Top Tiql Tips: 15th to 19th Jan 2018

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Your free guide to the markets this week!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

CAD: Bank Rate Thursday 

Traders get all excited when a national bank announces its latest rate and this week it’s Canada’s turn (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th). Its key Overnight Rate currently stands at 1.00% though forecasters predict a rise to 1.25% on the back of strong hints from banking figures. The last change was in September last year when it also rose by 0.25% from 0.75%.
It’s likely the rise will have been priced in so traders are more interested in the Rate Statement (3pm GMT Wednesday 17th), which might give insights into the reasons behind the decision and reveal any discord among the committee members. The Press Conference (4.15pm GMT Wednesday 17th) will be the most volatile time as the BoC Governor fields questions from the press.

CNY: the world’s production powerhouse

The world will learn the latest GDP figures for one of the world’s biggest economies this week. As a production powerhouse China’s consumption of resources directly impacts commodity prices, like oil, and other economies – Australia, we see you down there. Last quarter GDP grew by 6.8%. This time its forecast to dip to 6.7% ( 7am GMT Thursday 18th).

At the same time Industrial Production is released (7am GMT Thursday 18th). This is compared to figures from the same time last year. It looks like Industrial Production will remain the same at 6.1% compared to a year ago. It’s the main factor in the Chinese economy so any deviation from this will impact widely.
The Chinese currency is increasingly important after recent news that Germany’s central bank has started to include renminbi in its reserves. China keeps a tight rein on the exchange rate and the currency strengthened by nearly 7% against the dollar in 2017. Definitely one to watch.

Tiql players who want to start playing the yuan should watch commodities news, like oil. Crude Oil Inventories are one indicator they can also play (4pm GMT Thursday 18th). AUD is also related with a couple of good events this week.

USD: What would MLK say?

Martin Luther King (MLK) is the father of the anti-segregation movement. He even has his own national holiday (Monday 15th January) – Martin Luther King Day. It’s a Bank Holiday in the USA so the country will be rejoicing in its anti-racist hero instead of trading the markets for a day. After recent comments about Haiti and Africa, some would use that as an opportunity to make a cheap Trump joke. But he likes a day off as much as the next man.

US currency and commodities traders will be back in action from Tuesday when the biggest market action will come later in the week. USD traders can get stuck in with Building Permits (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th January). This data gives analysts a good insight into future construction activity. Home building relies on a strong economy for a supply of buyers so any increase in the number of permits may suggest confidence. Current predictions suggest a slight drop (1.30M to 1.29M).

Unemployment Claims (1.30pm GMT Thursday 18th) will shed light on the number of people newly out of work. Early forecasts are positive with a fall of 10K predicted, down from 261K. This is good news for incoming Fed Reserve boss, Powell, who takes the reins of the economy next month.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:

Tue Jan 16
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
Wed Jan 17 
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
◦ 15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
◦ 16:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Press Conference
Thu Jan 18 
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
◦ 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
◦ 13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
◦ 16:00:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
Fri Jan 19 
◦ 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin: 13000 was defended late last week and BTCUSD is presently trading just above 14000. Where to next for this crypto? Who knows in the short term. We have resistance at 15,000 and previous demand at 13,000 and 12,000; these are the levels we are watching as we go into the trading week.

Brent Oil: $70 looks like an interesting level to watch on this market where we had previous demand there from 2015. $65 may support with previous recent demand.

Crude: Crude oil is also at a potential decision point. Will the bulls push on or is this the level sellers come in?

EURUSD: The euro has been well bought over the last few days. For now, the 1.23 level is key and we have seen some of the longs covering their positions here.

Gold: Looks like a retest of the highs is on the cards if the bulls can keep on the pressure. The chart below highlights some support and resistance levels, which may be of interest.

USDCAD: All eyes on 1.24 to see where it goes from here. More dollar weakness and we may see this level breached this week.

GBPUSD: 1.38 is a key level this week. We are testing the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and an old low made before the Brexit vote. This drive higher has been aided by the weak dollar and some recent news on Brexit negotiations.

