To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.
USD: FOMC & Fed Funds Rate
The FOMC Statement (7pm GMT Wednesday 31st January) is Yellen’s last as her tenure as the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank comes to an end next month.
After raising rates by a quarter percentage point in December, Yellen outlined a three-quarters point rise for 2018. Back then, warm fuzzy feelings were growing for the outlook of both the US and the global economy. Yellen even said, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.” GDP rose by 2.6% in the fourth quarter and employment continued to rise albeit by less than predicted. Tax cuts pushed through Congress have also bolstered business confidence suggesting incoming Federal Chair Powell will be taking over as the economy hits its stride.
The two big questions for traders right now is when those three-quarters points will kick in and if they will know more after the Statement on Wednesday.
GBP: is it turnaround time?
Reuters reported on Monday 29th January that some of the world’s biggest funds are betting on sterling turning things around. With so much at stake, these mega funds believe Brexit has to go relatively smoothly and recent news about improvements in the economy makes them think interest rates are going up. GBP Tiql players could enjoy some short term fluctuations on the strength of the pound as Mark Carney, Bank England Chair, addresses the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee (Tuesday 30th 3.30pm GMT) at the British parliament.
Also this week are the Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 9.30am GMT) and Construction PMI (Friday 2nd 9.30am GMT). High inflation, low consumer spending and uncertainty around Brexit could put the brakes on a recovery so traders will be watching signs of weakening business confidence.
Last week, Carney put the price of Brexit at £10 billion per year. Traders will be looking for economic confidence from the PMIs; if purchase managers are willing to invest, then the future looks brighter. Manufacturing PMI has been over 50 since August 2016 but dipped nearly 2 points below expectations at the end of 2017 when it came in at 56.3 against 58 forecast. Construction PMI has been far less stable and closer to the 50 mark for many months. Weekend news about falling sales in London suggest international investors are moving out. Forecasts stand at 52.1 but that seems surprisingly positive all things considered.
USD: Non-Farm Unemployment Change
You’ll have to wait until Friday for the biggest USD news of the week as Non-Farm Employment Change is on the way (2nd February 1.30pm GMT).
Last month’s surprise revelation that non-farm related employment rose by almost 100k less than predicted looks set to hit reverse. Analysts predict employment will rise by a healthy 184K instead, though the America First policy seems to be hitting foreign investment in manufacturing, reducing job opportunities there. Check out the news on the LG washing machine factory in Tennessee for more information.
But that’s not all the US action this week. Riding high off the back of his speech wooing business leaders in Davos, Trump turns to his favourite audience – the home crowd – on Wednesday 31st at 2.30am GMT i.e. Tuesday evening in the States. Get in the popcorn and a few bottles of something tasty and kick back to enjoy as social media goes wild.
The State of the Union address is the President’s chance to spell out to Congress what he thinks they should do. Expect to hear about the Wall, about America First and tax cuts. The stock markets are doing well, the dollar is weak boosting trade and the general business mood is positive so traders will be keen to hear what Trump thinks America plc should do next.
Also watch Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 31st 3.30pm GMT), FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate (Wednesday 31st 7pm GMT) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 1st 3pm).
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Tue Jan 30
15:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
15:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- Wed Jan 31
00:30:00 GMT AUD CPI q/q
00:30:00 GMT AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
02:00:00 GMT USD President Trump Speaks
10:00:00 GMT EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
13:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
13:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
19:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
19:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
- Thu Feb 01
09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
15:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Fri Feb 02
09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
13:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
13:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
Some Markets to Watch…
BTCUSD: Bitcoin continues to trade heavy. We have a demand zone at 10,000 and 9,000 with resistance at 12,000. We would need to see some daily closes above the 12,000 level before there is a strong bullish thesis for this market.
USDJPY: last week resistance held on this pair and it traded lower. We are currently testing the 108 level and we have key support at 107.50 below. With the current USD weakness, we may see further downside on this pair.
Crude Oil: $65 is still the key zone on this pair as we can see from the chart below. We are currently trading above the key $65 level and the resistance zone made from the highs from 2015. Again, the weak USD will be a contributing factor for any more drives up.
GBPUSD: We have traded back into pre-Brexit prices now and this pair is trading above the key 1.40 level. 1.38 and 1.37 are key levels to watch should we retrace to see if the bulls reload at these previous chart structure zones.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.
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