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017. Definitely one to watch.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (4pm GMT Thursday 18th). AUD is also related with a couple of good events this week.

USD: What would MLK say?

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday (Monday 15th January) – Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. After recent comments about Haiti and Africa, some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke. But he likes a day off as much as the next man.

US currency and commodities traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th January). This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Unemployment Claims (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th) will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reins of the economy next month.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

Tue Jan 16
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
Wed Jan 17 
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
◦ 16:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Press Conference
Thu Jan 18 
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
◦ 16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
Fri Jan 19 
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: 13000 was defended late last week and BTCUSD is presently trading just above 14000. Where to next for this crypto? Who knows in the short term. We have resistance at 15,000 and previous demand at 13,000 and 12,000; these are the levels we are watching as we go into the trading week.

Brent Oil: $70 looks like an interesting level to watch on this market where we had previous demand there from 2015. $65 may support with previous recent demand.

Crude: Crude oil is also at a potential decision point. Will the bulls push on or is this the level sellers come in?

EURUSD: The euro has been well bought over the last few days. For now, the 1.23 level is key and we have seen some of the longs covering their positions here.

Gold: Looks like a retest of the highs is on the cards if the bulls can keep on the pressure. The chart below highlights some support and resistance levels, which may be of interest.

USDCAD: All eyes on 1.24 to see where it goes from here. More dollar weakness and we may see this level breached this week.

GBPUSD: 1.38 is a key level this week. We are testing the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and an old low made before the Brexit vote. This drive higher has been aided by the weak dollar and some recent news on Brexit negotiations.

USDJPY: the Yen is testing a key level now at 110.75. Below this, we might expect a test of the round number 110 and if we get a deeper correction, the 107.5 where we found demand before. Any trades back into the consolidation and 113 might provide resistance.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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CAD: Bank Rate week

Hope the Rate is steadier than this moose

Traders get all excited when a national bank announces its latest rate and this week it’s Canada’s turn. On Wednesday 17th at 3pm GMT the Bank of Canada announces if its Overnight Rate will change. Currently standing at 1.00% forecasters predict a rise to 1.25% on the back of strong hints from banking figures. The last change was in September last year when it also rose by 0.25% from 0.75%.

It’s likely the rise will have been priced in so traders are more interested in the Rate Statement, also Wednesday 17th at 3pm GMT, which might give insights into the reasons behind the decision and reveal any discord among the committee members. The Press Conference, at around 3.45pm on Wednesday, will be the most volatile time as the BoC Governor fields questions from the press.