USDJPY: the Yen is testing a key level now at 110.75. Below this, we might expect a test of the round number 110 and if we get a deeper correction, the 107.5 where we found demand before. Any trades back into the consolidation and 113 might provide resistance.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
 Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!
Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Top Tiql Tips: your weekly market guide (8th to 12th Jan)

Here’s to a new year of trading in 2018

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sending you this free guide to the markets and highlighting some dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: PPI & CPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) (Thursday 11th January 1.30pm GMT) has been stable at 0.4% for three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Friday 12th January 1.30pm GMT) has been rather more volatile with no clear trend for many years.

Both data impact how the markets view USD because of their connection to the domestic economy, which is the key factor in USD value. PPI impacts inflation and it’s interesting to note recent news, according to the FT, that market investors are currently choosing funds that protect against inflation. The target rate of 2% inflation is close to how things stand so the forecast seems reasonably steady for Federal Reserve Bank’s new Chair, Powell, when he starts next month.

We are sure Powell will be keeping a close eye on the less-predictable CPI due the Reserve Bank’s mandate to contain inflation. A low figure this week will probably be seen by most as a good result.

Oil: politics affects prices
This week Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 10th January 3.30pm GMT) is likely to see another drop but what that does to USD remains to be seen.

In 2017 OPEC worked hard to manipulate the price of oil by agreeing to reduce production levels. Other like-minded oil producers, such as Russia, joined them. Stock levels were high for a long time and prices didn’t recover as well as they’d have liked leading to a change in how things work in Saudi Arabia. This hit the news last week as 11 Saudi princes were arrested for demonstrating against their newly imposed utility bills. Life is so hard as a modern Middle East prince. So hard.

There are mixed views on whether oil production overall will rise this year and that is a determining factor in price. To ensure its arms sales to the Middle East go smoothly, Russia is unlikely to renege on its deal with OPEC. Other oil-producing countries face war, poor infrastructure and natural declines in production leading some to declare supplies will fall and prices will increase.

On the other hand, the US has not been working with OPEC to reduce output and shale production is on the rise boosting US oil inventories. Trump’s America First policy means it is likely to push forward with production and that could keep prices low. This would be good news for US domestic gas guzzlers as well as manufacturers in the heartland of Trump’s power base. In an election year, he is sure to have this in mind.

GBP: Manufacturing Production monthly
Post-Brexit Britain has been on a bumpy economic ride. Confusion over what Brexit actually means and posturing in the EU negotiations has resulted in nervous markets. While UK unemployment is at its lowest for 40 years, productivity appears so subdued that the Bank of England raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.

It would be fair to say that the UK has been the slowest to recover from the crash of 2008 of all the advanced economies. This week Manufacturing Production monthly (Wednesday 10th January 9.30am GMT) will shed light on progress. If the Brits start making more and selling more both domestically and internationally, some of those jitters might calm down. And for the last 3 months manufacturing production has been rising nicely. Maybe the EU market isn’t such a big deal?

Only joking – news that broke on 7th January 2018 suggested UK importers may face massive increases in upfront cost increases. And it’s a shame then that analysts saw December’s Manufacturing Production monthly figure of 0.7% as something of a peak. They reckon it is going to fall back to as low as 0.1%. Let’s be positive – at least it is in the black. But if they’re right or if it’s even worse than that, markets really won’t like it. Manufacturing Production makes up about 80% of total industrial production and it’s quick to react to consumer conditions. All in all, GBP is starting 2018 on the back foot.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Mon Jan 08
    • 15:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
  • Wed Jan 10
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thu Jan 11
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
  • Fri Jan 12
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin almost reached the $20,000 level before falling off dramatically before the end of the year. Right now we are ping-ponging in a range between $13,000 and $17,000. Any breaks below the $13,000 support and $12,000 and $11,000 has attracted buyers before.

USDJPY: This pair has been moving in a range now for some time. We have resistance at 113.75 and significant previous demand at 1114.50. 112 is supporting with the 200 simple moving average close by.

