3 key manufacturing events

What was that?

Traders take manufacturing data seriously as it is so closely linked to the general health of the economy. The three key manufacturing events to look at this week are all on Friday 1st September.

  1. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 2.45am BST. Pundits see very little change at around 51. Anything over 50 indicates growth but it’s close.
  2. The British monthly Manufacturing PMI is at 9.30am BST and also due to stay the same at around 55 so healthier than China.
  3. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise slightly from 56.3 to 56.5.

The fact all three are seeing very little  movement sheds light on a general stagflation problem globally. If traders are looking for movement, they may do well to look elsewhere – commodities such as gold and oil may seem more interesting in these conditions.

CAD and EUR will also see manufacturing related action this week. Canada’s RMPI sheds light on the price manufacturers pay for raw materials on Tuesday 29th at 1.30pm BST while the Spanish Manufacturing PMI on Friday 1st at 8.15am BST could affect the Euro.

USD lead up to Non-Farm

Unlike most predictions…

There is a packed week ahead for USD traders culminating in the capricious Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday 1st September at 1.30pm. When you add political tensions into the mix, there’s every reason to believe the dollar will be a little unsteady through the week and that means opportunities.

On Tuesday 29th at 3pm BST, US CB Consumer Confidence may dip according to forecasts (121.1 to 120.3) but the Preliminary GDP figures on Wednesday at 1.30pm BST are predicted to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%. That may be the only light shining this week for the world’s dominant currency as other data due to be released this week all looks either stable or in decline, at least according to the pundits. This is especially true for the powerful Non-Farm Employment Change, heralded as a key figure for traders everywhere, is anticipated to fall from 209K to 180K. But that’s the thing, pundits like to put it out there but there are many, many times when they are wrong. Sometimes they’re a little bit wrong, sometimes spectacularly so. Last month’s Non-Farm forecasts said 182k, but it was nearly 30k more. Which is where your own judgement comes in: is the world confident in the dollar this week or not?

GBP Bank Holidays and business

British BBQ

Mad dogs and Englishmen will be out in the midday sun on Monday 28th as the Banks are closed for the national August Bank Holiday. Expect burnt bald patches and food poisoning as the BBQs are wheeled out.

The end of August a traditionally quiet time of year for trading, but from Tuesday traders will be looking for signs hinting at the direction next week’s key Inflation Report (6th) will take. Net Lending to Individuals on Wednesday 30th at 9.30am BST is predicted to fall, while Friday’s Manufacturing PMI at 9.30am BST looks set to stay the same at around 55.0 showing domestic confidence. Traders will also pay close attention to MPC Member Saunders speaking early (8.45am BST) on Thursday 31st in Wales.

Top Tiql tips: 21st to 26th August

Tips for you!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’re sharing this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements may provide some opportunities to trade as they cause financial markets to move a lot.

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Global: Safe havens
Geopolitics has led to turbulence in the markets and investors are looking for places to keep their money safe. Gold jumped to a 9-month high last week proving its solid status as a safe haven. Since there it has remained fairly flat suggesting a correction may be coming. But further terrorist attacks across Europe and political instability in the US could hold that off.
Bitcoin traders have been hesitant and cash prices have dropped as much as $800 to around $4,000. However Goldman Sachs says a bull market could see BTC rise to as much as $4,800. If gold turns sluggish, Bitcoin could seem more rewarding.

Global: Jackson Hole
One of the key events in the global economic calendar is the yearly Jackson Hole Symposium. It runs this week from 24th to 26th August and speakers include Federal Chair Yellen (25th 5pm BST) and ECB President Draghi (25th 8pm BST). The ECB, Bank of England and Federal Bank in the US have all recently hinted at rolling back the quantitive easing that has powered the global economy since the crash a decade ago, so markets and analysts will be looking for cues on that front. Press releases could affect markets around the world, so be ready for a fun ride though many markets will be quiet in the run up as investors wait to hear what happens.

ECB: Draghi speeches
Draghi’s speech to the 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences on Wednesday  23rd at 8am BST should provide shed light on upcoming ECB interest rate decisions. Many will be looking for his view on QE (quantitive easing) as recent strength in the E.U. is making some traders uneasy about the prospect of inflation. It is likely there will be movement in related markets (EUR, Dax, GBP) around the time of this speech.

Draghi is also due to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday 25th at 8pm BST. Markets may well continue to react as they open next Monday making a stock gap up or down more likely than average.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Tuesday 22nd August
12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Wednesday 23rd August
07:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 24th August
08:30:00 GMT GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims

Friday 25th August
12:30:00 GMT USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
19:00:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

Some Markets to Watch…

Weak flows as we go into the end of summer could lead to exaggerated moves across most markets, take care and practice good risk management.

