USD: wobbling confidence?

Just your average American Joe

A lot has changed since last month’s CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday 27th at 3pm GMT. Not least Trump’s steel tariff that threatens to start a global trade war with traditional trade partners like Europe etc. So has this potential trade disaster affected consumer confidence?

Forecasts suggest the American public feel just great with the index rising from 130.8 to 131.2. To be fair, asking 5,000 average Joes with limited access to expert data or even international news what they think will happen to employment rates, business conditions and the overall economic outlook isn’t necessarily the best way to judge what will really happen. But traders love it so it will affect the markets.

Also big on the USD markets this week is Final GDP, out Wednesday 28th at 1.30pm GMT. Dropping towards target by 0.1% to 3.2% in December, forecasts are for another drop to 2.7%, though this is a rise of 0.2% from the actual Preliminary GDP results a few weeks ago. Smack in the middle of the healthy range, this data is likely to boost the dollar.

Finally, Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 28th at 3.30pm GMT should be interesting. Last week saw the first drop in a while by -2.6M barrels and oil saw the biggest gains in 8 weeks. OPEC discussions about ending their agreement to cut production indicate they could actually keep that going until 2020, though seeing the US make the most gains from their reductions must be galling.