Free market guide: 26th to 29th September

Whose is bigger?

Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade. So, to help you to earn more with TIQL, we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Elections: Who won and what do the markets think?
The weekend’s big election winners were Merkel and English. But for the markets, it all depends on who you talk to.

Some pundits have highlighted that NZD has dropped from a week ago amid fears of weeks of coalition talks with New Zealand First led by Winston Peters. Their tiny 9 seat party has a disproportionate amount of power under the New Zealand system. Other analysts are brushing it off saying the re-election of English means stability for the country, which the markets are going to like.

For the Euro, there has a been a sigh of relief as Merkel holds on to power for a fourth term. Widely seen as the new leader of the free world and with no other European leaders stepping up to vie for the top spot, it’s what the currency and its economic zone needed. Far-right election gains have been a worry here too, but they’re lagging behind in third place.

Anything involving a vote by the general public can cause unexpected havoc as Brexit and Trump proved last year so markets will likely react positively as it seems like business as usual.

GBP: the big interest rate question
When sterling dived after last year’s shock Brexit announcement, the Bank cut interest rates to a record 0.25% but it finally looks like a rise is on the cards . The reason so many see a rate rise before the end of the year is that inflation is edging up to 3% despite stagnant wages and ey-watering levels of personal debt.

The Inflation Report Hearings (26th tbc) will be pounced on by market makers and traders alike as they try to price in their predictions. Keep an eye out for announcements. Current Account details (29th 8.30am GMT) will either have traders diving for their own Brexit or consolidating their GBP position.

NZD: Official Cash Rate
Many expect the Bank to keep things steady in the current climate, but some argue the weakening currency and gloomy outlook in housing and construction make a rise before the end of the quarter more certain. Standing at 1.75% many feel the exchange rate is going to be crucial for the future direction of the RBNZ Cash Rate (27th 8pm GMT).

NZD is a volatile currency that tends to react to global forces. Trump and Kim’s war of words will have cautious investors heading back to safer markets, while China’s economy is a hot topic of debate that could push the Kiwi dollar in a number of directions.

War: what is it good for?
The answer to this is obvious to most people. But not apparently Trump or Kim Jong Un who have amped up the verbal spat over the weekend making the threat of actual war loom large, especially over Japan. Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called a snap election. If things are going nuclear and he gets stuck in the middle, he doesn’t want to be in the hot seat.

The markets don’t usually take kindly to the idea of war, but latest figures suggest they’re not taking it seriously. Stock indices and USD markets usually recognise the consequence of war is brutal and widespread so their lack of reaction to the exchange of threats is strange. Surprisingly, safe haven gold isn’t on the up, and the Dow and S&P500 don’t seem fazed.

If things do kick off then the infrastructure damage can massively impact a nation’s short-term economic viability, costing citizens and governments billions. And this means debt as rebuilding efforts must often be financed with cheap capital. Interest rates are usually suppressed to keep capital costs down and this decreases the value of the currency. Don’t forget that the complete uncertainty of war itself impacts markets on a day-to-day basis as well as the longer-term economic outlook.

If you’re interested in how the latest threat of war could affect the currencies, commodities and markets you play, then Trump’s Twitter feed needs to be on your radar along with Reuters and, of course, your Tiql updates.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 26th September
    14:00:00 GMT USD CB Consumer Confidence
    16:45:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • Wednesday 27th September
    12:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    15:45:00 GMT CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    20:00:00 GMT NZD Official Cash Rate
    20:00:00 GMT NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • Thursday 28th September
    06:35:00 GMT JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
    08:15:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
    12:30:00 GMT USD Final GDP q/q
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Friday 29th September
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Current Account
    12:30:00 GMT CAD GDP m/m
    14:15:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    14:45:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin is still caught in the range between $3500 and $4000. This market needs to clear $4100 to get some momentum behind it for the bulls. Any closes below $3500 and we may see a deeper correction to the recent low at $2980 to shake out the week longs.

GBPUSD: We are trading near a key resistance level and top of a parallel channel. A retrace here and the next key level for the bulls is 1.3250. News out this week could see this pair move.

Gold: The shiny metal has found support at the old broken resistance. Buyers have not come in strongly at this point so far; any daily closes below 1294 and we may see a deeper retracement to the 61.8 fib and chart structure around 1264.

