Thursday 30th March gives us two important sets of data about the US economy.
- Final Quarter GDP (1.30pm GMT)
- Unemployment Claims (1.30pm GMT)
The first one, GDP, looks back at the final quarter of 2016, and should give an expected 2.0% based on the previously released Advance and Preliminary figures. This is in line with the Federal Reserve Bank’s plans for economic growth and the markets will probably take it in their stride.
Less reassuring but still good are the more volatile figures for the Jobless Total, or Unemployment Claims as it’s also know. This data is far more recent and is an early indicator of economic direction. In light of recent political developments going against Trumpflation, it is likely traders will take the data to heart. Predictions are for a fall in unemployment from 261k to 244k. This is good for the economy because when fewer people are jobless, the population tends to spend more. But last week pundits forecast 240k. They were way off and there’s every chance that will happen again.
As analysts have been known to get the numbers quite significantly wrong in the past, it is likely traders will wait until the data hits their desk before reacting to this one.