Can the US do it again? Last month’s Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 6th 1.30pm GMT) went up by over 30% – increasing by 312K from the 239K rise in February. What makes this more impressive is that analysts saw a drop in the employment rise. This month they see an increase of 190k on the cards, which will make a solid run of 6 months of employment growth.
Forecasts also indicate growth in the Average Hourly Earnings (Friday 6th 1,30pm GMT) from 0.1% to 0.3%, which will be welcome news for US citizens struggling with high living costs and debts. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 2nd 3pm GMT) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 4th 3pm GMT) are both looking healthy with scores safely above the 50 line between positive and negative outlooks – 60.1 and 59.2 respectively. Even if they waver, they’re unlikely to move far.
Overall, there is a positive outlook for the US economy when looking at this week’s data. But don’t forget the looming trade war sparked by Trump’s steel tariffs. Keep an eye on his Twitter feed and watch for responses from the EU, China, India and other major trading partners.