Crude Oil: Looking at the weekly and we can can there may be some supply near $63. We might see some tactical shorting here but this looks bullish above $60.

EURUSD: we have come off of the highs with sellers coming in at the August highs. A retracement to the halfway back and previous demand may see this pair pull back to 118 before retesting the highs.

GBPUSD: Cable is still technically in a channel making higher highs and higher lows. There could be some unfinished business at 1.38 on this pair, which was the support level dramatically broken on the Brexit vote. If you’d been long on this pair for a while, it might be a level to cover. The bears might be eyeing this level as well as a point of interest for a short play.​

Gold: Gold bugs will be bullish on this market above 1300. We have moved back into the channel again and the recent highs of 1357 could be retested. Below 1300, this starts to look bearish and we may start to see a deeper correction.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

GBP: manufacturing production monthly

Confused?

Post-Brexit Britain has been on a bumpy economic ride. Confusion over what Brexit actually means and posturing in the EU negotiations has resulted in jittery markets that get easily spooked. While unemployment is at its lowest for 40 years, productivity appears so subdued that the Bank of England raised rates in November for the first time in a decade.

It would be fair to say that the UK has been the slowest to recover of all the advanced economies from the crash of 2008. If the Brits start making more and selling more both domestically and internationally (Manufacturing Production monthly on Wednesday 10th January at 9.30am GMT), some of those jitters might calm down. And for the last 3 months manufacturing production has been rising nicely. Maybe the EU market isn’t such a big deal?

Only joking – news on 7th suggested UK importers may face massive increases in upfront cost increases adding fuel to the bonfire that is the British economy. And it’s a shame then that analysts predict that December’s Manufacturing Production monthly figure of 0.7% was something of a peak. They reckon manufacturing production is going to fall back to as low as 0.1%. Let’s be positive – at least it is in the black. But if they’re right or if it’s even worse than that, markets really won’t like it. Manufacturing production makes up about 80% of total industrial production and it’s quick to react to consumer conditions, like earnings. All in all, GBP is starting 2018 on the back foot.

2017: 3 events that shook the trading world

2017 – surprise!

Are natural disasters in the top three?

Mother nature showed her power this year sending Hurricanes Maria, Harvey and Irma across US territory and beyond, a massive earthquake to Mexico, monsoon flooding in Bangladesh. mudslides in Colombia and landslides in Sierra Leone. The human toll has been unfathomable and the markets didn’t like them either, though the US administration seems to think we don’t need to worry. But these weren’t the biggest events to hit the markets in 2017.

Bitcoin shock: a strong contender

December has brought a late contender to event of the year with the Bitcoin surge. Prompted by the cryptocurrency’s ascendency to two major futures exchanges in the U.S., investors flooded to buy Bitcoin though a few days after the launch prices looked like they were subsiding.

Sky-rocketing prices

Bitcoin reached a high of $19,375 on the Coinbase exchange on December 18th as trading launched on the giant CME exchange and its Chicago rival CboE Global Markets. The decision to list the currency legitimised Bitcoin and raised its profile enormously. Since the announcement was made, demand pushed the price through ceiling after ceiling and the media shouted frantic headlines warning potential investors about bubbles. At the time of writing, there has been no crash.

The problem with Bitcoin

The problem with Bitcoin for some is that it is outside the control of the existing authorities. Like the internet under net neutrality is equally accessible by all, Bitcoin is not the currency of one nation or even one region. It has no physical form and none of the established national or international authorities are in control of the supply. They don’t like that.

Bitcoin pros and cons

Bitcoin is limited by design to a maximum of 21 million coins. Supporters see it as a natural global successor to national physical currencies and exchange rates. Features of cryptocurrencies called blockchain will mean they can also securely replace other functions in banking and business so the potential is astronomical. Critics, including Singapore’s financial watchdog, warn that the lack of physical properties mean it is inherently valueless and investors will lose out when they come to withdraw their funds. Some say these critics are running scared.

Should everyone take Bitcoin seriously now?

