Mark Carney, Chair of the Bank of England, has his moment in the sun on Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT as the Official Bank Rate is revealed. Pundits have priced a rise in for May, but there are mutterings of an early rise that could shake a few foundations. Nothing is off the cards this week.
The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Thursday 22nd March 12pm GMT) has held steady at 0-0-9 since the rise in November, but many expect to see that change as some voices express concerns about the health of the economy. The question is how many want a rise and how many think that would be a disaster. The Policy Summary, also Thursday at 12pm GMT, should give traders a good view of the Bank’s view of the economy.
Before they cast their votes, the CPI and PPI monthly data should give the Monetary Policy Committee more to think about on Tuesday 20th 9.30am GMT. CPI has been rising above inflation targets at 3% or more since September 2017, while PPI is volatile making forecasts difficult. The Average Earnings Index is another one to chuck in the mix on Wednesday 21st at 9.30am GMT. Finally climbing to more than 2% last August, the current 2.5% could jump again depending on who you talk to.
With more multinationals shifting operations to the continents and the ‘subsidiary’ offices in Frankfurt, Rotterdam and elsewhere taking shape, London’s status looks set to take a battering. Will a rate rise depress the currency like the iceberg for Titanic, or could the domestic boost be the life raft the sinking ship has been floundering for?