To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week just for you. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. And this week there’s plenty of action!
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USD: Non-Farm on 3rd
A new month means Non-Farm Employment Change (12.30pm GMT Friday 3rd November). Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States, and this month’s release looks extra interesting.
We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative against a substantial predicted increase (82k). Yet analysts are forecasting an even more meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed. They reckon a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.
USD: FOMC rate decision
November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise (6pm GMT Wednesday 1st). Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high. The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong, but of course, not everyone agrees.
The other news due from the Fed will be huge. The clock is ticking and everybody wants to know who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.
GBP: rates and speeches
Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button (12pm GMT Thursday 2nd) and opinion is divided about whether he should. The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting.
There is a large amount of key BoE trading data on Thursday – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced.
Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. But no matter what he says, the Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding (12.30pm GMT Thursday 2nd) should lead to some volatile action on the markets.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
- Tue Oct 31
03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
19:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
- Wed Nov 01
09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
20:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
- Thu Nov 02
00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
12:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
- Fri Nov 03
00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Some Markets to Watch…
BTCUSD: We’ve begun the trading week by trading back above the 6000 and making new highs; completing the ABCD pattern we have been watching. Where next for Bitcoin? All eyes will be on $6000 to see if we hold going into the week. If BTCUSD is looking a bit rich for you, we have just added Ethereum and Litecoin for you to trade!
USDJPY: Traders are excited about this pair as we once again retest resistance at 114.50. This level is the line in the sand for traders and the risk events this week from Japan and the USA should move this cross one way or the other.
EURUSD: Towards the end of last week this pair traded outside of the chop zone formed over the last few months. The weekly chart shows some of the key levels that traders may be watching. A daily close below the 1.16 may entice the sellers to push this lower to the next support level of 1.13 and a retest of the descending trend line. A move back up and we might see more rotation on this pair.
Copper: This metal has failed at a retest of the highs and previous chart structure. Might we see a deeper correction if we can’t take out the highs? Next support zone near 2.8950.
Gold: We traded close to the October lows on Friday and we are currently trading above the key 1260 level and the 61.8 Fibonacci. Will the buyers hold the channel? 1260 is key for the long and short thesis on this market.
Crude Oil: Friday saw this market pop to the $54 zone. We are at an interesting level here with the completion of the ABCD pattern, the 50% extension and previous supply at around $55. The old highs look vulnerable for now and we could imagine the longs covering their positions on any weakness at these highs. The $52/$53 zone might attract some more buyers if they are going to make another run at the highs.
Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.
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