Your helpful weekly guide to the markets: 16th to 20th Oct

Just your average helpful friend

Helpful! That’s us. So to help you to earn more with TIQL we’re giving you this free guide to the markets and some key dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. You will receive $1 the very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL.

CPI: 3 dates this week
New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (Monday 16th at 9.45pm) could rise from its flat 0.0% to 0.4% or possibly even 1.8% depending on who you ask. Either result should give the NZDUSD pair a boost.

Great Britain‘s yearly CPI change (Tuesday 17th at 8.30am GMT) isn’t setting traders pulses racing with predictions along the lines of ‘nothing happening.’ The sluggish economy may see a nudge up from 2.9% to 3.0%, but with targets set at 2%, no-one is going to like that much.

Canada’s monthly CPI (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) concerned analysts when it shrank from 0.2% to 0.1% last month. Combined with worries over the strength of NAFTA the currency isn’t looking as strong as it was. Could it drop to 0.0% this week?

AUD: rate rise news
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (17th at 12.30am) should explain the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate decision. The rate maintained its record low position of 1.5% at the start of October and some feels this is holding the currency down. Opinions about how wise the current policy is are rather varied though ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’ was one recent judgement.

Employment: 4 key figures
GBP could see movement from the Average Earnings Index (Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT.) British workers’ wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation casting doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. We will be watching closely when Bank of England’s Mark Carney talks to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and attitude towards the employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

The United States‘ weekly Unemployment Claims (Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT) has predictions for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

Australia also reveals its monthly Unemployment Rate this week (Thursday 19th at 12.30am GMT). At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Slow and steady wins the race or stalls the economy?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

Monday 16th October
21:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q

Tuesday 17th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
08:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
10:15:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Wednesday 18th October
08:10:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30:00 GMT GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 19th October
00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims

​Friday 20th October
12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
23:30:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: bitcoin continues its steam roll upwards making new highs in the last week. If BTC continues its momentum, could we see $6000 this week? Downside support levels where the bulls might take action are shown in the chart below. Retracements tend to be fast and deep on this market so take care and always use a stop loss.

GBPUSD: Broke through the key price level 1.3250 and is now trading just below last week’s high. This pair has been moving in a channel making higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the year and had broken through the 50% retracement at 1.35. Some daily closes above the 1.3250 and we might see the bulls push on to retest the yearly highs and top of the channel. If the bears can push this market down, we might see a retracement to old support and the 200 simple moving average.

Gold: It looks like the bulls have this market for now. The symmetrical pattern we were watching played out and we have had a daily close above the key resistance level at 1295. Watching to see if the bulls can push this to retest the recent highs.

USDJPY: Make or break level for the USDJPY here. Could be a good price for the buyers to load and continue this year’s upward move on gold.

Crude: Still watching the ABCD pattern play out for a retest into the $54.5 level and the 50% extension of the upward move which began in mid June. $53 is the level to watch this week for any defence by the shorts.

USDCAD: this pair is trading above key support at 1.24. We have resistance at 1.2750 and the next demand level at 1.2050.

 

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets are often volatile during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

4 key employment figures this week

High unemployment is an important indicator of poor economic health and the converse is also true. Knowing how well paid everyone is also affects consumer spending – the main driver of most economies around the world – so currency traders pay close attention to any job-related data.

The United Kingdom shares its Average Earnings Index on Wednesday 18th at 8.30am GMT. A 3-month average is compared against the same from a year ago. For British workers wages have stagnated despite increasing inflation. This casts doubt on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate rise plans. Bank of England’s Mark Carney is talking to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 17th at 10.15am. Expect to get a good insight into his current rate policy and reaction to lots of employment data. Low unemployment is good but if the jobs are poorly-paid and insecure, the economy isn’t going to start flying any time soon.

 

The United States looks at its new weekly Unemployment Claims on Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT. Predictions are set for a small rise (243K to 245K) but that is in the context of a period of low unemployment and a similar wage problem to the U.K.

 

Australia also reviews its monthly Unemployment Rate this week at 12.30am GMT on Thursday 19th October. At the same time, the monthly Employment Change data is released. Last month saw a bit of a jump in unemployment (29.3K to 54.2K) while the employment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Expectations are for a small fall in the numbers and the rate to stay around the same. Any diversion from this will send a shudder through the markets.

Is Australia looking at a rate rise?

Australian traders watching everything

 

Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (17th at 12.30am GMT) should give us all a better insight into the whens and whys of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next potential interest rate decisions. Many feel that the current slow but steady policy which saw the rate maintain its record low position of 1.5% at the start of October is holding the currency down. There are wide discrepancies in how long analysts reckon it will take for rates to rise. Some say next year, some as long as 2020. And opinions about how wise the current policy is are just as varied: ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’ was one recent judgement.

