Top Tiql Tips 30th Oct to 3rd Nov

Too exciting

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week just for you. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. And this week there’s plenty of action!

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

USD: Non-Farm on 3rd
A new month means Non-Farm Employment Change (12.30pm GMT Friday 3rd November). Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States, and this month’s release looks extra interesting.

We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative against a substantial predicted increase (82k). Yet analysts are forecasting an even more meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed. They reckon a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

USD: FOMC rate decision
November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise (6pm GMT Wednesday 1st). Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high. The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong, but of course, not everyone agrees.

The other news due from the Fed will be huge. The clock is ticking and everybody wants to know who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

GBP: rates and speeches
Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button (12pm GMT Thursday 2nd) and opinion is divided about whether he should. The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting.

There is a large amount of key BoE trading data on Thursday – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced.

Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. But no matter what he says, the Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding (12.30pm GMT Thursday 2nd) should lead to some volatile action on the markets.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tue Oct 31
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    19:30:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Unemployment Rate
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Employment Change q/q
  • Wed Nov 01
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    20:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • Thu Nov 02
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Official Bank Rate
    12:00:00 GMT GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
    12:00:00 GMT GBP Monetary Policy Summary
    12:00:00 GMT GBP BOE Inflation Report
    12:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Fri Nov 03
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    09:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: We’ve begun the trading week by trading back above the 6000 and making new highs; completing the ABCD pattern we have been watching. Where next for Bitcoin? All eyes will be on $6000 to see if we hold going into the week. If BTCUSD is looking a bit rich for you, we have just added Ethereum and Litecoin for you to trade!

USDJPY: Traders are excited about this pair as we once again retest resistance at 114.50. This level is the line in the sand for traders and the risk events this week from Japan and the USA should move this cross one way or the other.

EURUSD: Towards the end of last week this pair traded outside of the chop zone formed over the last few months. The weekly chart shows some of the key levels that traders may be watching. A daily close below the 1.16 may entice the sellers to push this lower to the next support level of 1.13 and a retest of the descending trend line. A move back up and we might see more rotation on this pair.

Copper: This metal has failed at a retest of the highs and previous chart structure. Might we see a deeper correction if we can’t take out the highs? Next support zone near 2.8950.

Gold: We traded close to the October lows on Friday and we are currently trading above the key 1260 level and the 61.8 Fibonacci. Will the buyers hold the channel? 1260 is key for the long and short thesis on this market.

Crude Oil: Friday saw this market pop to the $54 zone. We are at an interesting level here with the completion of the ABCD pattern, the 50% extension and previous supply at around $55. The old highs look vulnerable for now and we could imagine the longs covering their positions on any weakness at these highs. The $52/$53 zone might attract some more buyers if they are going to make another run at the highs.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!
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USD non-farm drama

We may need a lie down

Get ready as a new month starts this week and we all know what that means –  Non-Farm Employment Change is out on Friday 3rd November. Traders and market makers always react as it’s one of the earliest pieces of news about the economy in the States and this week it’s hot on the heels of a US Fed Rate decision.

FX EURUSD
EURUSD holds the 1.16 demand zone for now

This month’s release looks extra interesting. We may be wrong, but someone somewhere is possibly a little over-confident about the state of the States. Last month Non-Farm Employment Change underperformed so badly it went -33k into the negative. Yet analysts are forecasting a meteoric rise from the ashes for the American unemployed in October predicting a staggering 311K of new jobs were started. If the data delivers even half of this result the US stock markets are likely to love it as much as they did in July.

Gold market
Buyers hold the support zone in Gold

Hump Day fun with USD

Watching the Fed

November is kicking off with a bang as the FOMC delivers its verdict on a rate rise at 6pm GMT on Wednesday 1st. Most bets are on a rise in December as last week’s GDP looked good and predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change are sky high.

The Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rates rose to <1.25% in June and inflation stands at 2.2% for the twelve months to September so the argument for a rise is looking strong. The other big news to come out of the Fed will be who will run the show after Yellen leaves on February 3rd next year. There are a lot of potential changes if she doesn’t win another term. As the House Republicans are telling Trump not to go there, a new boss looks likely at the Bank. But not just that. The Vice Chair resigned in October and there are other vacancies suggesting a whole new regime could move in. We can’t wait to see what happens.

GBP: 10-year itch on interest rates?

Is this how Carney feels?

The British economy and its currency seem under siege. Its central bank is certainly taking hits from every side so this week’s rate news is even more exciting. 12 noon on Thursday 2nd delivers a raft of key information – BoE Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Committee Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. Homeowners, savers and businesses are facing the first interest rate rise in 10 years if Carney pushes the red button and opinion is divided about whether he should.

A rise of 0.25% is expected before the end of the year as the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney says the decision is finely balanced. Unsurprisingly, he is perhaps trying to forestall any panic in the markets. The Press Conference Carney and other MPC members are holding on Thursday 2nd at 12.30pm GMT should lead to some volatile action on the markets

Top Tiql trading tips: Oct 23rd-27th

New Tiql tips!

To help you to earn more with TIQL here is one of our delightful free guides covering the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

EUR: future policy news
The European Central Bank’s October Minimum Bid Rate decision (Thursday 26th 11.45am GMT) may mark the time when major policy changes will be announced.

The Bank has been on a monetary stimulus programme for the economic zone holding down interest rates at 0.00% since Jan 2016 and injecting cash with monthly asset purchases. Barclays suggest that if the ECB suggests QE will head to zero there could be a rally on the Euro.

Most analysts expect the current 0.00% rate to stay the same until at least mid-2018 but that all depends on what the Euro does. But significant policy changes will impact markets so expect lots of market-moving interesting questions at the Press Conference (Thursday 26th 12.30pm GMT).

CAD: triple rate hike possible
Canadian dollar traders are on tenterhooks to hear news about the key Canadian Overnight interest rate. Its surprise rise to 1.00% in September may not be the end of the matter for 2017 with some saying the Bank of Canada could still have another increase on the cards this year. BoC’s Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday 25th 2pm GMT) is when we all find out. But the big excitement will be the Press Conference (Wednesday 25th 3.15pm GMT).

Now back to pre oil-crisis levels, the interest rate reflects that growth in Canada seems to be moving towards a self-sustaining form that needs less stimulus. While this may be the case for business, there is a worrying background level of household debt to consider. The case for a rise is not cut and dried so there is likely to be a lot of movement in the CAD market as different analysts reach opposing conclusions; and that means fun for Tiql traders!

JPY & NZD: politics
Smart Japanese Prime Minister Abe learned what not to do from the recent British snap election. UK Prime Minister May called a snap election with a majority government and managed to slash her majority so badly she could only wobble back into power on the crutches of the ethically-dubious DUP. Abe clearly took notes and did the opposite. His snap election of Sunday 22nd resulted in an impressive landslide victory.

Abe has never looked stronger and if the markets like one thing, it’s a stable government. Economically, we may see increased government spending to fight deflation, especially in defence. Abe believes debt can only be overcome with growth, which goes against the austerity policy of many other countries.

But in New Zealand about a month ago, results were very different. With no clear victor there has been much political negotiation about who will form a coalition government. In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it is second-place Labour, led by young newcomer Jacinda Ardern, who will form an government with minority party NZ First led by Winston Peters. An unnatural combination, it is likely to worry markets, who will have hoped for a return to the steady policies of Bill English’s National party.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Wednesday 25th October
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
    00:30:00 GMT AUD CPI q/q
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Prelim GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    14:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Rate Statement
    14:00:00 GMT CAD Overnight Rate
    14:00:00 GMT CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    15:15:00 GMT CAD BOC Press Conference
  • Thursday 26th October
    11:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Friday 27th October
    12:30:00 GMT USD Advance GDP q/q

Some Markets to Watch…

Bitcoin continues to defy gravity and it’s detractors to make new highs. We have completed an ABCD pattern and have seen some profit taking and dropped back down below $6000. The line in the sand for the bulls is $5000 where buyers have come in at recently.

