Market News Update: 17-20 July

Your free guide to the markets this week

Is that a Tiql guide you got for me?!

To help you to earn more with TIQL we’ve produced this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Financial markets can move a lot when economic news and similar announcements are made, and may provide some opportunities to trade.

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JPY: under pressure with a potential rate change in sight
The Bank of Japan’s dovish stance comes under scrutiny (20th 7.30am GMT) as reflationary indications push opinion away from further stimulus. Governor Kuroda gets a grilling in the Press Conference after the Outlook Report and Rate Statement. The question is whether the July 7th intervention reassures traders that the bank has control of borrowing costs or not.

EURUSD: 3 key events this week
In another key market interest rates are the centre of attention this week. The ECB details its minimum bid rate on 20th (12.45pm GMT) It’s stayed put at 0.00% since March 2016 but economic indications point to a chance of movement. The press conference (1.30pm GMT) should reveal more. Watch market reactions to the German Economic Sentiment (18th 10am) and the Final CPI (17th 10am) on forex and DAX to get an idea of which way traders think the ECB will jump.

USD: building permits and oil lead the way
The number of new builds has been overestimated since February so predictions of an increase to 1.20M (19th 1.30pm) are not entirely reliable, though traders would take the increase as a sign of domestic strength if true. Crude Oil Inventories have been dropping back in line with OPEC policy and far faster than forecast so the announcement on 19th (3.30pm) will be another reduction if the trend continues.

Here are the main news events to look out for this week:​

  • Monday 17th July
    22:45:00 GMT NZD CPI q/q
  • Tuesday 18th July
    01:30:00 GMT AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minute
    08:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
    13:30:00 GMT GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
  • Wednesday 19th July
    12:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
    14:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday 20th July
    01:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
    01:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
    03:50:00 GMT JPY Monetary Policy Statement
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Outlook Report
    04:00:00 GMT JPY BOJ Policy Rate
    06:30:00 GMT JPY BOJ Press Conference
    08:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
    11:45:00 GMT EUR Minimum Bid Rate
    12:30:00 GMT USD Unemployment Claims
    12:30:00 GMT EUR ECB Press Conference
  • Friday 21st July
    12:30:00 GMT CAD CPI m/m
    12:30:00 GMT CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Some Markets to Watch

The Dow is making new highs. Chart action shows it moving in a channel making higher highs and higher lows. Will the old highs now act as support for the buyers to push on?

The Dax has moved back into the range and is sitting on intermediate support. Will support hold and price retest the highs?

Brent oil has found supply at the half way back. The next level up is the 61.8 Fibonacci, which coincides with previous chart structure. There is also an ABCD pattern which may complete near the 200 daily moving average.

BTCUSD has dropped below the key psychological 2000 level and found support and a previous demand level. Check our chart for the key support and resistance lines.

GBPUSD has broken through the resistance and is currently trading above 1.3040. All eyes will be on this level going into the week

A chart of GBPUSD
GBPUSD pops up above resistance. More upside for cable?

Gold has moved up and is retesting a level which has acted as support and resistance. This will be a key level to watch on gold

Gold Chart
Gold is retesting a key level

Whichever way you think these markets are going to go, you can trade these and other markets from as little as 1 cent with TIQL.

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Is an ECB rate rise overdue?

rise… and fall

Two key dates for this week’s trading diary if you’re interested in the DAX and EUR/USD markets are Tuesday 18th and Thursday 20th.

The Final CPI (consumer price index) on Tuesday 18th at 10am follows a period of fluctuation since it rose in February 2017 to 1.8%. Rising as high as 2.0% in March, last month saw a dip to 1.4%. Forecasts are for another drop to 1.3% but we’re still looking way above the figures during 2016.

Also on Tuesday is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index at 10am GMT. Focused on German institutional investors and analysts this will pique the interest of DAX traders. As one of Tiql’s most recent additions,the DAX offers players a chance to trade the stocks of 30 key German companies. Anything that affects the currency, import or export levels of the country should be high on the priority list for a DAX trader. Aside from April recent forecasts have been too positive. Will pundits be too upbeat again this month?

Thursday is show day this week with the ECB minimum bid rate and press conference at 12.45pm and 1.30pm GMT respectively. The rate has been at 0.00 since March 2016 and some analysts are hawkishly saying a rise is overdue. Watch for changes in the lead up as markets price in their predictions and enjoy Thursday’s rollercoaster. Woohoo!

Spotlight on BoJ Thursday 20th

Having a Trump break

Thursday 20th gives traders a chance to give their brains a much-needed break from Trump and look east as the BoJ releases its latest Outlook Report and Rate Statement some time before 7.30am GMT. The subsequent Press Conference at 7.30am gives journalists a chance to grill Governor Kuroda.

At the end of last week, the Yen took a dive as traders fear the Bank will continue its dovish stance. But there are competing forces as growth seems to be finally appearing. Could reflation be here? Some aren’t convinced the Bank has the ability to get a grip on borrowing costs and the July 7th intervention may not have been enough. If there is further stimulus, some say traders won’t be keen but either way Thursday should be lots of fun.

EUR/USD is the pair to watch (but don’t forget GBP)

they’re on a EUR/USD ride

If you’re looking for volatility then the Euro dollar FX pair should give you plenty of fun this week. The markets will start the week reacting to the unusual G20 statement with its US-forced addition about fossil fuels, before looking ahead to Yellen’s testimony and Q&A session at the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday 12th and Thursday 13th. The mood is rising for a rate change but not everyone agrees. It will be interesting to see what she tells the Senate.

What do you mean you don’t believe me?