AUD traders and market makers will be watching political rumblings in the Asia Pacific region carefully over the next few months, especially if they affect China, as well as watching commodities – one of Australia’s main trade areas. As the second wealthiest country in terms of $ per adult after Switzerland, the economy may seem a little stagnant, but it has hidden strength.

3 pairs trading the CPI this week

How much?!

 

Traders love to know when we are going shopping and how much things are going to cost us. If the price is going up, they take that as a sign of economic health and strength in the currency. Three countries reveal their Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs) this week but that’s not all that’s affecting them

New Zealand’s quarterly CPI, Monday 16th at 9.45pm, is forecast to rise from a flat 0.0% to 0.4% or possibly even as much as 1.8% depending on who you’re asking. Either result should give the NZDUSD pair a boost. But political uncertainty is putting a damper on things and even China’s inflationary news doesn’t seem to have shaken the currency much.

Great Britain reveals its yearly CPI change on Tuesday 17th at 8.30am GMT with most predictions along the lines of ‘nothing happening.’ The sluggish economy may see a nudge up from 2.9% to 3.0%, but with targets set at 2%, no-one is going to like it much. BoE Chair Carney has been dropping heavy hints about a rate rise next month. Traders want to know if this will be the event that changes his mind.

Canada’s monthly CPI, out Friday 20th at 12.30pm GMT, worried analysts when it shrank from 0.2% to 0.1% last month. Combined with concerns over the strength of NAFTA the currency isn’t looking as strong as it was.

Tiql Tips: 9th to 13th Oct

High five!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we made this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

Bank Holiday Monday: who gets one?
Columbus Day anyone? Well, yes, if you’re in the US it is and that means no trading. Other lucky people enjoying days off include the Canadians with Thanksgiving and Japan with Sports Day.

FOMC: December rate rise?
The FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday 11th 6pm GMT) should shed light on the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but surprisingly low inflation has put a spanner in the works. Higher employment and a healthy economy usually means inflation but it’s not hitting targets so the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious. But there are many voices who would like to see a complete change of policy fearing that any rate rises at all could stifle growth.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. This month, CPI (Friday 13th 12.30pm GMT) is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures (Thursday 12th 12.30pm GMT) to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

GBP: a troubled currency
The British currency has taken a pounding since Brexit and it looks like things are sliding further.

Political uncertainty looms as Prime Minister May’s future is in question. She suffered an excrutiating party conference plus Brexit negotiations are painfully slow with both sides starting to become entrenched in opposition making the likelihood of an agreement being reached before the 2019 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Bad relations and no trade deal with their closest and largest trading partner could be around the corner for the UK. This would mean rising trade costs in the midterm future. The rats are deserting the ship as a growing number of international banks are renting increasing amounts of office space in Frankfurt. It looks like the City of London party is coming to an end.To finish things off, ratings agency, Standards & Poor, are questioning the country’s ability to withstand an interest rate increase.

Mark Carney, the Canadian Bank of England Chair, would be wise to check his passport is up-to-date if Manufacturing Production monthly change (Tuesday 10th 8.30am GMT) comes in under par. Last month showed a healthy 0.5% increase against the 0.3% predicted and everyone will be hoping that is the start of a positive trend. The Goods Trade Balance (Tuesday 8.30am GMT) and BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday 12th 8.30am GMT) should both make for interesting reading. Supporters of a rate rise will be looking for another drop in the Goods Trade Balance, currently -11.6B, while the markets see rising debt levels as signs of confidence in consumer and business spending. It’s unclear why they don’t see it as a sign of desperate attempts to stay afloat but that’s an economics lesson for another day.

Oil: a storm brewing
Has the tide turned for oil? After hitting well above $50 a barrel at the end of September, prices dropped down near to $49 as some analysts said they were concerned the price has risen too far, too fast.

Adding to depreciatory fears, Tropical Storm Nate led to shutdowns in the US Gulf oil production region as they head into the traditional maintenance period. On top of that, some of the main US shale producers are set for record outputs this month and, worryingly, US crude stockpiles are currently more than 70 million barrels over their 5-year average adding further downward pressure on prices. Traders will pay close attention when the latest weekly Crude Oil Inventories data is revealed (Thursday 12th 3pm GMT). Any increase could be taken rather badly.

But that’s not all. Adding more fuel to the fire, Libya’s just opened up oil fields that have been shut for a long time while OPEC’s main producers like Saudi Arabia have all upped their output despite renewing their agreement to keep a lid on production.

It looks like it could be a race to the bottom for oil this week and many investors will be thinking about cashing in before prices sink too far. The question is who would buy in this climate?