The short answer is yes. In stark contrast to the doom and gloom of the threatened financial system, Ronnie Moas, the independent analyst who forecast this rise, now says he sees values reaching a meteoric $400,000 in 2018 saying the “mind-blogging supply and demand imbalance is what is going to drive the higher price.” He was right before; will he be right again? Either way, plenty are jumping on the bandwagon.

Brexit: the Brits want out

A review of market-moving events in 2017 has to include the Brexit tidal wave, which continues to punish GBP markets. Brexit is the snappy moniker bestowed by the British press on the British exit from the European Union decided by referendum in June 2016. 2017 has been a battle waged between varying factions in the UK government, who are justifiably concerned that washing their laundry in public puts them at a disadvantage in negotiations over the terms of the exit.

Europe, 20 June 2016
Brexit.
Markus Grolik/Cartoon Movement/Hollandse Hoogte

Who is responsible for Brexit?

In 2016, rampant propaganda, fervent canvassing and decidedly dodgy claims resulted in the United Kingdom agreeing to crash out of the thriving economic and political union that has blossomed since the 1970s. Why would one of the world’s biggest economies decide to commit economic suicide? Good question and it’s one many continue to scratch their heads over. The pound plummeted immediately sending imported product prices rocketing and the beleaguered currency has failed to yet make a full recovery over 18 months later.

What’s next for GBP?

The future for the British currency is unclear. A large part of its economy is funded by revenue from the City of London. However, many international banks are setting up subsidiaries in Frankfurt and other key European cities, all keen to become the new home of passporting. This key facility was located in the UK capital and allowed banks to work across Europe without needing authorisation in each individual country. It is highly unlikely passporting will continue to run from London when it leaves the Union and the banks are likely to cut many jobs and reduce their contribution to the economy in the UK from then on.

Will Brexit be calmer in 2018?

Political news around the exit negotiations are likely to impact both sterling and the Euro. Inside the Union, leaders will be keen to ensure Great Britain isn’t seen to get a good deal in order to deter other nations from making similar exit plans. It will be essential that countries who are in look better off than those who opt out. It’s looking cold outside the E.U and Britain will need to negotiate individual trade agreements with everyone. The deadline is 2019 so 2018 will be a rollercoaster ride through negotiations.

Trump

That word has so many meanings. It can be the winning card in a game. It can mean doing better than your rival. It can mean something altogether more foul-smelling connected to digestion. But this year Trump gained a new meaning as Donald became the 45th POTUS in an election that put the Brexit Leavers campaign to shame.

Sheneman Dec 2017

How did Donald Trump win?

Donald won by wooing the electorate that mattered in a battle against Washington insider, Hillary Clinton. While the rest of the world saw a privileged white man; a man with inherited money that he frittered away on poor business deals who was paying his way to the top spot on the Republican ticket, voters in key States believed the nationalist ‘America First’ propaganda and insular rhetoric pouring from his Twitter feed. Despite winning fewer votes than his rival, Donald won the White House. Look up the electoral college system if you’re keen to see how it’s rigged set up.

What did the markets think of Trump?

Trump revealed a change in attitude from the markets towards geopolitical risk. The shockwaves from the election were relatively minor. Although the rising value of safe haven gold suggests they’re not entirely keen.

Markets and politics

Since Trump was elected, the markets have learned to weather the Twitter spats between Kim and Trump, watched the military posturing across the east Asian region with a bucket of popcorn, ignored the implications of Russian interference in key Western democracies, and will see the year out analysing Trump’s ham-fisted diplomacy in Jerusalem and the U.N. with great interest. Interestingly, at no point have any of the indices tanked suggesting there may be a growing separation between geopolitics and market valuation. Or things haven’t got crazy enough to worry them yet.

2017 was characterised by massive geopolitical upheaval that didn’t always translate into market movement. But the biggest upset for the year was Bitcoin. Will other cryptocurrencies now gain value? Will the bubble burst or is BTC finding its true level? Let’s see in 2018.

