We’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week to help you to earn more with TIQL. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.
USD: the week ahead
The big ticket calendar event is the ever volatile Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 8th Dec 1.30pm GMT), which is forecast to slow down by over a fifth this month growing by only 200k. As the Reserve Bank has set itself a target of zero unemployment, any reduction is likely to be taken badly.
Despite last month’s surprise employment drop, the dollar remained bullish to the end of that trading week. This time we have the recent tax bill, which continues to boost US markets at the start of this week. Both signs suggest there is a lot of support for the dollar available.
Things that may wobble USD markets this week include the political powder kegs of North Korea, Trump’s twitter feed, and Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 6th Dec 3.30pm GMT).
AUD: which way is the economy heading?
The antipodean currency is often buffeted by changes in USD, CNY and other major trading partners making it a fun one to trade. This week offers some homegrown events that could get the markets excited.
There is a chance the Current Account will improve by nearly 1 billion USD (Tuesday 5th 12.30am GMT), which would start the week well. Retail Sales (Tuesday 5th 12.30am GMT) are also forecast to improve (0.0% to 0.3% growth), while the big news is the Rate Statement (3.30am GMT Tuesday 5th). In October, this was kept at a record low of 1.5% and there are mixed views on what will happen this week though most suspect it will stay the same. The argument is that low rates are stimulating the economy.
Later in the week, GDP is forecast to drop by 0.1% to 0.7% (Wednesday 6th 12.30am GMT) and the Trade Balance looks set to shrink by around 0.3 billion or so (Thursday 7th 12.30am GMT). With mutterings about a recession or even depression in pundit circles, there is talk of a banking bubble built on a property bubble on a mining bubble on a commodities bubble all fuelled by a Chinese bubble. Is the Aussie economy about to go pop?
BTC: boom or bubble?
You’d have to be living under a rock to have missed the meteoric rise and fall of Bitcoin over the last few days. Hitting an incredible $11,000 peak on Wednesday 29th before falling back, the currency is climbing again (Monday 4th December) with no-one sure where it will go next. Debate has raged about the nature of the movement with many warning against investment, among them the Bank of France’s Governor saying “Bitcoin is a speculative asset and people who invest in it do so at their own risk”.
There are clearly fortunes to be made (and lost) in the gold rush for the cryptocurrency, which has no tangible asset form. With a global value outpacing that of some international banks, Bitcoin even outstrips some economies, such as New Zealand.
For market speculation with a thrill, and a sizeable risk, there is little to beat Bitcoin trading this week. US regulators have recently given the green light to futures trading on the asset adding further legitimacy to the flag-bearer of cryptocurrencies. However you feel about it compared to national currencies or commodities, this is a market worth exploring and open seven days a week.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Tue Dec 05
00:15:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
00:30:00 GMT AUD Current Account
00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
03:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Rate Statement
09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- Wed Dec 06
00:30:00 GMT AUD GDP q/q
13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
15:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
15:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
- Thu Dec 07
00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
16:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- Fri Dec 08
09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
Some Markets to Watch…
BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its drive higher. We touched $11,800 over a volatile weekend of trading. $9000 and $8000 would be key areas to watch on any retraces which could be fast and deep on this market.
Crude Oil: As long as this market trades over the $55 with support from the 200 SMA and previous chart structure, it looks like this market might try and run the stops at the recent highs. There may be supply higher up given the price structure from the sell off in 2015. The bears will likely be watching the $58 and $60 levels. Any daily closes below $55 and the bears may try for a deeper move down to next potential demand zone at $52/$53.
EURUSD: While supported above 1.17, this may grind higher. We have a recent failed head and shoulders pattern which may still have some traders stuck short looking to get out.
GBPUSD: Cable has tested the old halfway back and continues to grind higher. The 61.8 is near 1.3860, which was a previous demand zone that was quickly broken through on Brexit news. The market may have some unfinished business at that price point. For now, above 1.32, this looks like it might continue to grinder higher. Any daily breaks below this level and the 200 SMA might beckon this market.
Gold: The shiny metal continues to move in the range. We have the 200 SMA and previous demand providing some support; for now, the technical picture has it consolidating and supported above the 1260.
USDCAD: The loonie has made a double top of sorts and has found some support at the previous supply zone (now acting as support) at 1.2650. For now, we are in a consolidation zone, any breaks down and the next major support zone might be 1.24.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.
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