Crude Oil: A symmetrical pattern may be playing out here which could see crude testing the 54/55 zone. We’ve broken through resistance and found some buyers above $50. Both $54 and $55 have strong supply candles and we may see the longs cover here and shorts get involved.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

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War? Huh. What is it good for?

How Trump and Kim Jong Un should settle it

Absolutely nothing if you agree with Frankie and most sane people. Sometimes you have to wonder what goes through the minds of some of our world leaders. Trump and Kim Jong Un have amped up the war of words over the weekend making the threat of war loom large, especially over Japan. Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called a snap election. If things are going nuclear and he gets stuck in the middle, he doesn’t want to be in the hot seat.

The markets don’t usually take kindly to the idea of war looming, but latest figures suggest they’re not taking it seriously. Stock indices and USD markets usually think the consequence of war is brutal and widespread so their lack of reaction to the exchange of threats is strange. Surprisingly, gold isn’t on the up and the Dow and S&P500 don’t seem fazed.

If things do kick off then the infrastructure damage can massive impact a nation’s short-term economic viability, costing citizens and governments billions. And this means debt as rebuilding efforts must often be financed with cheap capital. Interest rates are usually suppressed to keep capital costs down and this decreases the value of the currency.  Don’t forget that the complete uncertainty of war itself impacts markets on a day-to-day basis as well as the longer-term economic outlook.

If you’re interested in how the latest threat of war could affect currencies, commodities and markets you play, then Trump’s Twitter feed needs to be on your radar along with Reuters and, of course, your Tiql updates.

NZD Cash Rate Wednesday

They were worried for a minute

Bill English’s National Party might have held on to power and eased market fears, but the forecasts for the Official Cash Rate, due out at 8pm on Wednesday 27th GMT, are less clear.

Many expect the Bank to keep things steady in the current climate, but some argue the weakening currency and gloomy outlook in housing and construction make a rise before the end of the quarter more certain. Standing at 1.75% many feel the exchange rate is going to be crucial for the future direction of the RBNZ Cash Rate.

NZD is a volatile currency that tends to react to global forces. Trump and Kim’s war of words will have cautious investors heading back to safer markets, while China’s economy is a hot topic of debate that could push the Kiwi in a number of directions.

GBP: Will they? Won’t they?

Uncontrolled inflation can be bad

GBP’s big news this week is the growing clamour for an interest rate rise. When sterling dived after last year’s shock Brexit announcement, the Bank cut interest rates to a record 0.25% but it finally looks like a rise is on the cards before the end of 2017. The reason so many see a rate rise ahead is that inflation is edging up to 3% despite stagnant wages and horrific levels of personal debt, and no-one wants to see uncontrolled inflation.

Tuesday 26th’s tentative Inflation Report Hearings will be pounced on by market makers and traders alike as they try to price in their predictions. Keep an eye out for announcements. Friday’s Current Account details at 8.30am GMT will either have traders diving for their own Brexit or consolidating their GBP position.

 

NZD and EUR election winners

Today's big winners - Merkel and English
Today’s big winners – Merkel and English

It all depends on who you talk to.

Some headlines are scaremongering that NZD has dropped from a week ago amid fears of weeks of coalition talks with a inward-looking nationalistic party. Bill English’s National party scraped back into power but it is going to be propped up by New Zealand First led by Winston Peters. Their tiny 9 seat party has a disproportionate amount of power under the New Zealand system. Other headlines are brushing it off saying the re-election of English means stability for the country, which the markets are going to like.

For the Euro, there has a been a sigh of relief as Merkel holds on to power for a fourth term. Widely seen as the new leader of the free world and with no other European leaders stepping up to vie for the top spot, it’s what the currency and its economic zone needed. Far-right election gains have been a worry here too, but they’re relegated to lag behind in third place.

Anything involving a vote by the general public can cause unexpected havoc as Brexit and Trump proved last year so markets will likely react positively as it looks like business as usual.

Tiql Tips: 19th to 22nd September

We all love that friend who keeps giving more

Here’s a free up-to-the-minute guide to the markets with dates to watch this week. As economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, they may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

AUD: 2 big events this week
The AUDUSD pair may have a rocky week when the RBA’s Monetary Policy Committee views are revealed (Tuesday 19th 1.30am GMT). Many believe the MPC will say they have no plans to make changes soon and this has been priced in. However, outside forces often affect the Aussie currency so change could be on its way from the US. Four FOMC events (Wednesday 20th 6pm and 6.30pm GMT) will also keep things interesting.