 

Top Tiql Tips: 12th to 15th Dec 2017

On the 12th day of Christmas

With only a few weeks until the end of the year, we’ve giving you this free guide to help you to earn more with TIQL. Covering the markets and dates to watch this week, economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: FOMC December Rate Hike
The vast majority of USD traders expect the FOMC to raise rates from 1.25% to 1.5% (Wednesday 13th 7pm GMT) so that’s already been priced in. What traders now want to know is where policy will be heading in 2018, which is a far less certain question.

Federal Chair Yellen steps down in February at the end of her first term so other voices are now becoming more significant. Jerome Powell will step up but there are also other key vacancies in the Bank and this leaves policy direction harder to forecast.

So far, officials have seemed confident of the dollar’s recovery so more interest rate rises are likely to be mentioned. Some even say there could be as many as three or four in 2018. The fly in the ointment is the persistently low inflation and concerns that the recovery is weaker than it appears. The Press Conference (13th 7.30pm) should reveal key points and see the dollar traded hard.

Global: Libor Bank Rate
The London Interbank Offered Rate is a key figure in the global banking industry used to price more than $350tn of financial products around the world. It’s the average figure at which banks are prepared to lend each other money and was established in London in 1986. There are actually a number of Libors and their rates often change daily.

The problem is that the 2008 scandals surrounding setting the rate mean it’s on its way out as no-one wants to be involved in setting it. It was rate-rigging in the City of London that is heavily linked to the crash. There is a new looming concern about what it will be replaced by.

This week a new CHF 3-month Libor Rate will be set (Thursday 14th 8.30am GMT) and it is a red-flag event in finance. Standing at -0.75%, there are conflicting views about what will happen. The rate is negative due to the ECB’s rather unconventional reflationary policy. Expect the EUR and GBP to react to any significant change.

GBP: BoE base rate
This week we’re all about the rates and the third of our key event posts focuses on the volatile currency of the year, GBP. The Bank of England reveals its latest base rate (currently 0.50%) only hours after Libor (Thursday 14th 12pm GMT), so expect volatility for the duration. The MPC is likely to return a 0-0-9 vote against raising rates (against 7-0-2 when it raised them previously) so the focus will be on the Monetary Policy Summary to see what the Committee’s views are on the future.

45 minutes later the ECB reveals its Minimum Bid Rate (Thursday 14th 12.45pm GMT), which could affect the EURGBP pair. As the two zones edge closer to a Brexit deal, traders have reacted well reaching a high not seen for six months last week so Thursday could see a lot of GBP action.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Dec 12
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
    • 19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    • 22:15:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • Wed Dec 13
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
    • 15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    • 19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    • 19:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
  • Thu Dec 14
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    • 00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    • 09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    • 12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    • 12:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
    • 13:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    • 17:25:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

AUDUSD: Although this pair is looking heavy, the Aussie is at a key technical level with previous demand, the half way back is nearby and an ascending trend line. The 0.75 price is a key level to watch. Keep an eye on any moves on the commodities such as gold, which will impact this FX pair.

BTCUSD: After an eye-watering retracement last week where we saw $13000 tested, it looks like bitcoin may try and test the all-time highs once again.

EURUSD: Pundits have been calling the end of Euro for some time but this pair remains in the range for now. We are watching the edges of the consolidation for the market to tip its hand.

Gold: Have we broken down or are we just running the stops at these lows? Daily closes under 1250 and we could see a deeper move down. Closes above 1260 and the bulls may try for some of the higher numbers.

USDJPY: We remain within the yearly range for now. The main levels to watch are 110.50 and 114.50 to see if these are defended as they have been before.

USDCAD: The lows held last week after that very bearish daily candle. It looks like the highs may be tested and we have the equidistant swing completing into the 200 SMA.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Play TIQL or follow us on Facebook or Twitter

TIQL is operated by Nous Global Limited, c/o ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Ltd, First Floor, Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, IM2 4RW, Isle of Man

Nous Global Limited is proud to be regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Supervision Commission under a licence issued under the Online Gambling Regulation Act 2001 on 12 April 2016

Tiql Tips: 9th to 13th Oct

High five!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Bank Holiday Monday: who gets one?
Columbus Day anyone? Well, yes, if you’re in the US it is and that means no trading. Other lucky people enjoying days off include the Canadians with Thanksgiving and Japan with Sports Day.