AUDUSD: The bulls have managed to maintain price above the old resistance now turned support. For now, the bulls have this FX pair above 0.78. If the bears can push this below the support zone, there may be some potential support at the 0.77 where we have previous demand.

GBPUSD: Cable closed the week just on the support line we have been watching at 1.2950. For now, the bulls will be eyeing the 1.2780 for any signs of demand. Below this, the bears have the ball to 1.26.

Gold: Gold has retested the yearly highs for a third time and ran the stops to as high as almost 1300. Where to now with gold? Gold could still be on a journey to retest the highs made in October when Trump won the US election. We might see some corrective price action and a retest of some recent support lines. Which ever way Gold goes, all eyes are on last week’s high at 1300.

Bitcoin: This crypo-currency continues to grind higher. We made new ground over the weekend last week and the $4000 marks have held for now. The chart below shows some support and resistance lines which may attract some interest as we go into month’s end.

Brent: Continues to rotate and we saw buyers came in at the edges of the congestion zone to buy this market last week. For now, we are watching the edges of the consolidation for indications as to what is next for this market.

S&P 500: We’ve seen a couple of days of heavy selling on this index over the last two weeks. This is all on summer flows though, but any breaks of support and we might see a retest of the 200 moving average on this market. If the bulls can hold 2400, then perhaps there will be some further rotation to the upside again.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

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TIQL: Serious fun!

Safe havens this week

My kind of security

When war looms and domestic US politics throws curveballs more often than home runs, where are investors turning to keep their money safe?

Asian shares have been unsteady as the war of words between North Korea and Trump escalates. Monday’s US warship incident won’t do anything to help jittery nerves in Washington and the planned manoeuvres the US are holding with South Korea have been described as like ‘pouring gasoline on the fire’.

Currency traders are likely to see small movements as everyone waits to hear the news from Jackson Hole. However, there may be some action for CAD in the first half of the week with Core Retail Sales figures (Tuesday 22nd 1.30pm BST) and Wholesale Sales (Monday 21st 1,30pm BST).

Gold jumped to a 9-month high last week proving its solid status as a safe haven. Since there it has remained fairly flat suggesting a correction may be coming. But further terrorist attacks across Europe and political instability in the US could lend support to the commodity.

Bitcoin traders have been hesitant and cash prices have dropped as much as $800 to around $4,000. But don’t forget that’s in the context of Goldman Sachs saying it could rise to as much as $4,800 in the bull market. Some think this could be interesting for traders looking for alternatives if gold turns sluggish.

3 days of Jackson Hole

Is Jackson in here?

The annual Jackson Hole Symposium takes place across Thursday to Saturday this week. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium is a key event in the global economic calendar. The fact that Federal Chair Yellen (Friday 25th 5pm BST) and ECB President Draghi (Friday 25th 8pm BST) are both scheduled to speak shows it carries some clout.

With geopolitical turmoil in Asia and the US, traders will be hoping for signs of stability coming from the annual get-together. The ECB, Bank of England and Federal Bank in the US have all recently dropped hints about rolling back the fiscal stimulus that has powered the global economy in the last decade, so comments will be analysed with this in mind. As attendees come from across the world, press releases could affect every market so plan trades carefully and be ready for a rollercoaster.

Draghi delivering twice

Take care

We seem to be entering a thin few weeks in the markets with traders advised to take care.

Draghi’s speech on Wednesday 23rd at 8am BST to the 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences, in Germany, should provide some good insights for EUR, Dax and GBP traders in particular. As the leader of the European Central Bank, he has the ultimate control over its interest rate decisions. Many will be looking for his view on QE (quantitive easing) as the recent strength in the Zone is making some parties uneasy about the prospect of inflation. Anything he says about the timing of the end of Quantitive Easing will be jumped on so expect movement in related markets around the time of this speech.

Draghi is also due to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday (8pm BST) but Wednesday’s event is more likely to affect market prices this week. Bear in mind that traders may well continue to react as markets open next Monday making a stock gap up or down more likely than average.

In The News: Daily Express

Sebastian Kettley | 14 Aug 2017

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/840982/Bitcoin-price-BTC-value-record-high-chart-cryptocurrency-news

This wide ranging article quotes a tweet from our CEO, Justin Short:

BTC $4k. It may be volatile but it’s not worthless.