BTCUSD makes new highs and completes ABCD pattern

We are at a key level on AUDUSD as can be seen below. CPI numbers out from Australia might see some movement on this pair; the major support zones are shown below.

Key level for the AUDUSD

The weekly chart says it all on EURUSD; this pair is trading near significant support. With central bank news out this week and FOMC & Non-Farm Payroll next week, all eyes will be on the Euro to see how it closes out the next couple of weeks.

Central bank news this week could move EURUSD

The symmetrical pattern has been playing out on the Loonie (the name traders use for the USDCAD pair). Major support is at 1.24 and it looks like the bulls are aiming for 1.2760. Although this pair has broken a descending trend line, it needs to break through some significant support to be considered impulsive. News this week could move this pair but it looks like traders have already been positioning as the week opened.

Another FX pair with central bank news.

Gold is still holding above the 1264 level where the symmetrical pattern completed into previous chart structure. The 200 SMA is also near by. Any breaks and daily closes below this level and we may see a deeper correction down to the 1215 price zone.

Still watching this key level on gold

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

EUR: is this the big one?

Announcement time

Many traders have been waiting a long time for the European Central Bank’s October Minimum Bid Rate decision, due out on Thursday 26th at 11.45am GMT. Many believe this is the time when policy changes will be announced.

The Bank has been on a monetary stimulus programme for the economic zone holding down interest rates at 0.00% since Jan 2016 and injecting cash with monthly asset purchases. A gradual tapering of the $72 million dollar monthly quantitive easing programme is more likely than a complete shut off of funds. Barclays feel that if the ECB suggests QE will head to zero there could be a rally on the Euro. Others suggest the Bank will not announce a monthly rate, instead outlining their annual purchase limit, which would give them more flexibility.

Most analysts expect the current 0.00% rate to stay the same until at least mid-2018 but that all depends on what the Euro does. But significant policy changes will impact markets so expect lots of market-moving interesting questions at the Press Conference at 12.30pm GMT.

CAD triple rate hike?

Tell me, tell me, tell me!

For the key Canadian Overnight interest rate, the surprise rise to 1.00% in September may not be the end of the matter for 2017. The Bank of Canada could still have another increase on the cards this year, and the markets badly want to know. They will pore over Wednesday’s Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report, both at 2pm GMT. But the big excitement will come with the Press Conference, also on Wednesday but at 3.15pm GMT.

USDCAD FX
Key levels on USDCAD going into Central Bank news

Now back to pre oil-crisis levels, the interest rate reflects that growth in Canada seems to be moving towards self-sustaining and needing less stimulus. While this may be the case for business, there is a worrying background level of household debt to consider. The case for a rise is not cut and dried so there is likely to be a lot of movement in the CAD market as different analysts reach opposing conclusions; and that means fun for Tiql traders!

Japan, Jacinta and the markets

Shocked

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past few years, you’ll know just how much politics can affect the markets. Two impactful political events are making themselves felt this week in Japan and New Zealand.

It looks like Japanese Prime Minister Abe learned what not to do from the recent British snap election. May called a snap election with a majority government and managed to slash her majority so badly she could only wobble back into power on the crutches of the ethically-dubious DUP. Abe has clearly taken notes. His snap election of Sunday 22nd resulted in a resounding landslide victory.

Abe has never looked so strong and if the markets like one thing, it’s a stable government. They have so many seats, they no longer need their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats. Economically, we may see increased government spending to fight deflation, especially in defence. Abe believes debt can only be overcome with growth, which goes against the austerity policy of many other countries.