FOMC: December rate rise?
The FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday 11th 6pm GMT) should shed light on the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but surprisingly low inflation has put a spanner in the works. Higher employment and a healthy economy usually means inflation but it’s not hitting targets so the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious. But there are many voices who would like to see a complete change of policy fearing that any rate rises at all could stifle growth.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. This month, CPI (Friday 13th 12.30pm GMT) is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures (Thursday 12th 12.30pm GMT) to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

GBP: a troubled currency
The British currency has taken a pounding since Brexit and it looks like things are sliding further.

Political uncertainty looms as Prime Minister May’s future is in question. She suffered an excrutiating party conference plus Brexit negotiations are painfully slow with both sides starting to become entrenched in opposition making the likelihood of an agreement being reached before the 2019 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Bad relations and no trade deal with their closest and largest trading partner could be around the corner for the UK. This would mean rising trade costs in the midterm future. The rats are deserting the ship as a growing number of international banks are renting increasing amounts of office space in Frankfurt. It looks like the City of London party is coming to an end.To finish things off, ratings agency, Standards & Poor, are questioning the country’s ability to withstand an interest rate increase.

Mark Carney, the Canadian Bank of England Chair, would be wise to check his passport is up-to-date if Manufacturing Production monthly change (Tuesday 10th 8.30am GMT) comes in under par. Last month showed a healthy 0.5% increase against the 0.3% predicted and everyone will be hoping that is the start of a positive trend. The Goods Trade Balance (Tuesday 8.30am GMT) and BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday 12th 8.30am GMT) should both make for interesting reading. Supporters of a rate rise will be looking for another drop in the Goods Trade Balance, currently -11.6B, while the markets see rising debt levels as signs of confidence in consumer and business spending. It’s unclear why they don’t see it as a sign of desperate attempts to stay afloat but that’s an economics lesson for another day.

Oil: a storm brewing
Has the tide turned for oil? After hitting well above $50 a barrel at the end of September, prices dropped down near to $49 as some analysts said they were concerned the price has risen too far, too fast.

Adding to depreciatory fears, Tropical Storm Nate led to shutdowns in the US Gulf oil production region as they head into the traditional maintenance period. On top of that, some of the main US shale producers are set for record outputs this month and, worryingly, US crude stockpiles are currently more than 70 million barrels over their 5-year average adding further downward pressure on prices. Traders will pay close attention when the latest weekly Crude Oil Inventories data is revealed (Thursday 12th 3pm GMT). Any increase could be taken rather badly.

But that’s not all. Adding more fuel to the fire, Libya’s just opened up oil fields that have been shut for a long time while OPEC’s main producers like Saudi Arabia have all upped their output despite renewing their agreement to keep a lid on production.

It looks like it could be a race to the bottom for oil this week and many investors will be thinking about cashing in before prices sink too far. The question is who would buy in this climate?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 10th October
    08:30:00 GMT 2017 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
  • Wednesday 11th October
    18:00:00 GMT 2017 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday 12th October
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD PPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
    14:30:00 GMT 2017 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    15:00:00 GMT 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • ​Friday 13th October
    ​12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

S&P 500 and Dow: The US indices continue to grind higher on low volatility. The charts below show the support lines the buyers may be watching to maintain their bullish consensus. For now, all these charts are pointing up with any retracements being bought.


GBPUSD: We saw some selling-off last week with a daily close below 1.32500. 1.29 looks vulnerable if we can hold below the 1.32 round number.

Crude: $50 is the line in the sand for this market. We have found some support at $49.35 which is at the half way back of the recent move up. Below $50, the bears have the ball on this market and a deeper move testing some of the most recent lows could be on the cards.

Gold: Gold has been rotating in an upwards channel and there may be some symmetrical patterns in play. A hold above $1264 at the 61.8 Fibonacci and we might see this market rotate higher to the top of the channel. Any daily closes below this price and outside of this channel may see some more sellers come in.