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Tuesday 10th October
    08:30:00 GMT 2017 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
  • Wednesday 11th October
    18:00:00 GMT 2017 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Thursday 12th October
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD PPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Unemployment Claims
    14:30:00 GMT 2017 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    15:00:00 GMT 2017 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • ​Friday 13th October
    ​12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Core Retail Sales m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT 2017 USD Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch…

S&P 500 and Dow: The US indices continue to grind higher on low volatility. The charts below show the support lines the buyers may be watching to maintain their bullish consensus. For now, all these charts are pointing up with any retracements being bought.


GBPUSD: We saw some selling-off last week with a daily close below 1.32500. 1.29 looks vulnerable if we can hold below the 1.32 round number.

Crude: $50 is the line in the sand for this market. We have found some support at $49.35 which is at the half way back of the recent move up. Below $50, the bears have the ball on this market and a deeper move testing some of the most recent lows could be on the cards.

Gold: Gold has been rotating in an upwards channel and there may be some symmetrical patterns in play. A hold above $1264 at the 61.8 Fibonacci and we might see this market rotate higher to the top of the channel. Any daily closes below this price and outside of this channel may see some more sellers come in.

USDCAD: We are at an interesting price point here. Any breaks below support at 1.2400 and the bears might have this. Daily closes above 1.26 and the bulls might try for 1.2750.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!

TIQL: Serious fun!

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A storm brewing in oil

Worrying about nothing?

Has the tide turned for oil? After hitting well above $50 a barrel at the end of September, prices dropped down near to $49 as analysts said they were concerned the price has risen too far, too fast.

Adding to depreciatory fears, Tropical Storm Nate is bearing down on the US Gulf oil production region leading to shutdowns as they head into the traditional maintenance period. On top of that, some of the main US shale producers are set for record outputs this month and, worryingly, US crude stockpiles are currently more than 70 million barrels over their 5-year average adding further downward pressure on prices. Traders will pay close attention on Thursday 12th at 3pm GMT when the latest weekly Crude Oil Inventories data is revealed. Any increase could be taken rather badly.

But that’s not all. Adding more fuel to the fire, Libya’s just opened up oil fields that have been shut for a long time while OPEC’s main producers like Saudi Arabia have all upped their output despite renewing their agreement to keep a lid on production.

It looks like it could be a race to the bottom for oil this week and many investors will be thinking about cashing in before prices sink too far. The question is who would buy in this climate?

GBP? Oh dear.

Oh no!

The word beleaguered seems like it was made for sterling. The British currency has taken a pounding since Brexit and it looks like things are sliding further.

Prime Minister May’s future is in question after an excrutiating party conference at which a comedian was able to hand her a joke P45 and ratings agency, Standards & Poor, questioned the country’s ability to withstand an interest rate increase. Brexit negotiations are painfully slow with both sides starting to become entrenched in opposition making the likelihood of an agreement being reached before the 2019 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Bad relations and no deal with their closest and largest trading partner could be around the corner for the UK spelling rising trade costs in the midterm future while a growing number of international banks are renting increasing amounts of office space as they sneak off to Frankfurt. The City of London party looks like it’s coming to an end.

Mark Carney, the Canadian Bank of England Chair, could well start hunting for his passport if Tuesday’s 8.30am GMT Manufacturing Production monthly change comes in under par. Last month showed a healthy 0.5% increase against the 0.3% predicted and everyone will be hoping that is the start of a positive trend. The Goods Trade Balance, also Tuesday at 8.30am GMT,  and BOE Credit Conditions Survey, Thursday 12th 8.30am GMT, should both make for interesting reading. Supporters of a rate rise will be looking for another drop in the Goods Trade Balance, currently -11.6B, while the markets see rising debt levels as signs of confidence in consumer and business spending. It’s unclear why they don’t see it as a sign of desperate attempts to stay afloat but that’s an economics lesson for another day.

 

Will the US raise interest rates in December?

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday 11th at 6pm will be the hottest news this week for USD traders eyeing up the prospect of a December rate rise. Yellen promised a raft of rate hikes across the year, but life has a funny way of tripping up even the best laid plans. With inflation surprisingly low despite higher employment and a healthy economy, the tone in recent speeches has moved towards a gradual increase over anything more ambitious.

Last month’s CPI fuelled speculation that a rise could still happen before the end of the year when it showed a 0.4% rise in August. Friday 13th’s CPI at 12.30pm GMT is predicted to follow this upward trend with suggestions of another month of growth from some quarters. However, unless inflation starts to reach the planned 2% there are many voices who would like to see a change of policy altogether fearing that any rate rises could stifle growth. Watch the PPI and Unemployment figures on Thursday 12th at 12.30pm GMT to start forming your own view of whether that inflation target is likely to hit by December. Traders will be doing the same and pricing their decisions into the USD and US indexes.