If you cast your minds back, you’ll recall there was an election in New Zealand about a month ago. With no clear victor there has been much political negotiating about who will form a coalition government. In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it is second-place Labour, led by newcomer Jacinda Ardern, who will form an government with minority party NZ First led by Winston Peters. An unnatural combination, it is likely to worry markets, who will have hoped for a return to the steady policies of Bill English’s National party.

 

Your helpful weekly guide to the markets: 16th to 20th Oct

Just your average helpful friend

Helpful! That’s us. So to help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and some key dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. You will receive $1 the very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

CPI: 3 dates this week
New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (Monday 16th at 9.45pm) could rise from its flat 0.0% to 0.4% or possibly even 1.8% depending on who you ask. Either result should give the NZDUSD pair a boost.

Great Britain‘s yearly CPI change (Tuesday 17th at 8.30am GMT) isn’t setting traders pulses racing with predictions along the lines of ‘nothing happening.’ The sluggish economy may see a nudge up from 2.9% to 3.0%, but with targets set at 2%, no-one is going to like that much.

Canada’s monthly CPI (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) concerned analysts when it shrank from 0.2% to 0.1% last month. Combined with worries over the strength of NAFTA the currency isn’t looking as strong as it was. Could it drop to 0.0% this week?

AUD: rate rise news
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (17th at 12.30am) should explain the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate decision. The rate maintained its record low position of 1.5% at the start of October and some feels this is holding the currency down. Opinions about how wise the current policy is are rather varied though ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’ was one recent judgement.

Employment: 4 key figures
GBP could see movement from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT.) British workers’ wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation casting doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. We will be watching closely when Bank of England’s Mark Carney talks to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and attitude towards the employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

The United States‘ weekly Unemployment Claims (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) has predictions for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

Australia also reveals its monthly Unemployment Rate this week (Thursday 19th at 12.30am GMT). At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Slow and steady wins the race or stalls the economy?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Monday 16th October
21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q

Tuesday 17th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
08:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
10:15:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Wednesday 18th October
08:10:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 19th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims

​Friday 20th October
12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
23:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its steam roll upwards making new highs in the last week. If BTC continues its momentum, could we see $6000 this week? Downside support levels where the bulls might take action are shown in the chart below. Retracements tend to be fast and deep on this market so take care and always use a stop loss.

GBPUSD: Broke through the key price level 1.3250 and is now trading just below last week’s high. This pair has been moving in a channel making higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the year and had broken through the 50% retracement at 1.35. Some daily closes above the 1.3250 and we might see the bulls push on to retest the yearly highs and top of the channel. If the bears can push this market down, we might see a retracement to old support and the 200 simple moving average.

Gold: It looks like the bulls have this market for now. The symmetrical pattern we were watching played out and we have had a daily close above the key resistance level at 1295. Watching to see if the bulls can push this to retest the recent highs.

USDJPY: Make or break level for the USDJPY here. Could be a good price for the buyers to load and continue this year’s upward move on gold.

Crude: Still watching the ABCD pattern play out for a retest into the $54.5 level and the 50% extension of the upward move which began in mid June. $53 is the level to watch this week for any defence by the shorts.

USDCAD: this pair is trading above key support at 1.24. We have resistance at 1.2750 and the next demand level at 1.2050.

 

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets are often volatile during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

4 key employment figures this week

High unemployment is an important indicator of poor economic health and the converse is also true. Knowing how well paid everyone is also affects consumer spending – the main driver of most economies around the world – so currency traders pay close attention to any job-related data.

The United Kingdom shares its Average Earnings Index on Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT. A 3-month average is compared against the same from a year ago. For British workers wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation. This casts doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. Bank of England’s Mark Carney is talking to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and reaction to lots of employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

 

The United States looks at its new weekly Unemployment Claims on Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT. Predictions are set for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

 

Australia also reviews its monthly Unemployment Rate this week at 12.30am GMT on Thursday 19th October. At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Any diversion from this will send a shudder through the markets.