The FOMC Economic Projections, a Statement, the new Federal Fund Rate are followed by a Press Conference (6.30pm GMT) and there are many different views over whether or not a rate move will happen. Fears of inflation could see the US bank rate rise, which would put downward pressure on the AUDUSD pair. Analysts at Westpac suggest “AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end,” with forecasts for the day ahead around 0.8000.

USD: bumpy ride ahead
Traders are rolling up their sleeves as a slew of activity keeps them busy this week with the focus on Wednesday’s FOMC activity. Officials have hinted that inflation could stay under target for longer than previously predicted so forecasts for a rate rise look less certain. However, the Press Conference (20th 6.30pm GMT) could generate some interesting insights for traders on the future direction of rate policy.

Also this week is Building Permits (Tuesday 19th 12.30pm GMT). A good indicator of general economic strength, traders have had little in the way of consistency for this event though the general trend is upwards. Predictions are for figures to stay around the same at 1.23M.

Unemployment Claims has rocketed in September suggesting the Trump bubble has burst. Currently standing at 284K down from its peak of 298K the week before, forecasts for 12.30pm GMT on Thursday hope another drop is coming otherwise this is a key sign that all is not well in the US economy and the Dow will not like it.

NZD: general elections
The big contender for Friday’s New Zealand elections is a surprise outsider, Jacinda Ardern. Since taking control of her party only two months ago, the straight-talking 30-something has challenged traditional attitudes winning many supporters along the way . Her centre-left Labour party could cause major upset if they achieve a win against Prime Minister Bill English’s conservative National Party. Pundits are already comparing the 37-year-old to Justin Trudeau of Canada and Emmanuel Macron of France though unsurprisingly neither of them faced patriarchal questioning about their family plans during interviews.

New Zealand’s economy has done well under 9 years of National Party leadership so Ardern’s progressive agenda could ruffle business and banking feathers. Some expect a dip in the currency if her popularity grows amid fears that she will introduce a raft of tax-hikes to fund welfare changes. For the budgetary-minded, GDP figures on Wednesday 20th at 10.45pm, could help sway voters on the fence.

CAD: retail therapy
Getting shoppers through the door and hearing the ring of the tills is the great driver of almost every domestic economy. This week Canada’s shopping habits are under the spotlight with two major events (Friday 22nd 12.30pm GMT).

The monthly Consumer Price Index is one of only a few non-seasonally adjusted figures and is a key calendar event due to its wide remit and early release. Plus it has a direct connection to inflation. Last month numbers crept from negative to neutral (0.0%) and that should stay the same though a positive figure would be well received.

Core Retails Sales is far less stable having gone from 1.5% down to -0.1% and back to 0.7% in the last three months. Forecasts are anybody’s guess at this point.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 19th September
    01:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    01:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
  • Wednesday 20th September
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Statement
    18:00:00 GMT USD FOMC Economic Projections
    18:00:00 GMT USD Federal Funds Rate
    18:30:00 GMT USD FOMC Press Conference
    22:45:00 GMT NZD GDP q/q
  • Thursday 21st September
    03:00:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    03:50:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • Friday 22nd September
    12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
    21:45:00 GMT NZD Parliamentary Elections

Some Markets to Watch…

This is the week the liquidity starts to come back into the markets after the summer hiatus in the US. Most of the indices are rotating higher at the moment and may well continue to do so despite the risk off feeling internationaly. FOMC is the event of the week and if its business as usual from them, the grind upwards may continue.

GBPUSD: cable jumped up last week to the half way mark we have been watching. 1.35 is now a key level for buyers of sterling. The next key resistance zone is around 1.3850. Drilling down to the daily chart, we can see the key support and resistance lines in play for the next few weeks.

WTI Crude: $50 is the level to watch this week. Any daily closes above the zone and we might see a futher push; the next resistance is near the $52. The bears too might like the look of this for a possible retrace to the $47.

Gold: We’ve had quite a move on this metal and have hit the key level made on Trump’s electorial win, which many market participants were probaby monitoring. Markets tend to retrace at some point and the Trump level may have made a good target for the longs. The chart below highlights some interesting support and resistance levels for this market.

