Your free guide to the markets this week is a gift to help you to earn more with TIQL. We’re sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week because economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
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USD: Fed Chair Change
This week traders will be excited to hear from Federal Chair Designate Powell. Powell is lined up to take over the hot seat from the current Chair, Yellen, in February 2018. With only weeks to go, markets are keen to know his take on the economy. They get the chance to hear his views when he testifies on his nomination before the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday 28th 3pm GMT). Currently Federal Governor, Jerome Powell is Trump’s pick as the next leader of the national bank. Trump says “He’s strong, he’s committed, he’s smart.”
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin(Tuesday 28th 8.45pm GMT) is speaking about the evolving structure of the US treasury market. As Trump’s economic spokesman this is a key event that could deliver news on changing policies. Dollar markets and stock indices will be affected if that happens.
Finally, Yellen is due to testify on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (Wednesday 29th 3pm GMT). As the current Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, her views are the most important, and there is possibility of one more rate rise before she is replaced in February.
GBP: Bank Stress
The 2008 crisis led to the creation of the Bank Stress Test (Tuesday 28th 7am GMT) in the UK to try and forestall any similar events happening in the future. Designed to find out 7 key banks’ stability and capital reserve adequacy any fails would send minor shockwaves through the City of London and push the currency down. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gives a Press Conference (Tuesday 28th 7.30am GMT) about the results, which could cause volatility on the markets.
Carney talks again (Wednesday 29th 2pm GMT) discussing the Fair and Effective Markets Review at the Fixed Income Currencies and Commodities Markets Standards Board.
The Bank is under pressure after shocking reports suggesting stagnant incomes may not exceed their 2008 levels until 2022. The economy is facing inflation and unemployment is low but productivity estimates and business investment are down. The OBR revised growth estimates to 1.5% from 2% at the end of last week. With a recent rate increase, some are wondering if the Bank made the right move.
CAD: Is it working hard or just hard work?
December starts this Friday and with it a wealth of employment news that could affect the Canadian dollar. A positive employment streak has boosted Canada since August 2016 and that looks set to continue if forecasts for Employment Change (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) are correct. As you’d expect, the Unemployment Rate (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) has steadily fallen since it stood at 7.0% in August 2016 and is currently at 6.3% but if that changed, markets would react.
Both figures are important to the economy but GDP (Friday 1st 1.30pm GMT) is an essential measure of economic health. Released monthly in Canada, GDP shrank by -0.1% for the first time in nine months suggesting things aren’t altogether rosy in Mountie country.
If you want to kick off the action with CAD earlier in the week, it might be good fun to ride the volatility around BoC Governor Poloz’s Press Conference (Tuesday 28th 4.30pm GMT). While he’s talking about the Financial System Review, questions from the press could lead to insights into his attitude towards the current pressures facing the Canadian economy and that could change traders minds about buying or selling. Enjoy.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
Tue Nov 28
07:00:00 UTC 2017 GBP Bank Stress Test Results
07:30:00 UTC 2017 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD Fed Chair Designate Powell Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD CB Consumer Confidence
16:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
20:45:00 UTC 2017 USD Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks
20:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
Wed Nov 29
00:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD RBNZ Gov Spencer Speaks
13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Prelim GDP q/q
14:00:00 UTC 2017 GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
15:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thu Nov 30
00:00:00 UTC 2017 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
00:30:00 UTC 2017 AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
0:00:00 UTC 2017 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
13:30:00 UTC 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
Fri Dec 01
09:30:00 UTC 2017 GBP Manufacturing PMI
15:00:00 UTC 2017 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD GDP m/m
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30:00 UTC 2017 CAD Employment Change
Some Markets to Watch…
BTCUSD: BTC just keeps on impulsing higher. Next resistance is $10,000. We broke through key resistance over weekend trading.
Crude Oil: We’ve seen some selling pressure at the supply zone at $58.50. Key support is at $55 with further resistance at $60 should we break through the highs.
EURUSD: We traded out of the channel last week and this pair is currently trading above 1.19. This price is key for the bulls and if they can sustain here they might gun for 1.2051 and the recent September highs.
GBPUSD: The bulls have managed to keep this pair supported. If they can sustain above 1.3350 on a daily closing basis, there could be a bullish thesis with a target of 1.35 (the 50% retracement from the 2016 move down).
Gold: We’ve been anticipating the rotation higher on Gold. We are testing some key resistance at 1300. Daily closes above this level and the bulls may target 1350. As long as gold trades above 1260 and within the channel, the bullish thesis for this market remains in place.
USDJPY: This pair is looking heavy now, having failed to take out the highs near 114.50 a number of times. We have possible intraday supply at 111.75 and the Yen is currently probing support at 110.75.
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