Elsewhere, Carney has been at pains to reassure the City of London that the Brexit transition will be painless. I can’t decide if he sounds more like a vet reassuring a pet owner before Fluffy is put down, or a dentist before a major extraction. Either way, I don’t think anyone is buying it and GBP has a wobbly feel. This week will see the Bank of England release its Credit Conditions Survey the day after the Average Earnings Index (12th at 9.30am GMT). Neither is expected to do much to reassure traders that the currency is recovering, especially when the ONS announced the trade deficit had widened by more than one billion pounds than expected last week (11.86bn against a predicted 10.80bn).

Handbags at dawn after the G20 summit

It was bring your daughter to work day at the G20
It was bring your daughter to work day at the G20

DAX traders have been watching the G20 summit like the rest of us with the usual order of popcorn plus a large side of something strong, straight up. Merkel came out looking strong while the Trump dynasty moved American democracy in a new-old-new familial rule direction when a handbag designer stood in for POTUS at a world leader round table. There’s nothing like a bit of inappropriate nepotism to seal the deal.

Looking ahead, the EURUSD pair is likely to have a strong effect on the DAX across the week as the DAX has a predominance of exporters. This means a strengthening currency could depress things so the flurry of USD activity from Wednesday to Friday could keep markets volatile especially on Thursday when Yellen faces a Q&A session with the Senate Banking Committee.

Dow’s keeping it tight and choppy

Trumptastic tweets ahead this week

Looking at the week ahead, key events affecting the Dow include the holiday-shortened week (4th July markets closed) and the G20 summit starting on Friday in Hamburg. Politics reach into trading has never been more apparent than under Trump’s administration and traders will be watching the international summit as closely as Trump’s twitter feed.

The Dow Jones Index finished last week posting its best first half gains since 2009 but ended the week itself down as technology stocks rolled over. But pundits are not concerned as hawkish tones from banking figures, such as Draghi in Europe, have caused bond yields to spike. For the US market, banks are looking strong as the Federal Reserve approved the capital returns programme for the larger institutions. In fact, it’s the first time they haven’t objected to any of the dividend hikes or buybacks for all 34 big banks it reviewed since the stress test was introduced seven years ago. The Dow closed at 21349.63, a 62.20 point change.

Some analysts forecast tight ranges and low volumes so expect a choppy ride.

Non-Farm Friday is here

USD traders monthly highlight, the Non-Farm Employment Change, or Non-Farm Payroll as it’s also known, returns on Friday 7th at 1.30pm GMT. Predictions are for a significant increase from last month’s shock 138k up to 175k. Employment and job creation are integral to currency and stock market trading as they correlate to consumer spending. This feeds directly into the market’s perception of the economic health of the country. Job levels have fluctuated wildly for the last few months so not every pundit believes the positive predictions.

EURUSD demand supply lines EURUSD FX
Support and resistance lines for EURUSD going into NFP

The dollar index started the week at 95.64 trading fairly low against the 52 week range. It hasn’t been a good year for the dollar so far as it’s trading down 6.26% in the year to date and the past week is down 1.51%. Traders will be looking for signs of strength and reasons why that might change. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 5th and the G20 meetings on Friday could also affect market perceptions.

And don’t forget 4th July is a federal holiday. US markets close early today and won’t reopen until 5th.

New Dow and Dax fun

new trading fun

With the Dow and DAX indexes at all time highs there has never been a better time to start playing the markets on Tiql. Will traders go long in the hope it continues or go short on the chance the bubble’s bursting?

Analysts have a mixed view of the markets as we start the week. For those new to this kind of market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), aka the Dow, is an important index people watch to get an idea about how the overall stock market is doing. It looks at the stocks of 30 different key US companies to see how they’re doing. The Dax index does the same for German companies.

Closing last week the Dow stood at 21394.76 going into the weekend. Gold has dropped 1% since the global trading week opened as analysts look ahead to the big banking speeches and traders move away from safe havens giving us an indication of rising markets. The Dax hit a record high last Tuesday as the eurozone looks stronger with positive market news across the week.

It’s an exciting time to have a go at Tiql’s newest games!


They’re all at it

A currency trader’s dream week

Most weeks there isn’t a speech in sight and now we know why. The heads of various banks around the world have ganged up to deliver a record 7 speeches in one week. Currency traders are in for a volatile ride.

European Central Bank President Draghi tops the bill with three speeches this week.

Monday 6.30pm GMT
Tuesday 9am GMT
Wednesday 2.30pm GMT

You have to wonder what he will have left to say by Wednesday but all three events are at the European Central Bank forum on Central Banking in Portugal. You could say he’s getting dinner, breakfast and lunch out of it.

Over in the UK, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak twice (Tuesday 11am GMT and Wednesday 2.30pm). He will be taking questions at a press conference on Tuesday after the release at 10.30am GMT of the BoE Financial Stability report. There have been murmurs about a rate rise so markets will be watching closely. Then he’s joining Draghi for the panel lunch at 2.30pm on Wednesday 28th.

Federal Chair Yellen gets in on the act on Tuesday at 6pm GMT talking about global economic issues in London, while Japanese BoJ Governor Kuroda is on the panel discussion on Wednesday at 2.30pm.



GBP taking a battering

GBP is playing like this right now

When PM May called the election eight weeks ago she had an enormous majority in the polls and was trying to capitalise on it. It takes quite a feat of bad management to reduce that to a hung parliament. But that’s exactly what’s happened and the uncertainty has caused no end of problems for GBP.

The once great currency is looking decidedly rocky so there is little hope BoE governor Carney can fix it when he speaks at the Mansion House tomorrow. Slightly confusingly it has been rescheduled to a breakfast speech at 8.30am but is still being called a dinner speech. The recent murmurs caused by 3 votes for a rate rise after poor economic performance and rising inflation will lead to traders and analysts looking for any clue on timescale. Some pundits are suggesting it’s very much a case now of when, not if, the rate will change.