Bitcoin: Bitcoin sold off dramatically last week before finding some demand at $3000; this had acted both as support and resistance in the past and was a key round number. BTCUSD remains bought for now and found support and the key $3500 level, and looks like it may test the $4000 mark soon. The chart below shows some interesting levels to watch on this market.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

Shopping the Canadian way

Your average girl out shopping

Getting shoppers through the door and hearing the ring of the tills is the great driver of almost every domestic economy. This week Canada’s shopping habits are under the spotlight on Friday 22nd with six events at 12.30pm GMT.

The monthly Consumer Price Index is one of only a few non-seasonally adjusted figures and is taken very seriously due to its wide remit and early release. It has a direct connection to inflation. Last month it crept from negative to neutral (0.0%) and that should stay the same though a positive figure would be well received.

Core Retails Sales is far less stable having gone from 1.5% down to -0.1% and back to 0.7% in the last three months. Forecasts are anybody’s guess at this point.

Also out at the same time are Common CPI yearly change, Median CPI yearly change, Retails Sales monthly figures and Trimmed CPI yearly change. Both Median CPI and Trimmed CPI have been regaining ground, while Common CPI hasn’t changed for some time, but Retails Sales is volatile and heading towards the negative if the current curve is any indication.

Some are worried that Trudeau’s changes could lead them towards recession so traders will be poring over the data to see if the public are confident about spending.

A busy week for the Dow

Riding the US economy

Summer season is truly over in the States and traders are rolling up their sleeves back at their desks. This week there is a slew of activity to keep them busy but it all falls into second place behind Wednesday’s FOMC activity.

Officials have indicated that inflation could be staying under target for longer than predicted so forecasts for a rate rise look less certain. However, the Press Conference at 6.30pm GMT could throw out some interesting tidbits for traders eager to sniff out the future direction of rate policy.

Also tickling the fancy of USD traders this week is Tuesday 19th’s Building Permits data at 12.30pm. A good indication of general economic strength, traders have had little in the way of consistency for this event though the general trend is upwards. Predictions are for figures to stay around the same at 1.23M.

Finishing the week is another key economic figure, Unemployment Claims. This has rocketed in September suggesting the Trump bubble has burst. Currently standing at 284K down from its peak of 298K the week before, forecasts for 12.30pm GMT on Thursday hope another drop is coming otherwise this is a key sign that all is not well in the US economy and the Dow will be bucking like a bronco.

NZD: election week

Ardern vs English - New Zealand candidates
Ardern vs English – New Zealand candidates

The big contender for Friday’s New Zealand elections is a surprise outsider, Jacinda Ardern. The straight-talking 30-something has challenged patriarchal attitudes winning many supporters along the way since taking control of her party only two months ago. Her centre-left Labour party could cause major upset if they pull off a win against Prime Minister Bill English’s conservative National Party. Pundits are already comparing the 37-year-old to Justin Trudeau of Canada and Emmanuel Macron of France though neither of them face anachronistic questioning about their family plans.

New Zealand’s economy has done well under 9 years of National Party leadership so Ardern’s progressive agenda could ruffle business and banking feathers. Some expect a dip in the currency if her popularity grows amid fears that she will introduce a raft of tax-hikes to fund welfare changes.

For the budgetary minded, GDP figures on Wednesday 20th at 10.45pm, could help sway voters on the fence.

AUDUSD pair events this week

Looking good, looking good, fail

Any Australian dollar trader will tell you that it has been an interesting currency recently as the Aussie economy has hovered above recession for months. As recently as July ABC was reported saying that population growth fuelled by immigration was masking the true regression of many areas of the economy. A fair weather currency, it tends to have a bumpy ride depending on what key currencies like the USD and CNY are doing.

The AUDUSD pair could have a volatile week as the RBA reveals its Monetary Policy Committee cogitations on Tuesday 19th at 1.30am GMT followed by an FOMC quartet on Wednesday. Many traders believe the RBA MPC have no plans to make changes soon and this has been priced in. However, change could be on its way from the US. Sharing their Economic Projections, a Statement, the new Federal Fund Rate at 6pm GMT followed by a Press Conference at 6.30pm GMT there are many conflicting views over what rate move Yellen and her team will make this week, if any. Fears of inflation could see the US bank rate rise, which would put downward pressure on the pair. Putting a figure on it, analysts at Westpac suggest “AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end,” with forecasts for the day ahead around 0.8000.