Yellen is smart enough to admit she doesn’t know why inflation is so low and, if the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t know then who are we to argue with that.

Tiql Tips: 2nd Oct to 6th Oct

Sounds yummy

Another free helping of hints and tips to help you to earn more with TIQL this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade so here are some risk events to watch.

Remember, you can earn some extra cash by inviting people to trade with TIQL. The very first time someone you invite makes a deposit of $5 of more, you will receive $1. Whoever you invite also gets $1 USD to trade with; you can’t get better than that! You can keep earning as we pay you a percentage every time your supporters trade with TIQL. Get all the details here.

AUD: Cashing in on the Cash Rate
Australia’s Reserve Bank’s latest Cash Rate decision (3rd October at 3.30am GMT) has analysts reasonably confident the rate will hold at 1.5% for a thirteenth time. But will they ever agree? A panel of eminent economists, including two former RBA board members, are predicting a rise within 6 months. If the Rate Statement (3.30am GMT 3rd October) echoes this, expect to see the rise get priced in by some traders. On the other hand, some analysts don’t see a rise before 2020 so it’s not certain by any means.

Trade Balances: 3 key currency events this week
A country’s Trade Balance is a great window on its economic health. Here are three that could cause some movement on the markets this week.

Australia’s Trade Balance (Thursday 5th 12.30am) comes a few days after their latest Cash Rate decision so traders will be looking for a distinct upswing from the generally lower-than-predicted balances of the last seven months. Last month’s 0.46B was far lower than forecast due to reduced commodities exports, but some see growth to 0.9B in August based on increases in iron ore export.

Canada’s Trade Balance (Thursday 5th 12.30pm) is in the negative at -3.0B but it has been making positive inroads and many forecasts are for that upwards trend to continue.

The United States’ Trade Balance (Thursday 5th 12.30pm GMT) stands at -43.7B. This is the worst it’s been for a while and there are widely divergent opinions over where it’s heading next. Trump has made dealing with the deficit one of his administration’s core policies, but that seems to be misfiring. That shouldn’t worry him though as those pesky charts with their facts and figures are sure to be fake news.

USD: Non-Farm Employment Change
Some predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday 6th at 12.30pm GMT) suggest a massive decline from 156K to 88K. This is significantly down from the recent July peak of 222K. Then again, others think it will rise to 165K. So your guess is probably as good as the experts right now.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Monday 2nd October
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Manufacturing PMI
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Tuesday 3rd October
    03:30:00 GMT AUD Cash Rate
    03:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Rate Statement
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Construction PMI
  • Wednesday 4th October
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Services PMI
    12:15:00 GMT USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    14:00:00 GMT USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
    17:15:00 GMT EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
    19:15:00 GMT USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • Thursday 5th October
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Trade Balance
    00:30:00 GMT AUD Retail Sales m/m
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
  • ​Friday 6th October
    ​12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
    12:30:00 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Employment Change

Some Markets to Watch…

BTCUSD: Bitcoin broke through key resistance last week and is trading above the $4200 level. The key resistance and support levels for this crypto are shown below.

GBPUSD: Cable found some supply last week as sellers maintained price on this pair below 1.35. The key support levels as we go into this week with various PMI numbers out are show below.

Gold: We are starting to see the deeper correction now on this pair. There is a potentially interesting demand level at the 61.8 fibonacci level near the completion of a symmetrical swing and previous chart structure.

Crude: A symmetrical pattern may still be playing out here which could see crude testing the 54/55 zone. $50 is the key level for the bulls and this market looks well bid above this price.

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

Markets can really move during news events; all TIQL trades come with guaranteed stops to always protect you from losing more than you have invested in a trade.

Deposit today from $5 with Skrill, Neteller, Paypal or Visa.
Good trading!
TIQL: Serious fun!

Non-Farm Friday is here

How much?!

Some predictions for Non-Farm Employment Change, out on Friday 6th at 12.30pm suggest a massive decline from 156K to 88K. This is way down from the recent peak in July of 222K. Then again, others think it will rise to 165K. Make of that what you will.

Bear in mind that forex traders are always interested in the latest figures on the economy of their chosen currency. They can extrapolate the rate of inflation and economic growth from news about wages, unemployment, and payroll. Of these, the non-farm payroll data is the earliest and most important. Including all payroll data for the previous month, except those in agriculture, an increase will be closely linked to economic growth and vice versa for a decrease. If the rate of increase speeds up we could also be looking at inflationary risks increasing.