USDCAD: We are at an interesting price point here. Any breaks below support at 1.2400 and the bears might have this. Daily closes above 1.26 and the bulls might try for 1.2750.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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Is EUR easy money coming to an end?

This is how it’s done

There are murmurs and whispers in the ECB corridors of power that, while Thursday’s ECB Minimum Bid Rate is likely to stay low, there may be signs that the current bond-buying policy could start to slow down later in the year. With opposing pressures between weaker economies and Germany’s domestic market, nothing will happen quickly but any change in the official line will be pounced on as Draghi takes credit for the upswing in the Eurozone economy.

The ECB Press Conference at 1.30pm GMT will have traders ready to act as journalists press officials for more information. Whether or not they agree that cutting back bond-buying is the right strategy remains to be seen.

EURUSD FX pair
The EURUSD has an ABCD pattern completing into recent demand

EURUSD is at a significant resistance zone with previous chart structure and the 161 ABCD pattern completing into 1.1280. Drilling down into the lower time frames, there is possibly intermediate support at 1.1235 and a possible stronger case for support at 1.12 which has the half way back and the completion of an equidistant swing nearby.

EURUSD chart
1 hour chart on EURUSD

Casting its shadow over the EUR is the UK elections also on Thursday 8th. Results won’t be in until the early hours of Friday but with strikingly different attitudes towards Brexit negotiations between the two main parties, currency traders will be watching the exit polls all day.

It’s a rocky road ahead for EUR and GBP

The next two years look decidedly rocky for both the Euro and Sterling as Brexit revelations send shockwaves through markets already battle-weary from the shocks of 2016. The future for the pound especially seems slippery at best.

Adding fuel to the fire, one headline in the British press today reads “EU financial centres vie to poach tens of thousands of City jobs.” Yesterday, Lloyds of London announced it was setting up ‘a subsidiary branch’ in Brussels. I would imagine that subsidiary will mimic many of the HQ activities within the next two years. For those in the City of London, it’s like seeing the battle star being built while watching from the planet Alderaan.

Many financial institutions are creating new branches inside the EU to ensure their operations are not disrupted when the UK exits the single market. It’s not hard to see those operations poised to take over when Brexit seals the U.K.’s fate and slams the financial market door in their face. European cities like Paris, Frankfurt and even Dublin would welcome the economic benefits currently enjoyed by London as host to the financial centre of Europe. The question is which one will win.

EURUSD FX pair
The EURUSD is back under pressure again. At support

News like this is likely to only add to the weight of the pound as it sinks further against the dollar and other major currencies.

Article 50 29th March – where will sterling go?

PM May invoking article 50

It’s finally here. The date has been set and Prime Minister May will trigger Article 50 on Wednesday 29th March. The markets are not likely to treat sterling kindly as they set course to rip their economy away from the other 27 member states. The Brits may like to indulge in empire nostalgia, but the modern reality is a little different.

This week also delivers the UK Current Account on Friday at 9.30am. analysts predict a significant fall in the deficit from -25.5B to -16.3B. If this pans out, the markets could react more positively. Though the looming financial implications of a hard Brexit may add caution to traders’ decisions.

 

A positive attitude from Germany

a positive German Shepherd GIPHY

The Euro is facing tough times at the moment. Brexit will be triggered by the British this week and the French may well elect a nationalist far right president in the next few months. Campaigning is well under way and National Front leader Le Pen has been to meet the Russian president, Putin. The European project is in trouble.

But hooray for Germany and their stalwart steady production base. Today saw the release of the German IFO Business Report: a well-respected survey of builders, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. They delivered a resoundingly positive 112.3 against the predicted 111.2 suggesting they are not fazed by either political situation.

Is it time to relax? Not really. As we get closer to the French election run-offs on 23rd April and actual election on 7th May, the markets may start to feel less secure. However, if the dollar slides more against the Euro today, some say the large continental currency may start looking more appealing in the short term.